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AU Trading Journal 🩵😈
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Contact and collabs： @auxbt X：https://x.com/au_xbt This channel documents AU’s trades, ideas, and research. Every trade includes the logic. Do not blindly copy, only follow if you understand and agree. Content is still being refined NFA DYOR
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| Дата | Залучення підписників | Згадування | Канали | |
| 04 липня | +2 | |||
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| 02 липня | +5 | |||
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My broad outlook for July. I'll publish a more detailed report tomorrow.
Overall, I remain bullish on the market. The credit market continues to support a risk on environment. Semiconductors, however, will most likely stay range bound as the sector continues to deleverage.
There are two key catalysts ahead for semiconductors: the SK hynix ADR listing and the upcoming Mag 7 earnings, where the market needs confirmation that Mag 7 capex remains intact. With that in mind, I've made the following portfolio adjustments.
https://x.com/i/status/2073060011497177329
| 2 | The Great Retreat. Preserve your capital. Meta is disgusting. | 1 557 |
| 3 | I sold all my 2x ETFs once I got back to breakeven. Semis and memory are just too weak. I'll keep some common shares instead.🥀 | 1 585 |
| 4 | $INTC : HSBC RAISES TARGET PRICE TO $200 FROM $100 | 1 628 |
| 5 |  Thanks, Trump😭🔥👊🏻🇺🇸🔥
$MU ! $MU ! $MU !
Micron! Micron! Micron! | 1 732 |
| 6 | By the way, as I mentioned in a previous weekly recap, gold did indeed bottom around 3950, and both BE and CRDO have recovered on improving fundamentals.
The level of crowding in the memory sector exceeded my expectations because of the Meta news. That was something I did not anticipate. | 1 555 |
| 7 | TRADERS OF SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATE FUTURES TRIM RATE HIKE BETS AFTER WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED JOBS DATA
To put it simply, the previous NFP reports were just setting the stage for today's jobs data ahead of Independence Day. That's why the earlier prints looked unusually weird and distorted. There have been a few times in history when the NFP released before Independence Day also triggered a massive rally in equities. So far, everything is playing out exactly according to my playbook. Looks like the stocks I bottom-fished yesterday are about to break even and turn a profit today | 1 601 |
| 8 | $MU has almost reached my target entry, so I started buying the dip. I also added $SNDK, $SOXL, and $INTC. Another name worth watching is $ICHR. It's a semicap stock that was green today while the rest of the sector was under pressure.
Tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls will likely be supportive for the market. Waller sounded somewhat dovish today, and I expect a similar tone tomorrow. A rally on the day before Independence Day would also be perfectly reasonable. | 1 689 |
| 9 | Meta has no AI. Semiconductors will move higher again after the deleveraging is over | 1 765 |
| 10 |  META IS DEVELOPING A CLOUD SERVICE TO MARKET ITS EXTRA AI PROCESSING CAPACITY.
lmao, $NBIS might survive, but names like $CRWV and $IREN are almost certainly done | 1 726 |
| 11 | I think Micron still has one more flush to shake out leveraged longs, either today or after Independence Day. The ideal entry is around the 20 MA, which is roughly 1045.
Yesterday's aggressive buying ahead of the Independence Day holiday pushed the broader market sharply higher, making today's price action look a bit unstable.
At the open, I think $CRDO could play catch up, while many of the stocks that have already run hard may see some profit taking. I'll share my full thoughts later | 1 732 |
| 12 |  +1Corning $GLW is still being driven by calls, expectations, and a partial valuation rerating.
After reading Morgan Stanley's report the day before yesterday, I took partial profits yesterday when the stock spiked at the open and quickly faded.
Right now, the stock is still largely trading on the optical fiber story. To truly grow into a $1 trillion market cap, it will have to wait until glass substrates begin shipping at scale | 1 709 |
| 13 | $INTC just hit another new high, but $MU and $skhynix are still being kept on a tight leash by institutions.
My guess is they're trying to keep SK hynix trading around its US IPO price range ahead of the listing. The real breakout may not come until after SK hynix starts trading in the US.
Meanwhile, almost every other memory and semiconductor name has gone parabolic. Looks like value investing in US equities still means staying diversified. | 1 805 |
| 14 | Since my first call, Corning $GLW is up 40%. $LITE is starting to look attractive now as well. Judging by the capital inflows and the large call option activity in LITE, it looks like 300G is about to be adopted. These are the only two US optical names I'm watching | 1 901 |
| 15 | It seems like everything in my portfolio is up except MU and INTC. GLW, semicap, SNOW, and NOW are all higher. I'm planning to take some profits from the winners and add to my MU and INTC positions into the close. July might kick off another rally in memory and semis | 1 868 |
| 16 |  GLW🔥 | 1 852 |
| 17 |  Semicap rallied sharply after SK Hynix and Samsung announced a significant increase in capital spending. $AMAT $LRCX $KLAC $ASML | 1 857 |
| 18 | Weekly recap and this week's playbook.
This ended up being a little longer than usual. Just writing down thoughts as they came. Going forward this section will move to Substack so everything is more organized. It will be free. Daily recaps will continue as usual.
This recap is divided into equities, technical analysis, sell side research and metals
https://x.com/i/status/2071423694413676747 | 2 020 |
| 19 | I didn't expect the bullish news out of Korea over the weekend to still be met with a selloff at today's open.
Just as I said on Friday, Monday was likely to see sentiment driven weakness, with the VIX moving higher. I think Monday and Tuesday will mark the final leg down.
I'm putting together a more detailed recap of this week and will share it soon | 1 855 |
| 20 | When we are short neoclouds like NBIS and CRWV, negative news just keeps coming
https://x.com/i/status/2071072401493033275 | 2 051 |
