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Посты канала
A new on-chain narrative just dropped:
A guy bought a controlling stake in a Nasdaq-listed penny stock with 92% short interest.
He then launched a memecoin with a buy/sell tax that buys back the stock.
→ massive short squeeze
→ stock go up
Incredible idea.
Unfortunately, he made all of this up.
The stock does not have that short interest, and he did not acquire a controlling stake.
| 2 | A timeline on how I currently read the market:
Main thesis: Long-end yields continue to trend higher.
Question: Will this lead to further action from Bessent?
Yes? → giga long BTC.
What we know: Long-end yields are rising and Bessent has already announced larger Treasury buybacks starting in early September.
What we don’t know: How meaningful are these buybacks?
This is where opinions diverge.
Some argue they matter more than the market currently expects due to their impact on duration.
Others argue they’re practically irrelevant given their relatively small notional size.
I lean toward the first view, which is why I’m expressing it through a Bitcoin purchase.
Next question: What happens afterwards?
This is where the picture gets messy. I’ve identified two POVs that I particularly like:
1. Inflationary boom
Rising long-end yields are a consequence of stronger nominal economic activity, fiscal spending and the AI buildout.
Higher yields are largely doing what they’re supposed to do. We don’t have a problem and there’s no need to intervene.
2. Fiscal dominance
The US ultimately can’t or doesn’t want to tolerate higher long-end yields because of government financing and financial conditions.
Treasury/Fed therefore increasingly intervene to suppress them.
This is the debasement trade I mentioned previously.
The interesting part is that both can be true at the same time: an AI boom can push yields higher until they eventually reach a level that forces increasingly aggressive policy intervention. | 286 |
| 3 | A timeline on how I currently read the market:
Main thesis: Long-end yields continue to trend higher.
Question: Will this lead to further action from Bessent? Yes? → giga long BTC.
What we know: Long-end yields are rising and Bessent has already announced larger Treasury buybacks starting in early September.
What we don’t know: How meaningful are these buybacks?
This is where opinions diverge.
Some argue they matter more than the market currently expects due to their impact on duration.
Others argue they’re practically irrelevant given their relatively small notional size.
I lean toward the first view, which is why I’m expressing it through a Bitcoin purchase.
Next question: What happens afterwards?
This is where the picture gets messy. I’ve identified two POVs that I particularly like:
Inflationary boom: Rising long-end yields are a consequence of stronger nominal economic activity, fiscal spending and the AI buildout. Higher yields are largely doing what they’re supposed to do. We don’t have a problem and there’s no need to intervene.
Fiscal dominance: The US ultimately can’t or doesn’t want to tolerate higher long-end yields because of government financing and financial conditions. Treasury/Fed therefore increasingly intervene to suppress them.
This is the debasement trade I mentioned previously.
The interesting part is that both can be true at the same time: an AI boom can push yields higher until they eventually reach a level that forces increasingly aggressive policy intervention. | 1 |
| 4 | Levels to look for would be 74k and as low as 72k.
Anything lower and I would need to reevaluate my view on the market. | 323 |
| 5 | Added another tranche @77.3k | 351 |
| 6 | Added Bitcoin here @77.6k | 381 |
| 7 | No strong view on HYPE or whether institutions will allocate to it.
This was simply a case for how HYPE could substitute the wealth trickle-down effect we observed with BTC in previous cycles, but which is arguably getting smaller for BTC.
I think the case for Hyperliquid is twofold:
1. A beta on increasing crypto volumes → higher perp volume and Hyperliquid revenue.
2. A vehicle to capture alpha if you have/want to express the view that Hyperliquid steals market share from CEXs this cycle & therefore outperforms.
I have no strong view on either, but these are the two obvious metrics to consider imo. | 359 |
| 8 | Any ballpark on upside price target for it? | 344 |
| 9 | Another consideration is PUMP.
This is more speculative but:
PUMP could be a useful canary in the coal mine for the future trajectory of meme liquidity.
PumpFun is effectively a beta on memecoin volume. A forward looking market should price Pump based on their opinion on coming memecoin liquidity.
Pump down = market bearish on memes = increasingly rotation of finite capital
Pump up = market expects real liquidity inflow in memecoins
The combination of HYPE + PUMP could therefore be an interesting forward-looking signal.
HYPE ↑ = real liquidity entering crypto-native hands → potential meme liquidity ↑
PUMP ↓ = potential early warning that the meme liquidity pool is starting to run dry (with a caveat) | 8 |
| 10 | One interesting factor this cycle is HYPE.
It checks boxes for both investor profiles (institutional and retail) and could partially substitute for the wealth trickle-down effect previously observed from Bitcoin.
Institutional capital pushing HYPE higher increasingly trickles down to crypto-native holders, who are much more likely to recycle those gains into memes.
This is where my opinion deviates from giver.
I think HYPE could act as a bridge:
institutional capital → HYPE → crypto-native wealth effect → memes | 359 |
| 11 | I’m getting increasingly bullish on Bitcoin and think it’s time to start buying.
At the same time, I’m becoming more cautious on alts.
The key difference for me is the marginal buyer.
BTC has a clear buyer N+1: ETFs, DATs, and Strategy add additional reflexivity.
Alts don’t have the same buyer ladder. The marginal bid increasingly looks like speculative retail rotating back from stalling AI/memory into crypto.
That can drive alts in the short term, but it’s a finite pool of capital that could ultimately run out.
One interesting factor this cycle is HYPE.
It checks boxes for both investor profiles (institutional and retail) and could partially substitute for the wealth trickle-down effect previously observed from Bitcoin.
Institutional capital pushing HYPE higher increasingly trickles down to crypto-native holders, who are much more likely to recycle those gains into memes.
This is where my opinion deviates from giver.
I think HYPE could act as a bridge:
institutional capital → HYPE → crypto-native wealth effect → memes
Another consideration is PUMP.
This is more speculative but:
PUMP could be a useful canary in the coal mine for the future trajectory of meme liquidity.
PumpFun is effectively a beta on memecoin volume. A forward looking market should price Pump based on their opinion on coming memecoin liquidity.
Pump down = market bearish on memes = increasingly rotation of finite capital
Pump up = market expects real liquidity inflow in memecoins
The combination of HYPE + PUMP could therefore be an interesting forward-looking signal.
HYPE ↑ = real liquidity entering crypto-native hands → potential meme liquidity ↑
PUMP ↓ = potential early warning that the meme liquidity pool is starting to run dry (with a caveat) | 351 |
| 12 | What will Bitcoin do next? | 345 |
| 13 | GM, Saylor just released his latest filing, which I interpret as very bullish.
As I laid out in my review last week, Strategy’s balance sheet is currently in a very healthy position.
They were now able to generate another ~$600m through the MSTR ATM, which was immediately deployed into Bitcoin purchases and STRC buybacks, while leaving their existing cash buffer largely untouched.
I view this as bullish despite the relatively high average BTC purchase price, because the more important signal is that the ATM vehicle is working again.
If MSTR can continue converting equity demand into fresh capital, and that capital into BTC, it creates the potential for renewed reflexivity once Bitcoin starts moving higher.
I’m still cautious on BTC in the immediate term, but once we get the spark, I expect this mechanism to amplify whatever move we get from the broader debasement trade. | 416 |
| 14 | GM, what‘s your trading plan for the coming days/weeks and how are you positioned? | 463 |
| 15 | My assessment of today:
First of all, there was a lot less volatility than expected and crypto has been surprisingly resilient so far.
Relative to precious metals, BTC + alts are actually holding up quite well. Maybe we’re seeing some mean reversion after months of underperformance, but let’s see where the day closes.
Volatility around events like this can sometimes come in delayed.
——
Regarding macro:
Warsh was somewhat hawkish, but not extremely so. He made the case for a strong labor market and persistent inflation, providing a reasonable baseline for a small hike in September.
Odds of a September hike increased from ~35% to ~50%.
I don’t think one or two hikes are a big deal overall.
The bond reaction was probably the most interesting part.
I was following two somewhat conflicting theses going into today.
One was that renewed hike risk could put additional pressure on the long end, worsening the Treasury problem and strengthening the case for eventual intervention/debasement.
^^^ this is essentially debasement trade on steroids
So far, that did NOT happen.
Instead, the front end repriced hawkishly while the long end remained relatively well behaved.
The competing thesis was that one or two credibility hikes could actually be bullish for long bonds by helping re-anchor inflation expectations / term premium.
So far, today’s reaction supports that thesis.
In my view, this somewhat weakens the extreme case for the debasement trade. It doesn’t take it off the table, but the magnitude decreased.
The signal from today:
The broader debasement trade thesis has not been rejected, but it does weaken the idea that even a small Fed hike would immediately make the long-end problem worse.
I remain net bullish Bitcoin, especially given how well it’s holding up on a relative basis.
But let’s see where we close today and wether the relative strength stays. | 538 |
| 16 | Good comment.
Sure, some degree of caution is already priced in, but ultimately it depends on what he says.
If he comes out super bearish, we’ll definitely go down.
If he comes out neutral, then yes, markets could spike higher alone from the fact that the flows you mentioned return. | 484 |
| 17 | As many people think Kevin.W speech today will cause big correction, the effect will be deminished. I agree on the increased volatility, but dont think we will have sharp correction. | 458 |
| 18 | Good morning,
today is an important day:
There’s an important press conference (Jackson Hole) where Kevin Warsh (new FED chair succeeding J. Powell) will deliver remarks.
The market considers this event as vital signal for the coming monetary policy.
His comments could potentially trigger a sharper correction and significant moves in the markets.
What ever you are trading today be aware of potentially increased volatility. | 515 |
| 19 | Gm, big day today.
I hope for a good entry.
Maktub | 92 |
| 20 | I also expect AI stocks to trade lower. | 11 |
