Demographics Now and Then

Pro Natalist cash incentives without cultural change rarely yield sustained turnaround.  Programs like Poland’s Family 500+(dating to 2016),Italy’s 2020 Family Act(which included family allowances+subsidized childcare),& Singapore’s “Made for Family”, three of many that failed.

The most populous states in India by far are Uttar Pradesh & Bihar which have TFRs of 2.6 & 2.9. Uttar Pradesh has a far larger population that Brazil & Bihar has roughly the same population size as Mexico.

While population momentum will almost certainly get India to a peak of at least 1,625,000,000 billion people by 2050 after that year India starts its slow decline. India has seen TFR fall very modestly from 1.99 in 2019 to 1.88 in 2024. Urban TFR decline is the number to watch going forward. https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2057351376192131166

Would not be suprised at all if Latin America & the Caribbean have a higher median age than North America before 2050. Asia almost certainly will.

At the intersection of American demographics & politics, we see the internal conflict within the GOP between MAGA & America First. MAGA is largely backed by boomers & Xers with AF backed by Millennials & Zoomers. Thus currently MAGA has upper hand but this could shift quickly. The Democrats face the exact same generational time bomb. Corporate Democrats backed by lobby groups & those in the electorate aged 50+ are still managing to see off young more left wing upstarts in most primaries. But this may not last much longer.

China’s senior population reached 15% in 2024 and is projected to climb to 22.8% by 2035. A demographic shift occurring twice as fast as it did in Western Europe. Also by 2035 South Korea’s population will be almost 30% age 65 or better (a massive jump from sub 20% today).

If population of government controlled Ukraine is really below 25 million & not~29 million as thought then the TFR of women inside Ukraine is far higher than 0.77, which is based on higher population assumption. Still really bad but not Taiwanese or Thai or Singaporean levels. But if Uliutin’s estimates are anywhere near correct (I have serious doubts about his 22-25 million low claims) then don’t see Ukraine ever bouncing back in a meaningful way. Will be very hard to coax even 30-45% of Ukrainians outside the country back postwar. With annual deaths in the country close to 500,000 annually, Ukraine cannot afford this. Many polls show no more than 43% of Ukrainians outside the country plan to return and this may be overstating things. Also many of those who returned so far have been age 45 plus. If even half of the men currently not allowed to leave Ukraine migrate to join their wives and children abroad postwar the country could lose at least another 250,000 working age people. With reconstruction labor needs above 1,000,000 people this would be a true disaster. https://x.com/leonidragozin/status/2053411797693092305

30-40% of all Ukrainian women of prime child bearing age (so ~2,900,000 total) are currently living outside Ukraine as of 2026. This is in addition to up to 40% of Ukraine’s “last chance cohort” born 2008-2013 living abroad as well. A perfect storm. https://sceeus.se/publikationer/ukraines-alarming-demographics/

By 2050 our planet of by then ~9.5 billion will be aged & on the cusp of global population decline. By the half century mark Europe & North America will be heavily aged,& Asia, Latam & Oceania won’t be far behind. Only Africa will see less than 18% of their population being 65+. It won’t be 5.84% but closer to 9% in all likelihood as TFR will drop faster than this predicts but it will be the only region have less than 10% of the population be 65+.

The low fertility rate of Sikhs in India (~1.55) is putting the Sikh majority in the only Sikh State in the country, Punjab, in doubt.  In fact, if current trends continue Punjab will be only ~42.5% Sikh and 47.5% Hindu by 2050. 

Latin America is one of the fastest aging places on earth. In less than 25 years almost a fifth of the population will be over age 65. With fertility falling like a rock from Argentina to Colombia to Costa Rica perhaps far sooner.

TFR of ethnic Chinese majority of Singapore now roughly equal to the catastrophic Taiwanese fertility rate. Q1 2026 ethnic Chinese Singaporean TFR on 0.64 against ~0.65 for Taiwan. https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2051975072429043809

Deep population decline is right around the corner for China (10,000,000 plus annual decline in 2030s),Thailand (2040s), South Korea (late 2030s-2040s), Taiwan (2040s), Thailand (2040s),& much of Europe (2030s & 2040s). This will transform cities, towns, & rural areas worldwide.

The United States has more Spanish speakers than Spain and more than any other country except Mexico.

Africa is the only major area of the world above replacement, and not for that much longer either. Oceania is at replacement due to Papua New Guinea having a fertility rate of 3.22 as the other large countries there (Australia & New Zealand) are far below.

Births to Spanish born mothers in Spain crashed to just 212,030 (against 317,255 total births in Spain) in 2024 versus a probable 675,000 Spanish born mother births in 1976 (when there were very very few migrants in Spain).

Taiwan’s 2025 0.695 fertility rate is roughly 17% lower than the government's most pessimistic "worst-case"scenario of 0.84 released only two years ago.  & what’s worse is births are down a further 18% in first quarter of 2026 so TFR could go below 0.60! https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/04/06/2003855093

The existential demographic disaster for Ukraine from the war is not the loss of so many men, it is that ~56% of Ukrainian refugees currently abroad are under the age of 35. This includes 1,798,900 children who have now spent four years integrating into foreign education systems. Worth noting that (while far less extreme) Belarus is also seeing massive levels of emigration of working aged young people & Russia saw the wartime flight of 800,000 predominantly young men, mostly during 2022. Source: https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/more-third-ukraines-children-remain-displaced-four-years-war-unicef

U.S. may enter natural decline as early as 2030. If fertility rate remains stuck btwn 1.5-1.6(as seems likely as African American TFR will continue to plummet, Asian to stay low,& Hispanic to fall) natural change could hit a record low of approximately -392,000 annually by 2049. This is despite a possible increase in White TFR to as high as 1.8.  By 2050 Amish, Mennonites, Hutterites, & all other ultra high fertility Non Hispanic White groups in the U.S. will make up 3%+ of NHW births. In addition, “conservative” NHW TFR may be as high as 2.0-2.4. TFR of “liberal” NHWs may stay as low as 0.90-1.3 range. Hispanic, Black, Asian, & Native Americans have no ultra high fertility “breeder cults” so their headline TFR may not recover dramatically even under long time horizons. Best US may see is Czechia style 2019-21 rebound.

If true the Tibetan fertility rate is just crumbling. It was near replacement not long ago. 1.49 today. Not great and no longer the highest in the PRC.