TheNebulator

Here is the Substack post I promised. Took me an extra couple days to write and post, on account of feeling under the weather.

I am writing a Substack piece about what I think just happened in Serbia, so I won't add much more to this. Suffice to say that I'm seeing a re-run of October 2000 and nuclear-level cope from people carried along by the carefully seeded and nurtured emotions about the entire affair, to the point where I have to re-evaluate some of my priors about national nature and the power of persuasion.

The "Student List" (sans actual students) won overwhelmingly. Vucic conceded less than 90 minutes after polls closed. I'm already being threatened over the post above, as if I'm some kind of Vucic apologist (!), just because I used a term "astroturfed." So you're telling me that in a supposedly unfree, colonial dictatorship a "group of citizens" led by collective Student Soviets of actors, sociologists and underwater basket-weavers, stood up a political party, funded a campaign, came up with nuclear-level PR and ran a list composed mainly of NGO operatives and professional EU liberals, and this is authentic? There's an easy way for the "Students" to prove they're not globalist shills of Brussels . I would be happy to be proven wrong if that means Serbia comes out on top. Having been through 2000, 2008 and 2020, I'm not holding my breath.

I am convinced that Russia has the orbital capability to disrupt or destroy Starlink satellites and that Musk knows this. He just reposted this analysis — which suggests he agrees not just with the first point, but the second as well. Otherwise, why throttle the signal and complain about Ukraine abusing the TOS?

Serbia is holding parliamentary elections tomorrow. I've criticized the current government plenty since 2012, but I have nothing but disdain for the astroturfed "Student list". They are literally doing the "Anyone but Him" thing the EU did in Hungary to oust Orban (and the US pioneered against Milosevic in 2000, in the first-ever color revolution), while offering nothing beyond vague generalities. "We are for Good Things and against Bad Things and if you vote for us Our Wonderful Children and Experts will run things and there will be rainbows and puppies!" is not a political platform, it's emotional manipulation, and quite frankly an insult to everyone's intelligence. Tomorrow we will see which faction is better at emotionally manipulating its voter base. Hell of a way to run a country! Hoppe was right, monarchies were better.

So far so... not much. A localized ceasefire in Alyoshki, presumably so the Russians can resupply the town under Ukraine's drone siege (what AA doing?) and no general armistice, which is what Zelya is desperately demanding. Zelya is now claiming Starlink is working normally again, while word on the street is that 404 tried to overclock the terminals so they would work at higher velocities, which SpaceX patched as a software glitch — hence the "shutdown" or "slowdown" that Trump, Musk, Rubio and Hegseth justly claimed had nothing to do with them. Either way, it should be shut off. In fact, Russia should have demanded it as a goodwill gesture from the US. Look, if you don't ask, the answer is always "no." Asking from a position of strength is no weakness, while expecting the other side to guess your thinking is no strength.

Results of Witkoff's trip to Russia: USA buys Russian diesel and deflects some of the consequences of attacking Iran, while getting a 74-year-old American sentenced for being a merc in the AFU, no questions asked. Russia gets... um (checks notes) kind words? Admittedly, Moscow doesn't need anything from Washington except a signature on the surrender papers. And it's certainly possible that Trump has been quietly negotiating just that re:404 while dressing it up as feelgood dealmaking. But I'll believe it when I see it.

Trump now has a third golden opportunity to dump Ukraine — or at least V. Zelensky — overboard like overdue ballast. This time the Ukrofuhrer has crossed the line, directly challenging the Empire by bombing Russian refineries (using US satellites and intel, obviously) when Trump told him not to. Regimes have been changed for less. Never mind US interests, i.e. fuel prices ahead of a congressional election, this strikes at the credibility of Washington itself. The Empire cannot be seen as weak. If Zelensky is allowed to bite the hand that feeds him, no vassal will ever want to behave. Sure enough, there’s plenty of chatter in MAGA circles about getting rid of the snorting actor. There is just as much counter-chatter designed to deter it by declaring it a “betrayal of Ukraine”. People forget that the USA owes Banderia nothing whatsoever. Not even an apology for the Orange revolution or the Maidan, because the Banderites were more than willing participants in both. And certainly not eternal funding for a war to the last Ukrainian. Trouble is, I don’t think Trump will seize on this opportunity. He could have done so in February 2025, after Zelya’s disastrous Oval Office visit, or in August 2025 after Anchorage. Both times he changed his mind after being nagged by the EU, Recucklicans and the media. Trump’s problem is that he’s too nice. He’s a kindly old boomer who still cares about being called mean names. Even Vance is somewhat squeamish. I know this is a controversial take, but think about it for a minute and you’ll realize it’s true. A little ruthlessness here would go a long way.

Accusations that Russia is somehow behind the Floydouts in France, Italy and Albania (!) are as absurd as they were predictable. Of course the failed EUroreich politicians are going to deflect all the blame for their malice and incompetence on the designated scapegoat. If you stop to think about it, the accusation doesn't pass the smell test. Street riots for the purpose of regime change — or fomenting chaos — is the favorite technique of the GAE. One can argue, as I have, that the demise of USAID has left this loaded weapon unattended for other bad actors to pick up and fire. But Russia? The one country in the world that has obstinately refused to use this weapon, even when it could gain immense advantages from doing so, on sheer principle? Yeah, no. Whether out of concerns about hypocrisy (re: Maidan 2014) or some other reason, color revolutions are something Moscow has firmly placed into the "we don't do that" category.

Russia has recently advertised this "Volna-Kupol/Garant" system that supposedly jams Starlink signal in a tactical radius. From what I can tell, there aren't enough of them to cover all the important rear area targets and having a jamming zone signals to the Ukrainians that something sensitive is there, so they are of limited usefulness. All of which makes me curious as to why they haven't been parked near refineries — along with mobile AA security teams — if the ukrodrones are that much of a nuisance. Seems like a no-brainer to this armchair tactician. Just so you don't think I keep complaining about problems and not offering solutions! 😎

If you hoped the "Russian bots" narrative would open the eyes of most normies to the level of psyops they are exposed to, well, too bad. Even after the whole thing was exposed as an attempt by the most disingenuous people ever to exploit the malicious and/or ignorant conflation of social media "bots" and crawlers indexing the web, the psyopped crowd chooses to believe that Ukrainian attacks on Yandex are somehow impacting the number of (alleged) "Russian bots" online. Do not count on "raising awareness" or "people waking up" or "truth setting you free" anymore. In the age of narratives, the prettiest lie wins and the psyop targets get emotionally attached to the ops they fell for, otherwise they might feel bad. And THAT is the supreme evil, to be avoided at all costs.

🇷🇺 🤝 🇺🇸

Putin's speech at Valdai was good, but his Q&A was great. I particularly loved the quips. — Should we break up the EU? "No need, it will fall apart on its own." — Were you embarrassed by Zelensky's visit to Belgrade? "Girls get embarrassed. We do politics." He even made sure the history lessons were short, sweet and to the point. And yes, absolutely, the world's problems can be traced back to NATO's aggression of 1999 and the forcible partition of Serbs (and Russians) during that decade. Which suggests that a more just and multipolar world order will require a revision of that situation, doesn't it? All in all, an encouraging hint of things to come. Now to follow through. (On that note, I am traveling for the next week or so, expect lighter posting).

EUrotrash is really pushing the envelope in escalating against Russia, either because they believe the Americans will back them up, or because they think they can win, based on some kind of miraculous conversion of nominal GDP into weapons of war. Except they can't, because none exists. And even if the Americans are up for fighting a war on behalf of the EUroreich (they have repeatedly said they were not), they lack the wherewithal to do so. And they know it, even if they try to pretend otherwise. Because the people making these decisions are bureaucrats disconnected from popular feedback and insulated from consequences of failure, they lack even the elementary awareness. So, here we are.

The last American troops have officially left Iraq, after more than 23 years. First there was the 2003 invasion, then "advisors and instructors," then the coalition against ISIS ("Inherent Resolve"), and now they're all done. Decamped off to Jordan, officially. Americans got all of their equipment out and there was no panicked scramble for airplane wheels, like in Kabul five years ago. That's not to say Iraq will fare any better than Afghanistan, since it's still dealing with ethnic and sectarian conflicts the Brits didn't care about when they invented it from whole cloth after WW1. Trump could have claimed this as a massive triumph of peace and repudiation of George W. Bush's neocon globalism, were it not for the whole Iran War thing next door. While I'm an outlier in believing it's not as much of a fiasco as it's being painted as, it has not done him any favors at home, to the point where the globalists could realistically get back into power soon. Pity.

Aleksandar Vučić is no longer president of Serbia. After almost 10 years, he has resigned — to run for prime minister in the upcoming snap election. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Unless the Globalists manage to color-revolution Serbia again in a month's time.

From the very start of the SMO, I have been puzzled by the Russian Defense Ministry reports. Are we doing body counts, or territory taken, or both? If this is about seizing ground, then why the massive strategic retreats (Kiev, Kherson, Kupyansk)? If this is about body counts, then territory should not matter. This ambiguity is at the heart of a perception mismatch between strategy and operations. Strategically, this is a war of attrition: pin the enemy's army at the front while eviscerating the rear; whatever breaks first you win. Yet operational reports are all about counting square inches taken and announcing the glorious liberation of Novozhopovka or some such. Make it make sense!

The entire UNSC "discussion" is an attempt to guilt-trip Russia into backing off and letting 404 survive. Emotional blackmail and hysterics all the way through. They believe, based on past behavior, that Russia is too nice and that this can be exploited. Lavrov's message was that Russia is ready to talk, but will NOT ease the pressure, because every time it went along with Euro "mediation" it got deceived, and the consequences were deadly. I can't really influence Putin's behavior, but I hope he hardens his heart. Ruthlessness is mercy upon ourselves, after all.

I've known the UN to be a total joke since the Yugoslav Wars of the 1990s, but I always thought it was due to GAE subversion. Watching the UNGA and UN Security Council "debates" has disabused me of this notion. Useless theatre, all of it — and the smaller and more insignificant the country, the louder it barks.

Trump has managed to "take" Greenland in the only way that mattered to him: basing and overflight rights plus veto over other countries' access, while Denmark continues to foot the bill, fly the flag and claim sovereignty on paper. Sovereign is he who decides the exception, remember?