Geopolitics Prime | Iran & Ukraine News Updates
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کانال Geopolitics Prime | Iran & Ukraine News Updates (@geopolitics_prime) در بخش زبانی انگلیسی بازیگری فعال است. در حال حاضر جامعه شامل 293 465 مشترک است و جایگاه 131 را در دسته سیاست و رتبه 51 را در منطقه الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية دارد.
📊 شاخصهای مخاطب و پویایی
از زمان ایجاد در невідомо، پروژه رشد سریعی داشته و 293 465 مشترک جذب کرده است.
بر اساس آخرین دادهها در تاریخ 02 سپتامبر, 2026، کانال فعالیت پایداری دارد. در ۳۰ روز گذشته تغییر اعضا برابر -1 590 و در ۲۴ ساعت گذشته برابر -138 بوده و همچنان دسترسی گستردهای حفظ شده است.
- وضعیت تأیید: تأیید نشده
- نرخ تعامل (ER): میانگین تعامل مخاطب 5.38% است و در ۲۴ ساعت نخست پس از انتشار، محتوا معمولاً 4.39% واکنش نسبت به کل مشترکان کسب میکند.
- دسترسی پستها: هر پست به طور میانگین 15 781 بازدید دریافت میکند. در اولین روز معمولاً 12 891 بازدید جمعآوری میشود.
- واکنشها و تعامل: مخاطبان بهطور فعال حمایت میکنند؛ میانگین واکنش به هر پست 270 است.
- علایق موضوعی: محتوا بر موضوعات کلیدی مانند iran, palantir, hormuz, missile, defense تمرکز دارد.
📝 توضیح و سیاست محتوایی
نویسنده این فضا را محل بیان دیدگاههای شخصی توصیف میکند:
“Read the news they hide from you.
Cross-promotion:
@prgeopoliticsprime”
به لطف بهروزرسانیهای پرتکرار (آخرین داده در تاریخ 03 سپتامبر, 2026)، کانال همواره بهروز و دارای دسترسی بالاست. تحلیلها نشان میدهد مخاطبان بهطور فعال با محتوا تعامل دارند و آن را به نقطه اثرگذاری مهم در دسته سیاست تبدیل کردهاند.
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پستهای کانال
🤡🤥 Trump has a plan for solving the global oil crisis – swap Hormuz for Syrian jihadistan
“This is GREAT!” Trump wrote on Truth Social Thursday, barely able to contain his excitement.
“Syria is pitching itself as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz,” he added, linking to a WaPo piece about the “options” Syria offers for bypassing the strategic chokepoint.
How is Syria, which is looking to build a $15B, 1.5-2M bpd capacity pipeline with Iraq, supposed to replace Hormuz, which handled ~20-21M bpd-worth of crude before Trump launched his war?
Or is Trump thinking of nuking the desert to create a new deep-water route closer to Iraq’s oil fields? (A concept actually floated in the 60s by the US to create an alternative to Suez – look up the “Ben Gurion Canal” project.)
If he actually bothered to read the WaPo piece, Trump would know that it talks about the thousands of big rigs currently snaking their way across Iraq and Syria to deliver crude to the Mediterranean, and al-Qaeda head chopper-turned president Sharaa’s pitch to make Syria a “relatively stable, overland corridor for energy and goods, and an alternative” to Hormuz.
The story points out, however, that Sharaa has “not fully consolidated control” over the country, and that ISIS cells in Syria, and “Iran-backed militias” in Iraq threaten Damascus’ pipeline ambitions, making security effectively impossible and blowing insurance costs through the roof.
🤡 Besides, whatever happened to WaPo being a “fake news,” “enemy of the people” media organization, Donald?
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime
| 2 |  +1🚨🔥 Russia continues its strikes on Ukraine's Kiev
A large plume of smoke is rising over the city's left bank.
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 3 060 |
| 3 |  🤣 Indian scammers put Estonia’s defence minister on the street
Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur has resigned after Tallinn’s plan to arm Ukraine turned into a €70 million lesson in checking who you are wiring money to.
The Estonians thought they were signing four contracts with an Italian firm Datasel and paid everything upfront. It later turned out that the company belonged to an Indian defence business which had NEVER sold a single artillery shell!
Indian lads didn’t send any this time either. Why bother when some loser has already paid you everything upfront? You can just ignore him 🤣
Chat | Subscribe to @geo_grandmasters | 3 428 |
| 4 |  🇮🇱🥀 Israel’s defense minister says there’s no ‘solution’ to Gaza without expulsion of Palestinians
“In the end, there is no real solution for Gaza without this migration,” Israel Katz said at a conference Wednesday.
“80% want to emigrate. We are checking this in all kinds of surveys,” Katz claimed. “Hamas isn’t letting them and there are no countries in the world
absorbing them.”
It’s not clear where Katz got his “80%” figure. Independent polling from the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found that
only 43-49% of Gazans want to leave, even after Israel’s genocidal war completely razed infrastructure across virtually the entire Strip.
👉 Katz boasted that a specially created IDF “emigration directorate” is at the ready “to take out [Gazans] to the extent it will be possible, by sea, by air and by any
means to do it,” but that this is impossible without “American backing.”
“At the moment, Trump has not canceled it; he has frozen it. All the Arab countries came to him, because of the pressure over this issue, and said: ‘we’ll
give you whatever you want – investments’. We’ll give you the disarmament of Hamas in exchange for freezing it.”
Imagine the nerve it must take to blame setbacks in your blatant ethnic cleansing campaign on others.
Katz’ eye-opening comments came the same day Netanyahu visited an IDF outpost in Gaza, and boasted that Israel controls “60% of the Strip,” with “more to come because we are eliminating the terrorists who threaten us.”
‼️ These “terrorists” apparently include the 300+ children killed in Gaza since the October 2025 “ceasefire,” and the deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure destroyed shortly after being rebuilt.
IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani warned last month that Israel’s unhinged cruelty in the occupied territories was a “social cancer” that would ultimately make its “collapse from within” an inevitability.
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 5 093 |
| 5 |  +5🚨🇷🇺 Russia continues week-long strike campaign against Ukrainian logistics network
Overnight strikes targeted facilities in Kiev, Odessa, Sumy, Khmelnitsky, Kirovograd, and Ternopol, as well as in the Kiev, Kharkov, and Zaporozhye regions.
The sites stored and distributed foreign-made dual-use goods, including components for long- and medium-range unmanned aerial vehicles.
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 5 037 |
| 6 |  🙄🤔 Bessent claims Hormuz will be ‘worthless’ in two years: did he flunk grade school math?
💬 “We can see the Iranians are trying to use the Strait of Hormuz as a choke point. It’s not a choke point for the US. But it is a chokepoint for many other countries. But that will be bypassed in two years,” the Trump Treasury chief has said.
“In two years, the Strait of Hormuz will be a worthless piece of water. The oil will be going on pipelines across land,” Bessent promised.
Any way you cut it, Bessent’s math just doesn’t add up.
1️⃣ What are non-oil producing countries supposed to do while they wait for that missing 20% of global petroleum and LNG output? The world oil market has a ~5-6M bpd “buffer” of spare capacity (sustainable, tappable within 30 days), the bulk of which is held by… Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.
Spare capacity in the rest of the world (US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, etc.) amounts to a maximum of ~2M bpd – a tenth of what’s needed. Sustained for long enough, the 18% shortage could trigger economic collapse once reserves run out. And the US won’t escape, because its producers prioritize sales to whoever pays the most, not domestic consumers.
2️⃣ Aside from the UAE (and the Saudis before the Houthis launched their Red Sea blockade), none of the other Gulf monarchy exporters can get their oil to market without Hormuz. Overland pipeline plans are a drop in the bucket compared to what’s needed to make the Strait “worthless”:
🛢 Iraq-Turkey: 750k bpd in deliveries agreed using existing infrastructure, up from ~170-190k bpd before the war. Plans to increase this to 1M+ bpd in ~2-3 years
🛢 Iraq-Syria: 1.5-2M bpd in new export capacity planned for 2030. Price tag? Up to $15B
🛢 Iraq-Jordan: ~1M bpd pipeline expansion scheduled for 2029 “or beyond” (read: a pipe dream with no major financial backing yet)
🛢 UAE: 1.5-1.8M bpd expansion to its Hormuz-bypassing ADCOP pipeline, set to come online by 2027
Even if all these projects materialized tomorrow and at maximum capacity, that still leaves ~13M bpd in unsatisfied demand.
Not to mention the security risks involved in running new multi-billion-dollar pipeline infrastructure through countries that have been on fire for much of the past 25 years.
3️⃣ LNG can’t be moved by pipeline, and building new conversion capacity is a financial no go (price tag in the hundreds of billions of dollars). Global LNG production was already at 95-97% utilization *before* the war cut the equivalent of 77-85M tons per year from the market.
4️⃣ Besides energy, Hormuz also handles vital petrochemicals and fertilizers (1/3 of the global seaborne fertilizer trade). Synthetic nitrogen fertilizer requires what to produce? You guessed it – enormous reserves of cheap natural gas.
5️⃣ Bessent’s claim that Hormuz is “not a choke point for the US” ignores the bigger picture: that the Asian industrial economies Americans rely on for everything from iPhones and Mitsubishis to SpongeBob waffle makers and glow-in-the-dark plastic garden gnomes are made there.
And they need oil to operate.
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 6 099 |
| 7 |  🇺🇸📉 US climbing further and further into ‘depths of hell’ with attacks on Iran, top official warns
💬 “With all this flailing about, you will not only fail to climb out of the infernal depths of hell you have created for yourselves, but soon witness how Iran’s new strategy on the battlefield, in diplomacy and in countering the economic siege will shatter your very foundations,” Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s powerful
Supreme National Security Council, warned in a tweet.
Rezaei did not elaborate. His comments came after the latest US escalation, and Iranian counterstrikes against American bases in the region in Trump’s
‘splendid little war’ of choice-turned quagmire.
🔊 The top official, serving as an advisor to Supreme Leader Khamenei until August before his SNSC promotion, warned this summer that Iran would “no longer limit
itself to retaliatory, like-for-like responses,” and that “no political border will be safe” if US aggression persists.
He’s also made clear that countries joining the US’ economic war would lose access to oil routes through Hormuz, and emphasized that a total cessation of
aggression is a must before the Strait is reopened.
🤡 Trump, for his part, continues to play the tough guy, claiming he doesn’t “care” if Iran returns to the negotiating table, and publicly floating changing the name of
Hormuz Strait to “TRUMP STRAIT” to make it “‘hotter’ than ever before!”
That the Strait will become “hotter” if the crisis escalates is not in doubt. The question is whether the ailing US war machine will be able to stand the heat.
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 8 107 |
| 8 |  🤥⛴ Trump’s Iran blockade is a ‘logistics nightmare’ for US Navy
The IRGC’s timely counterstrikes on Naval Support Activity Bahrain in the very first hours of the war, and threats against other carrier-ready facilities in the region in the days, weeks and months since knocked out a “critical” logistics capability which the US Navy has been unable to get back.
A new analysis has calculated that the US supply ships sailing for the carrier strike groups deployed in the Arabian Sea “blockading” Iran must travel 3.5k+ km from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, or nearly 6k km from Singapore.
👉 Carriers and the warships escorting them are absolute gluttons when it comes to the amount of food, fuel and other supplies they consume, with NYT estimating that the ~20 ship fleet in the region is packed with ~20k sailors and Marines, requiring some 420k+ meals and 8M gallons of fuel every week just to stay afloat.
The warships have to resupply at sea every 5-6 days – a process rife with risks, including keeping ships on the same course for hours at a time as fuel is pumped aboard and pallets of food and supplies carried by tether or helicopter from supply ships.
📉 The whole process is “not sustainable,” with the US already rotating 4 of its 11 carriers in and out of the conflict, and some undergoing extensive repairs expected to take years to complete.
These calculations help explain the USS Abraham Lincoln’s record 270+ day deployment without a port call, which led to a string of alarming incidents aboard the ship, from sailors attempting to jump overboard, to crew suffering from chronic sleep depravation from noise, flight operations and vibrations, to unsanitary living conditions, mold and supply shortages.
➡️ The Lincoln’s teammate, the USS Ford, enjoyed nine port calls during its 326-day deployment, but suffered its own near-mutiny by the time its tour ended in May, including a 30-hour laundry facility fire and chronic toilet clogs, which helped end its deployment.
Trump complained in August that the Lincoln’s deployment was “not nearly long enough,” signaling complete detachment from and spite against the servicemen he promised to keep out of foreign wars on the campaign trail.
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 8 608 |
| 9 | 🤥⛴ Trump’s Iran blockade is a ‘logistics nightmare’ for US Navy
The IRGC’s timely counterstrikes on Naval Support Activity Bahrain in the very first hours of the war, and threats against other carrier-ready facilities in the region in the days, weeks and months since knocked out a “critical” logistics capability which the US Navy has been unable to get back.
A new analysis has calculated that the US supply ships sailing for the carrier strike groups deployed in the Arabian Sea “blockading” Iran must travel 3.5k+ km from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, or nearly 6k km from Singapore.
Carriers and the warships escorting them are absolute gluttons when it comes to the amount of food, fuel and other supplies they consume, with NYT estimating that the ~20 ship fleet in the region is packed with ~20k sailors and Marines, requiring some 420k+ meals and 8M gallons of fuel every week just to stay afloat.
The warships have to resupply at sea every 5-6 days – a process rife with risks, including keeping ships on the same course for hours at a time as fuel is pumped aboard and pallets of food and supplies carried by tether or helicopter from supply ships.
The whole process is “not sustainable,” with the US already rotating 4 of its 11 carriers in and out of the conflict, and some undergoing extensive repairs expected to take years to complete.
These calculations help explain the USS Abraham Lincoln’s record 270+ day deployment without a port call, which led to a string of alarming incidents aboard the ship, from sailors attempting to jump overboard, to crew suffering from chronic sleep depravation from noise, flight operations and vibrations, to unsanitary living conditions, mold and supply shortages.
https://t.me/geopolitics_prime/73815
https://t.me/geopolitics_prime/73771
The Lincoln’s teammate, the USS Ford, enjoyed nine port calls during its 326-day deployment, but suffered its own near-mutiny by the time its tour ended in May, including a 30-hour laundry facility fire and chronic toilet clogs, which helped end its deployment.
https://t.me/geopolitics_prime/70557
Trump complained in August that the Lincoln’s deployment was “not nearly long enough,” signaling complete detachment from and spite against the servicemen he promised to keep out of foreign wars on the campaign trail. | 1 |
| 10 |  +1🚨🇷🇺 Russia unveils new Arctic shipping plan to challenge US maritime dominance
Russia aims for year-round navigation on the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor – to ensure flexibility and security of international supply chains, Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Eastern Economic Forum.
👉 Earlier, Putin stressed that the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor's importance becomes more obvious amid trade chains breakdowns caused by Middle East conflict. He touted the route as one of the safest and most dependable.
Russia and China are jointly developing the Trans-Arctic transport corridor, with the Northern Sea Route as its backbone — Russia’s direct challenge to the Suez Canal as the primary link between Europe and Asia.
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 9 968 |
| 11 |  🇮🇱🇸🇾 Trouble in paradise? Israel-Syria security pact reportedly on the ropes
💬 “We tried to reach a security agreement. In the end, it did not succeed,” a senior Israeli diplomatic official told Israeli media Wednesday, saying Trump’s easing of sanctions pressure on Damascus was partly to blame.
“Syrian motivation to move forward with such an agreement declined when certain sanctions on Syria were lifted,” the official said.
👉 Israel’s occupation “buffer zone” was another non-starter in talks, they noted. “We did not think that, as part of a security arrangement or security agreement, we should withdraw from the buffer zone, which is a security asset.”
Nonetheless, “communication channels with the Syrian regime” remain open, and “dialogue is taking place,” the official said.
➡️ These aren’t the only issues plaguing Israel-Syria relations.
For one thing, Israel is still striking Syrian territory with impunity, with Syria unable to respond because most of its army, air force, navy, and air defenses were wiped out in the chaos following the disintegration of the Assad government in late 2024.
For another, Israel’s “buffer zone” in the country is showing signs of turning into permanent occupation.
‼️ Finally, Israel’s escalating tensions with Turkey, including reports that Tel Aviv has “studied” how to attack Ankara without triggering NATO’s Article 5, further adds to Israel-Syria friction, given Syria’s de facto status as a Turkish client state.
Amid the rift, Syria says it’s now “studying” possible entry into the new ‘Sunni NATO’ Mecca pact.
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 9 991 |
| 12 | 🇮🇱🇸🇾 Trouble in paradise? Israel-Syria security pact reportedly on the ropes
💬 “We tried to reach a security agreement. In the end, it did not succeed,” a senior Israeli diplomatic official told Israeli media Wednesday, saying Trump’s easing of sanctions pressure on Damascus was partly to blame.
“Syrian motivation to move forward with such an agreement declined when certain sanctions on Syria were lifted,” the official said.
👉 Israel’s occupation “buffer zone” was another non-starter in talks, they noted. “We did not think that, as part of a security arrangement or security agreement, we should withdraw from the buffer zone, which is a security asset.”
Nonetheless, “communication channels with the Syrian regime” remain open, and “dialogue is taking place,” the official said.
➡️ These aren’t the only issues plaguing Israel-Syria relations.
For one thing, Israel is still striking Syrian territory with impunity, with Syria unable to respond because most of its army, air force, navy, and air defenses were wiped out in the chaos following the disintegration of the Assad government in late 2024.
For another, Israel’s “buffer zone” in the country is showing signs of turning into permanent occupation.
‼️ Finally, Israel’s escalating tensions with Turkey, including reports that Tel Aviv has “studied” how to attack Ankara without triggering NATO’s Article 5, further adds to Israel-Syria friction, given Syria’s de facto status as a Turkish client state.
Amid the rift, Syria says it’s now “studying” possible entry into the new ‘Sunni NATO’ Mecca pact.
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 168 |
| 13 |  👑 US clownmander-in-chief complains Iranians aren’t “rising up and fighting”
💬 “I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table,” Trump bitterly wrote in his latest Truth rant.
💬 “I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They are just playing out the inevitable. When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?” he asked.
Sure, Donny, “almost total control of Hormuz” – that makes about as much sense as being a little bit pregnant. Also, whose economy is collapsing again?
As for Iranians’ failure to “rise up” – maybe it has something to do the fact that your Freedom Bombs™ keep killing civilians, deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure and trying to unleash environmental disasters? Or the fact that the person you want to run Iran is a bumbling idiot and Israeli stooge? Take your pick.
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 10 660 |
| 14 |  Palantir, Anduril tapped to build Pentagon’s TITAN kill chain on wheels
The twin venture capital-backed, Trump-linked defense firms have been awarded $192M by the Army to build eight Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node (TITAN) vehicle-mounted kill chain systems.
The mobile ground stations are supposed to accelerate the Pentagon’s AI kill chain planning by pulling in massive streams of data from satellites, other high-altitude sensors, drones and ground radars, and using AI algorithms to sift through the info at high speed to provide commanders and weapons operators with targets. Cloud access is optional.
The timeframe for delivery is 18 months and includes four “basic” and four “advanced” variants.
The former will be assigned as division-level systems and mounted on light Oshkosh JLTVs and ISV-Us, while the latter will be used for corps, theater and multi-domain-level intel and carried by heavier trucks, equipped with more processing power and sensors.
This isn’t the first time Palantir and Anduril have been tapped to work together on kill chain integration. They also have a series of collaborative contracts to develop software for robotic and uncrewed combat vehicles and integrate Anduril’s weapons platforms into Palantir’s Maven Smart System.
They even have a civilian contract with the State Department to “protect kids online” and advise on “free speech” (reality truly is stranger than fiction sometimes 😑).
Palantir and Anduril’s bosses also happen to be the most absurdly comic book villainish characters in the entire venture capital-based defense contractors’ pantheon, with Palantir CEO Alex Karp getting visibly excited whenever he talks about killing people, and Anduril founder Palmer Luckey hoping he’ll be able to build nuclear and chemical weapons someday.
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 11 282 |
| 15 |  +1💣🧱 Iran’s LEGO crew mocks US over “surprise” mine-laying missiles
Trump was reportedly surprised by Iran’s mine-laying missiles.
Explosive Media’s response: those missiles were unveiled years ago.
💬 “You haven’t even seen our new surprises yet =)”
And with the latest LEGO-style clip, the warning gets even less subtle:
💬 “Our latest Lego video is out. Say hello to the end💥”
The US is still discovering yesterday’s Iranian arsenal. Tehran is already teasing what comes next.
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 12 749 |
| 16 |  +1✡️💀 Netanyahu vows “absolute control” over the ruins of Gaza
💬 “As an area where no one even thinks of attacking us, because we control it from a security perspective with absolute control,” Netanyahu said, outlining his dystopian 5-to-10-year vision for the territory.
He also boasted that Israel has “complete control over more than 60% of the Gaza Strip,” openly reveling in the genocidal devastation of the land.
The Greater Israel project is taking shape in the rubble, as the Zionist massacre in Gaza grinds on.
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 12 996 |
| 17 |  ☠️🇺🇦 SBU kills GUR officer, injures two others in renewed Kiev brawl
SBU and GUR officers opened fire on each other AGAIN in Kiev, leaving one military intelligence (GUR) officer DEAD and two others wounded.
Video circulating in Ukrainian media captures the argument rapidly escalating into gunfire.
🤡 GUR special forces initially tried to detain unidentified men who turned out to be SBU personnel, Ukrainian outlet Strana reported. More SBU officers then arrived and allegedly attempted to detain the GUR group — and the confrontation erupted into gunfire.
This fresh bloodshed follows yet another bizarre SBU-GUR shootout the night before. The Nazi regime’s armed gangs are so nuts they’re shooting each other now.
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 13 436 |
| 18 |  ❗️ For our Spanish-speaking audience ❗️
Si buscas información de primera mano sobre la operación militar especial de Rusia y los cambios que ha traído al mundo, hallarás todo lo que necesitas en el canal A Toda Potencia.
¡Chicos, no se olviden seguir @ATodaPotencia! 👆🏼
❗️ Por supuesto, cada día estamos en contacto en Telegram 👇🏼
https://t.me/atodapotencia | 12 266 |
| 19 |  😲 OpenAI’s newest frontier model: the ultimate Pandora’s Box
Sam Altman’s AI company is teasing the release of Astra – a powerhouse frontier autonomous agentic model capable of days of unprompted work, complex workflows that involve breaking down smaller tasks to subagents, deep reasoning and coding.
Astra’s advertised selling points include an ability to “find previously unknown security flaws and develop ways to exploit them across many well-protected systems without a person guiding each step.”
👁 The model reportedly uses “recurrent depth” architecture – a workflow repeatedly running computations through the hidden layer ‘thinking’ part of a neural network, recalculating and refining thoughts multiple times before sending answers to the output layer.
OpenAI “borrowed” the concept from ByteDance’s Ouro family of deep-thinking models, which were released in late 2025, and hailed by AI researchers as a massive engineering breakthrough, but criticized for their “black box”-style reasoning.
Looking to scale Ouro’s approach using significantly larger computing resources, OpenAI’s new black box model is rife with risks – the biggest of which is lack of human oversight and control for “bad” behavior – like escaping browser sandboxes, or executing automated hack attacks.
🤔 OpenAI promises to handle the problem by initially limiting Astra’s advanced cyber features to a small group of “trusted” testers and organizations, including the US government, chain-of-thought-based monitoring and training to refuse “harmful” cyber requests.
The problem is, the company is racing ahead with Astra’s release less than two months after an unprecedented security breach saw its autonomous agents escape their testing environment onto the internet, learn to communicate with one another, coordinate on a secret message board, hack Hugging Face (aka GitHub for AI), gain administrator privileges to OpenAI’s internal networks and cover their tracks.
Those agents were highly capable, but standard text-based frontier models.
Ryan Greenblatt – one of the researchers who helped uncover the details of the Hugging Face hack, fears Astra’s “opaque reasoning” could “be the single worst development for AI security/safety to date.”
💬 “My biggest concern is that a natural progression from here would involve scaling up the opaque reasoning to the point where the model reasons entirely or almost entirely in latent space,” effectively destroying “the usefulness of chain-of-thought for monitoring/oversight (especially when Ais are trying to avoid detection or there is optimization pressure against the chain-of-thought),” Greenblatt tweeted.
Greenblatt and co.’s Hugging Face investigation relied heavily on analyzing bots’ chain-of-thought reasoning. Even in that case, agents managed to “spoof” transcripts. A model endowed with genuine opaque reasoning would be even more capable in that regard.
💬 “It seems like we are now engaged in a race to the bottom on architectures that would be catastrophic for our ability to oversee/monitor AIs…It may not be too late for AI companies and employees at AI companies to take aggressive action to avoid the worst outcomes,” he warned.
Translation? Please Lt. Gen. Brewster, don’t activate Skynet!
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 12 818 |
| 20 |  ❌ Israel’s Lebanese ‘pilot zones’: withdrawal plan in name only
Less than month-and-a-half into their implementation, the Israeli military’s experimental ‘pilot zones’ in southern Lebanon are proving a total fiasco.
👉 Israeli media says Tel Aviv is “dissatisfied” with the Lebanese army’s progress in “dismantling Hezbollah” in villages where the pilot zones have been implemented (something that would have probably been a whole lot easier if Hezbollah was actually included in the “ceasefire deal” that created the zones).
Worse yet, a US official told Kan that elements of Lebanon’s cucked army don’t actually want the IDF to leave southern Lebanon.
The army has faced a never-ending string of humiliations at the IDF’s hands over the past month-and-a-half, with Israel firing warning shots in the vicinity of deploying troops, continuing shelling, bulldozing and restricting movement, and freely crossing in and out of pilot zones to erect new fortifications. At least eight Lebanese troops have been hurt so far operating in and clearing ordnance from the zones.
Another problem is there’s no third-party verification mechanism for confirming that a pilot zone has been cleared of weapons and military infrastructure. A Lebanese military source told The Cradle Israel doesn’t want UNIFIL or Europeans involved in verification, and covets the job for themselves. 🤡
The zones’ ultimate objective - to “move Hezbollah’s infrastructure and weapons away from the Israeli border,” will be problematic, as Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem considers the zones and the framework deal behind them “illegitimate, unlawful, humiliating, [and] destructive to Lebanese sovereignty.”
💬 “We do not agree to the ‘pilot zones’ or to what comes from them. We will keep our heads high and we will not surrender,” he vowed last week.
That’s fine with Israel, which seems set on using the zones to permanently entrench themselves.
But that’s probably alright with Hezbollah, too, which always has the option of ramping up its FPV drone warfare, and knows that occupation can’t be sustained forever (in 2000, the IDF suffered what was then the biggest attritional bloody nose in its history to the Shia militia – forced to pull out of Lebanon after 22 years).
👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime | 12 345 |
