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+140
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+140
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+430
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+1 141
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+92
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| 01 سپتامبر | 0 |
پستهای کانال
There are other catalysts on the horizon but they might be a bit further down the line.
Shorts got squeezed, people are positioned, risk of downward pressure increased.
My base case is not that we go down meaningfully.
But we are now dependent on more continuation flows rather than forced buyers and off positions.
| 2 | Good trade.
I personally think there is a decent chance of continuation on a weekly/monthly basis.
But my stance switched towards: I wouldn’t add more at these price levels.
I.e. higher probability for consolidation/range | 317 |
| 3 | My on-chain trading wallet hit 3x today.
1hour later I'm back down to +50% FML 🙃 | 741 |
| 4 | I‘m looking for a good trench group. Hit me up if you know somebody :) | 744 |
| 5 | I just saw that I wrote this unclear.
I long Bitcoin and I long Memecoins which other people short.
Not long bitcoin + short memes.
It’s long btc + long memes. 😅 | 744 |
| 6 | Nothing changed. Still bullish.
The short sellers will be the n+1 buyers for altcoins.
Long shorted memecoins.
Ride the squeeze. | 734 |
| 7 | I just read a new thesis from Arthur Hayes.
He provides an interesting angle for a more long-term bullish Bitcoin scenario.
As you know, my bullish bias is currently mostly short-term.
But if Hayes is right, there could be a catalyst for BTC to move higher for much longer.
I’ll try to track his thesis and the relevant indicators and let you know if I see something concrete developing. | 649 |
| 8 | Bitcoin running 😎 | 590 |
| 9 | I just made a 10x on RobinHood Chain, chat are we back? | 599 |
| 10 | I‘m starting to change my mind on altcoins/memecoins & think they can have a run the next ~2 weeks. | 597 |
| 11 | A new on-chain narrative just dropped:
A guy bought a controlling stake in a Nasdaq-listed penny stock with 92% short interest.
He then launched a memecoin with a buy/sell tax that buys back the stock.
→ massive short squeeze
→ stock go up
Incredible idea.
Unfortunately, he made all of this up.
The stock does not have that short interest, and he did not acquire a controlling stake. | 751 |
| 12 | A timeline on how I currently read the market:
Main thesis: Long-end yields continue to trend higher.
Question: Will this lead to further action from Bessent?
Yes? → giga long BTC.
What we know: Long-end yields are rising and Bessent has already announced larger Treasury buybacks starting in early September.
What we don’t know: How meaningful are these buybacks?
This is where opinions diverge.
Some argue they matter more than the market currently expects due to their impact on duration.
Others argue they’re practically irrelevant given their relatively small notional size.
I lean toward the first view, which is why I’m expressing it through a Bitcoin purchase.
Next question: What happens afterwards?
This is where the picture gets messy. I’ve identified two POVs that I particularly like:
1. Inflationary boom
Rising long-end yields are a consequence of stronger nominal economic activity, fiscal spending and the AI buildout.
Higher yields are largely doing what they’re supposed to do. We don’t have a problem and there’s no need to intervene.
2. Fiscal dominance
The US ultimately can’t or doesn’t want to tolerate higher long-end yields because of government financing and financial conditions.
Treasury/Fed therefore increasingly intervene to suppress them.
This is the debasement trade I mentioned previously.
The interesting part is that both can be true at the same time: an AI boom can push yields higher until they eventually reach a level that forces increasingly aggressive policy intervention. | 575 |
| 13 | A timeline on how I currently read the market:
Main thesis: Long-end yields continue to trend higher.
Question: Will this lead to further action from Bessent? Yes? → giga long BTC.
What we know: Long-end yields are rising and Bessent has already announced larger Treasury buybacks starting in early September.
What we don’t know: How meaningful are these buybacks?
This is where opinions diverge.
Some argue they matter more than the market currently expects due to their impact on duration.
Others argue they’re practically irrelevant given their relatively small notional size.
I lean toward the first view, which is why I’m expressing it through a Bitcoin purchase.
Next question: What happens afterwards?
This is where the picture gets messy. I’ve identified two POVs that I particularly like:
Inflationary boom: Rising long-end yields are a consequence of stronger nominal economic activity, fiscal spending and the AI buildout. Higher yields are largely doing what they’re supposed to do. We don’t have a problem and there’s no need to intervene.
Fiscal dominance: The US ultimately can’t or doesn’t want to tolerate higher long-end yields because of government financing and financial conditions. Treasury/Fed therefore increasingly intervene to suppress them.
This is the debasement trade I mentioned previously.
The interesting part is that both can be true at the same time: an AI boom can push yields higher until they eventually reach a level that forces increasingly aggressive policy intervention. | 1 |
| 14 | Levels to look for would be 74k and as low as 72k.
Anything lower and I would need to reevaluate my view on the market. | 467 |
| 15 | Added another tranche @77.3k | 530 |
| 16 | Added Bitcoin here @77.6k | 581 |
| 17 | No strong view on HYPE or whether institutions will allocate to it.
This was simply a case for how HYPE could substitute the wealth trickle-down effect we observed with BTC in previous cycles, but which is arguably getting smaller for BTC.
I think the case for Hyperliquid is twofold:
1. A beta on increasing crypto volumes → higher perp volume and Hyperliquid revenue.
2. A vehicle to capture alpha if you have/want to express the view that Hyperliquid steals market share from CEXs this cycle & therefore outperforms.
I have no strong view on either, but these are the two obvious metrics to consider imo. | 546 |
| 18 | Any ballpark on upside price target for it? | 466 |
| 19 | Another consideration is PUMP.
This is more speculative but:
PUMP could be a useful canary in the coal mine for the future trajectory of meme liquidity.
PumpFun is effectively a beta on memecoin volume. A forward looking market should price Pump based on their opinion on coming memecoin liquidity.
Pump down = market bearish on memes = increasingly rotation of finite capital
Pump up = market expects real liquidity inflow in memecoins
The combination of HYPE + PUMP could therefore be an interesting forward-looking signal.
HYPE ↑ = real liquidity entering crypto-native hands → potential meme liquidity ↑
PUMP ↓ = potential early warning that the meme liquidity pool is starting to run dry (with a caveat) | 8 |
| 20 | One interesting factor this cycle is HYPE.
It checks boxes for both investor profiles (institutional and retail) and could partially substitute for the wealth trickle-down effect previously observed from Bitcoin.
Institutional capital pushing HYPE higher increasingly trickles down to crypto-native holders, who are much more likely to recycle those gains into memes.
This is where my opinion deviates from giver.
I think HYPE could act as a bridge:
institutional capital → HYPE → crypto-native wealth effect → memes | 500 |
