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📊 Gold faces downward pressure as USD strengthens
Gold (XAU) experienced downward pressure on Monday as the U.S. dollar (USD) strengthened due to reduced expectations of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
👉 Possible effects for traders
Last week's report revealed that U.S. employment growth in August fell short of expectations. Still, the decline in the unemployment rate towards 4.2% and consistent wage growth signalled that the labour market remains relatively strong, reducing the likelihood of a larger Fed interest rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 71% probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) cut at next week's Fed meeting, with a 29% chance of a 50-bps reduction.
Additionally, the overall positive sentiment in equity markets damaged gold's safe-haven appeal. Wall Street's three major stock indices rebounded on Monday following a week of significant declines. On a broader scale, XAUUSD has been trading within a range of $2,470–$2,530 for the past three weeks as investors seek further clarity on the Federal Reserve's rate-cut trajectory.
XAUUSD declined during the Asian trading session. Today, the formal macroeconomic calendar is uneventful. Investors are holding off ahead of Wednesday's release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Both reports could impact expectations for a potential Fed rate cut. ‘Spot gold may retrace to $2,494 per ounce, following failure to break resistance at $2,507’, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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📊 EURUSD declines on the possibility of ECB rate cut
EURUSD continued a downward correction on Monday. The pair lost 0.46% and closed below the support level of 1.10500.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Friday's mixed U.S. labour data didn't clearly indicate whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) would opt for a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut or a more substantial 50-bps decrease at the next policy meeting. Market participants currently anticipate the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday for further guidance regarding the U.S. interest rate trajectory. However, the Fed has emphasised that employment remains a higher priority over inflation.
According to a Reuters survey, the headline CPI figures are projected to increase by 0.2% month-on-month in August, the same as in July. A weaker-than-expected report could bolster market expectations for a 50-bps reduction. Meanwhile, the data meeting expectations might leave the debate surrounding a 25-bps versus 50-bps rate cut unresolved. As noted by Charu Chanana, head of currency strategy at Saxo Bank, this uncertainty persists. The European Central Bank (ECB) will convene its policy meeting on Thursday. The regulator will probably reduce interest rates once again. However, the main focus will be on officials' statements at the press conference. Currently, traders are factoring in about 0.63 percentage points of anticipated easing by the ECB this year.
EURUSD has been moving sideways during Asian and early European trading sessions. The pair stays below the 1.10500 resistance level. Today, no major events that can influence this pair are expected to be released.
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📊 USDCAD is near two-week highs, but the fundamental trend is bearish
The Canadian dollar (CAD) gained 0.11% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday as USDCAD traders took profit on their long positions after a massive rally on Friday.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Friday's U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) data boosted the U.S. dollar, but a Canadian Employment report showed a rise in the unemployment rate, weakening the Canadian dollar and pushing USDCAD higher. Indeed, Canada's unemployment rate increased towards 6.6% in August, a three-year high, prompting economists to call for larger rate cuts from the central bank. ‘We continue to see a significant chance that central bankers will need to lower the policy rate in October by 50 basis points (bps) to avoid falling behind the curve’, said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group.
Last week, the Bank of Canada (BOC) cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points towards 4.25%. It was the third rate reduction in a row, and BOC governor Tiff Macklem said that deeper rate cuts could be implemented if the economy needed support. However, the market still expects the BOC to pursue a less dovish monetary policy than the Federal Reserve in the medium term. Therefore, the fundamental bearish pressure on USDCAD may persist for some time.
USDCAD was rising slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the macroeconomic calendar doesn't feature data releases that might significantly impact USDCAD. Still, traders should monitor the upcoming speeches by central bank officials for any new clues on future changes in monetary policy. Tiff Macklem and Fed members Michael Barr and Michelle Bowman will give speeches at 1:10 p.m., 2 p.m., and 4:15 p.m. UTC, respectively. As long as USDCAD is below the important 1.36000 level, bears will remain in control, and traders will likely prefer to sell the rallies.
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BTCUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
BTCUSD broke the resistance level of 56,980.00
👉General outlook
BTCUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 57,178.00.
Set your stop loss at 56,323.00 below the previous low ($8.55 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 58,033.00 ($8.55 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway just hit a $1 trillion market cap on August 28, marking a historic milestone as the first U.S. non-tech company to do so. With a 28% rally in 2024 so far, it’s outpacing the S&P 500’s 18% gain.
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Sunday Ki Study🎓
Learn all about recognizing common candlestick patterns 📈
Understanding these formations is key to decoding market psychology, anticipating trends, and gaining insights 🔥
Do let us know by reacting 👍 if you found this information useful.
Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial or investment advice.
Candlestick patterns are a tool for understanding market trends, but they do not guarantee future market behaviour. For a comprehensive understanding,
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📊 August 2024 Market Forecast Update! 📈
Get ready for an insightful August as we delve into the latest market trends and forecasts. Here’s a forecast for this month:
🟠 Economic Indicators:
– GDP Growth: Projected to remain steady at 2.5%.
– Unemployment Rate: Expected to stay flat at 4.1%.
🟠 Stock Market:
– Tech Sector: Continued innovation and strong earnings reports could drive growth.
– Energy Sector: Watch for fluctuations due to geopolitical developments.
🟠 Commodities:
– Oil Prices: Potential to stabilize around $75 per barrel.
– Gold: Potential increase as investors seek safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties.
🟠 Cryptocurrency:
– Bitcoin: Volatility remains, but long-term growth prospects look possible.
🟠 Global Influences:
– US-China Trade Relations: Any developments could impact global markets significantly.
– European Central Bank Decisions: Monetary policies and interest rate changes could influence market dynamics.
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