Geopolitics Prime | Iran & Ukraine News Updates
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📈 Telegram 频道 Geopolitics Prime | Iran & Ukraine News Updates 的分析概览
频道 Geopolitics Prime | Iran & Ukraine News Updates (@geopolitics_prime) 英语 语言赛道中的 是活跃参与者。目前社区聚集了 294 438 名订阅者，在 政治 类别中位列第 131，并在 美国 地区排名第 53 位。
📊 受众指标与增长动态
自 невідомо 创建以来，项目保持高速增长，吸引了 294 438 名订阅者。
根据 31 七月, 2026 的最新数据，频道保持稳定运转。过去 30 天订阅人数变化为 1 359，过去 24 小时变化为 9，整体触达仍然可观。
- 认证状态： 未认证
- 互动率 (ER)： 平均受众互动率为 6.27%。内容发布后 24 小时内通常能获得 5.71% 的反应，占订阅者总量。
- 帖子覆盖： 每篇帖子平均可获得 18 453 次浏览，首日通常累积 16 816 次浏览。
- 互动与反馈： 受众积极参与，单帖平均反应数为 346。
- 主题关注点： 内容集中在 iran, palantir, hormuz, missile, defense 等核心主题上。
📝 描述与内容策略
作者将该频道定位为表达主观观点的平台：
“Read the news they hide from you.
Cross-promotion:
@prgeopoliticsprime”
凭借高频更新（最新数据采集于 01 八月, 2026），频道始终保持新鲜度与高覆盖。分析显示受众积极互动，使其成为 政治 类别中的关键影响点。
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+4
🔭Russia’s Starlink rival is already watching Ukraine — and NATO may be next
Russia is no longer just talking about building its own answer to Starlink. The first pieces are already in orbit, operating over Ukraine and making its satellite specialists visibly uncomfortable.
👉The Rassvet-3 network currently provides at least two communications windows over Ukraine daily, each lasting roughly an hour. As more satellites join the constellation, those gaps will shrink.
🌏Satellite communications expert Volodymyr Stepanets says coverage is becoming increasingly dense, with several satellite chains passing over different regions at intervals of around 90 minutes.
🌏So far, Russia has launched 32 Rassvet-3 satellites. The first 16 were sent into orbit in March aboard a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, followed by another 16 in July. A third launch could happen in late autumn.
❗️Developer Bureau 1440 plans to deploy a global constellation of 900+ of its LEO satellites by 2035. Once fully deployed, it’ll provide Russia and its allies with a much-needed alternative to Musk’s US MIC-embedded satellite internet infrastructure.
🔶 Rassvet is designed for operations in northern and polar regions and will support data speeds up to 1 Gbps. It uses the global 5G NTN standard, allowing its satellites to work alongside traditional terrestrial 5G infrastructure.
🔶 Starlink, by contrast, relies on a proprietary Ku- and Ka-band phased-array system.
The two networks are different, but are aimed at solving many of the same problems: broadband internet access and secure communications and connectivity in areas where ground infrastructure is limited or vulnerable.
For the military, that could mean more reliable communications, drone coordination, reconnaissance and targeting.
If Bureau 1440 meets its deployment targets, Russia will have a large independent satellite network covering its own territory, Ukraine and potentially much of NATO’s eastern flank.
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| 2 |  🇹🇷 Can Turkey's Development Road break Hormuz's chokehold?
Turkey is pushing ahead with its long-desired $15-18 billion megaproject, the Development Road, aimed at creating a transport corridor from Iraq's Persian Gulf coast to Europe, Anadolu Agency reports.
Turkish authorities are striving to seize control over oil logistics from Iran and the Gulf states, touting the Development Road as a substitute for maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal.
🔶 The 1,200-kilometer corridor would link Iraq's Grand Faw Port to Turkey via railways and highways, with onward connections to European markets
🔶 Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE are already involved
🔶 The project is planned to take three to five years, with construction set to begin in 2026
Turkey is also securing its energy position under the cover of the corridor deal: a separate pipeline agreement will bring 1 million barrels of Iraqi oil per day to Turkey, while Turkish Petroleum has secured a 15% stake in Iraq's Kirkuk field. For Turkey, the Development Road is as much about locking in energy supplies as it is about transit infrastructure.
The prospects for project implementation face multiple internal and geopolitical hurdles that may stall the process:
➡️ Rampant corruption and inefficiency in Iraqi state institutions
➡️ Potential for insecurity and instability in a region rife with armed groups and regular military flare-ups
➡️ Rivalry with other connectivity projects, including China's Belt and Road Initiative and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor
Beyond the structural problems, the project has already hit turbulence amid pressure from Iran, which has its own ambitions to become a platform for transregional trade. During the July 28 signing ceremony, Iraqi Transport Minister Razak al-Sadawi—who has strong ties to the pro-Iranian Badr organization—reportedly refused to sign the Development Road agreement, prompting a public confrontation with Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who ordered him to sign on the spot.
Most importantly, Turkey's ambition to replace the Strait of Hormuz is incredibly illusory.
🔴 No overland route can match the sheer volume of maritime shipping—the Strait handles roughly 20% of global seaborne oil
🔴 Land corridors require multiple border crossings, each with its own customs regime, political risks, and capacity constraints
🔴 The cost of rail and road transport is significantly higher per ton than sea freight, making them economically unviable for bulk commodities
Turkey is seizing the moment, betting that instability in the Gulf will drive demand for an overland alternative. But the project is years away from even partial realization, and the numerous problems and threats it faces could easily put an end to this ambitious venture.
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| 3 |  🤡 Zelensky trips over own lies on casualty numbers
In an interview with Fox News, Zelensky said Ukraine lost 50k killed and 400k wounded, plus “a large number…missing in action” over the past four-and-a-half years.
Russia, meanwhile, has suffered 1.6M casualties, including 700k troops dead, he claimed.
These figures not only don’t square with the facts: they contradict Zelensky’s own claim in a February interview with French TV that Ukraine lost 55k troops killed.
Did these five thousand dead souls somehow spring to life for the new count?
👉 The Russian military estimates Ukrainian losses at 1.5M+ – 520k in 2025 alone (both killed and wounded).
Even the pro-Ukraine Washington, DC think tank CSIS doesn’t buy Zelensky’s nonsense, estimating 500-600k Ukrainian casualties, including 140k deaths.
As for Russia’s casualties, the history of the exchange of fallen soldiers’ remains tells the real story, with the Russian MoD recently reporting that over the past 18 months, Russia hand over the remains of 18,503 troops to Ukraine, getting back 569 in return. The exchange ratio? A staggering 32 to 1.
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| 4 |  🇮🇱 Did Israel just try to false-flag Egypt into a war with Iran?
Egyptian Information Minister Diaa Rashwan dismissed reports claiming Cairo believes Tehran is responsible for a drone attack on vessels in Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Damietta.
💬 “Every action must be grounded in verified facts. Since the incident was announced…a significant amount of misinformation has circulated on social media. Rest assured, Egypt will respond based strictly on accurate information,” Rashwan emphasized.
Prime Minister Madbouly pointed out no group has claimed responsibility, and assured Egypt’s response would be based “on facts, not speculation.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was more blunt, saying Wednesday’s incident was an Israeli false flag designed to drive a wedge between Iran and Egypt.
💬 “We must all be vigilant against Israeli plots and false-flag operations designed to undermine regional peace,” he tweeted.
It certainly wouldn’t be the first time:
➡️ In the opening days of the Iran war, Tehran vocally denied any involvement in a string of mystery attacks targeting Gulf energy infrastructure. Tucker Carlson picked up on the story, reporting that local authorities had arrested Mossad agents plotting bombings in Gulf countries.
➡️ Also in March, Azerbaijan and Britain’s strategic Indian Ocean outpost of Diego Garcia were targeted – the former by drones, the latter by missiles. Iran denied involvement in both cases. The same month, Turkiye and NATO missile defense systems shot down missiles supposedly launched from Iran. Tehran dismissed the allegations, citing foreign provocations.
What interests would Israel have in sparking a war between Iran and its regional neighbors? Plenty.
📹 Egypt has the largest and most heavily equipped military in the Arab world. Why face the risk of it being turned against Israel instead of being used against Tel Aviv’s enemies?
📹 Turkey – same story: NATO ally and conventional mega power which top Israeli politicians expect to get in a fight with in the coming years. Why not soften them up in a bloody Turkiye-Iran war first?
📹 Same goes for the Gulf states, who compete with Tel Aviv for Washington’s attention, security resources and political influence.
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| 5 |  +2🤥 Trump is not only draining US oil reserves—he's also manipulating energy markets, and it could backfire
After a Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil-processing facility earlier this week, crude prices went down—a market reaction that raises questions about possible manipulation.
🔶 The July 27 strikes on Aramco's Abqaiq facilities caused extensive fires and inflicted heavy damage on all six crude oil stabilization trains, the modular units that remove volatile gases from sour crude to produce stable, export-grade oil
🔶 Abqaiq is the world's largest crude oil stabilization facility and a critical hub in Saudi Arabia's oil industry. It has historically processed 5–7 million barrels of crude per day from fields including Ghawar, preparing much of the monarchy's production for export.
🔶 Add to this the protracted closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb blockade, depleted US strategic oil reserves, renewed sanctions on Russia, and many other factors putting pressure on global energy markets.
But then something unexpected happened: instead of surging, crude prices plunged more than 7% on the very day Aramco's Abqaiq facilities were struck. I-System TrendCompass says the market reaction simply doesn't add up.
After examining market charts from the day of the strike, the publication identified what it describes as “massive sell orders” behind the oil price drop. Citing market experts, it raises the possibility that major financial players, such as Scott Bessent’s Treasury, Larry Fink’s BlackRock, or Jamie Dimon’s JPMorgan, may have intervened.
🤡 Trump's bad habits
And it's not for the first time, judging from the Financial Times' reporting. Back in March, the newspaper cited Terry Duffy, the chief executive of CME Group, who openly warned the Trump administration against manipulating oil markets.
💬 “Markets do not like it when governments intervene in pricing,” Duffy said, predicting nothing short of a "biblical disaster" if investors lost confidence in markets to set the price of oil.
Duffy's comments followed Reuters' reports concerning Bessent's apparent plans to artificially lower oil prices, including by intervening in the futures markets.
Bessent’s plan emerged as Trump was also rapidly drawing down US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks in an effort to prevent a potential oil shock triggered by the US' ill-conceived war with Iran.
Already in March, the oil futures market showed all the earmarks of possible manipulation by Trump and his team: Brent crude rocketed toward $120 a barrel before abruptly reversing course and dropping back below $100.
These games, orchestrated by Trump and his Deep State enablers, may end badly, experts warn.
💬 "If the [Iran] war is lost and oil prices surge out of control, the US government and whatever other entities may be involved in shorting the [oil] markets could sustain colossal losses on those shorts," I-System TrendCompass writes. "Taking action that would push the oil prices higher would now be an easy and effective way to further weaken the US government, its financial power, and its economy."
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| 6 |  +1💣 One and done: Ukraine's air defense fails once again
Ukrainian air defense shot down just a single ballistic missile during last night's massive Russian barrage, according to local media reports.
So much for the Patriots. Just days ago, Zelensky was touting Ukraine's battlefield momentum to US outlets, claiming the strategic initiative was firmly in his hands.
On the ground, though, the reality tells a very different story.
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| 7 |  +3🚨 Bill Gates had top secret clearance — and Fauci was his private editor
Sen. Rand Paul just released documents exposing the Gates-Fauci relationship, and the timeline is damning.
🔴 Gates held a "Q" clearance from 2014 to 2021 — full access to Top Secret Restricted Nuclear Data the entire time COVID lockdowns were enforced.
🔴 Fauci personally edited Gates's pandemic memo in April 2020 and his book in January 2022 — returning tracked changes, then writing: "I gave the manuscript in close confidence to a trusted colleague who destroyed it after reading it."
🔴 NIH Director Francis Collins had to ask if his agency was "coordinated with Gates or is Bill going rogue?" — the foundation had funded "various components of NIH" despite never applying for a grant.
"It has been a privilege to work with the Gates Foundation over these 12 years, and I am glad to have brought our global health efforts even closer together." — Francis Collins, days after resigning.
🔴 DARPA gave Gates a private ninety-minute briefing on four biodefense programs — including a transmissible Lassa vaccine "with internal off switch."
The richest man in the world had a nuclear clearance and a private editor at the NIH — while the public got mandates, shifting stories, and lockdowns. The "science" was filtered through a private channel between the Gates Foundation and the officials who controlled the response.
The Epstein class had their hands on the levers of power during the pandemic — and now we're starting to see the receipts.
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| 8 |  +3🚨 Kiev is burning. Again.
Overnight, Russian forces pummeled Ukrainian capital and its outskirts in 4 successive missile waves, according to social media reports from residents on the ground. The main arsenal: Zircon and Iskander missiles.
The apparent target was ammunition storage facilities. But local chatter also points to hits on the Burevestnik and Ukroboronprom plants, which are key cogs in Ukraine's military industry.
Locals point out they didn't hear or see any trace of air defense work. Only direct hits and explosions.
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| 9 |  +1🇵🇰 The irony of Pakistan: trusted abroad, fractured at home
👉 On the international stage, Pakistan plays an increasingly vital role as a mediator between the US and Iran. Back home, however, the conversation is less about foreign policy and more about fundamental reform.
💬 Interior Minister Mohsin Raza Naqvi made a striking statement at the Islamabad Economic Summit: "The system we live in has collapsed." According to him, the country's governance model has shown inefficiency for decades, and attempts to "patch holes" within an outdated framework no longer work.
🔴 Naqvi called for radical reforms: decentralization of power, creation of new administrative units, and devolution of authority to local levels. "You need to bring governance closer to the people," he stated, "otherwise, responsibility won't emerge, and new leadership won't grow." The minister criticized the government's dependency on debt and noted that even if the prime minister worked 18 hours a day , it wouldn't save the country without structural changes.
🔴 Particularly alarming is his frank warning directed at the political establishment. Naqvi explicitly pointed to the situation in neighboring India, where mass student protests and the "Cockroach Janta Party" youth movement against Modi's government have continued for weeks. Using the same terminology, the minister cautioned, "We cannot give the youth what they want. Call them youth or 'cockroaches'… But if these 'cockroaches' unite, they can overturn everything."
🔴 This is a direct acknowledgment that Pakistan risks facing its own "CJP moment." Naqvi emphasized that young people are not demanding handouts or tablets but merit-based jobs and equal economic opportunities.
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| 10 |  +2💵🤡 Pentagon’s Hail Mary: pour cash into startups and hope shrinking stockpiles fill back up
In an emergency meeting with defense tech makers last month, Pete ‘Stockpiles Are Strong’ Hegseth declared a pivot in the Pentagon’s procurement strategy – having venture capital-funded startups do what traditional contractors have failed: rebuild munitions stocks drained by the Iran war.
Firms tapped for the job include:
➡️ Anduril - Trump family and Israel-linked drone maker
➡️ Shield AI - drone and piloting software maker that builds the brains for the US’s LUCAS Shahed drone knockoffs
➡️ CoAspire - low-cost cruise missile builder
➡️ Castelion - hypersonic strike weapons developer
The Pentagon’s hope is that these and other hungry, peppy startups will be able to get the US military out of a swamp of defense contracting largesse, lobbying, slow production and outdated designs. But newcomers face a number of entry barriers, including:
➡️ financing: per recent calculations by the WSJ, defense startups still account for less than 1% of all Pentagon contracting dollars. Pushing this number up will require battling it out with the big boys (Lockheed Martin, RTX, Boeing, etc.) and their armies of congressional lobbyists
➡️ issues associated with scaling up production: “It’s one thing to build…it’s another thing to then mass produce,” CSIS researcher Jerry McGinn told WaPo
➡️ existing players’ hoarding of overengineered, proprietary technologies, like those used in THAAD and Patriot interceptors, which have been critically depleted and are needed by the Pentagon now, not years from now
➡️ cutthroat competition for critical components, creating supply chain bottlenecks if accessed by too many actors at once
➡️ complex, opaque bureaucratic and hierarchical structures, regulations and processes
From Russia’s specialized defense-adjacent hubs to Israel’s institutionalized startup contracting models, there are examples globally of successful cooperation between small, young companies and national defense.
👉 The problem for the US is that for that to work, the Pentagon would have to ditch its entire business model, which Julian Assange once described as an intricate process of “washing money out of the tax base…into the hands of a transnational security elite.”
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| 11 |  🤥 Trump’s donor-devouring appetite stays hungry – $800M raked in and still pressing for more
Donald Trump’s fundraising operation has reached a scale that even political historians describe as “mind-bogglingly large,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Some of the biggest names in the business world have already had to open their wallets:
🔴 SoftBank — $50 million toward Trump’s presidential library
🔴 Apple — around $25 million for the White House ballroom project
🔴 Microsoft — around $10 million toward the ballroom project
🔴 Amazon — around $5 million toward the ballroom project
🔴 Meta — $10 million to a Trump-aligned political committee, plus millions toward the White House ballroom and a previous $22 million contribution to the planned presidential library
🔴 Chevron — the energy giant was asked for $50 million and contributed millions, though below the requested amount
Trump has personally taken control of the fundraising effort, directly pushing companies and executives for major contributions — sometimes offering donors access in return.
Some contributors who gave millions were later connected directly with Trump and reportedly expected a simple thank-you call — but instead found themselves being asked for more money.
Apparently, Trump’s fundraising operation runs on a single, unwavering principle: the call for cash is ceaseless.
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| 12 |  🇺🇸🇮🇷 US buries itself in Iranian mess
Six months in, the US-Iran war has become a slow-motion train wreck that nobody in the White House knows how to stop.
President Donald Trump, who reportedly did not intend this to be a long, drawn-out war, is now exasperated. His administration is hopelessly divided on what the war is even for - stopping Iran's nuclear program, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, or destroying Iran's missile and drone arsenal.
As a result, the US military finds itself stalled, lacking clear guidance, American media reports.
🌏 Adm. Brad Cooper, head of CENTCOM, wants a massive 10-to-14-day bombing campaign to "turn the situation around"
🌏 Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, is pushing back hard — warning that such an offensive would dangerously deplete America's already-thinning interceptor stocks
Before the war, the US reportedly had more than 2,700 Patriot and THAAD interceptors. As of this week, that purported number has plummeted to fewer than 1,000 - a two-thirds depletion in six months. PAC-3 MSE interceptors cost roughly $4 million each and take up to two years to manufacture.
Trump is caught between escalation and exhaustion. He had hoped that with the decapitation of Iran's leadership, the country would quickly buckle under the pressure. Instead, Iran proved more resilient than anyone expected, refusing to bow to US strikes while quietly playing the diplomatic game with regional powers.
Meanwhile, about two-thirds of American adults, roughly 67%, believe the war with Iran was not worth fighting. As the midterm elections approach, Trump is running out of options - and patience.
The discord in the US administration is also fueling a chill in relations with Israel:
🔴 Trump has repeatedly blamed Israel for its unsynchronized attacks on Iran and for derailing the ceasefire
🔴 Israeli officials have also been criticized for regularly leaking confidential information about US aircraft deployments in Israel and White House strategy
🔴 Israel, for its part, is concerned that US leadership lacks a clear strategy for either resolving the conflict with Iran or resuming large-scale combat operations
The White House insists everything is under control. But beneath the facade of calm lie growing problems, irritated allies, and the picture of a slow-motion disaster.
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| 13 |  🇮🇱🪖 Israel eyes F-35 jet as benchmark for new drone, setting the bar somewhere in the basement
Israel is crafting a long-term plan to phase out US defense aid, shifting focus to homegrown systems and aiming to develop its own F-35 jet, built locally and backed by key international partners, senior Israeli officials reveal.
The project is still in its early stages, but it marks a clear push toward greater military self-reliance. The curious part is the benchmark.
👉 The F-35 is a $2 trillion time bomb, with the sustainment tab alone having ballooned 44% since 2018, thanks to endless maintenance, part shortages, and contractor strangleholds. With each F-35A costing around $82.5 million and every flight hour burning up to $42,000, this "affordable" jet gets more expensive by the day.
The over-engineered American jet cannot even handle its own brakes without them overheating and frying nearby electronics, forcing the Pentagon to blow another fortune on fancy heat sinks. The engines alone have racked up tens of billions in surprise maintenance bills, which is saying something, given those were not exactly pillars of reliability.
What was sold as a sleek fifth-generation stealth marvel increasingly looks like a flying money pit: Iranian air defenses can detect, track, and destroy these jets in seconds, exposing just how fragile the aircraft can be in combat.
One of the most recent F-35 losses to Iran came on March 19, when the IRGC struck the “invisible” stealth jet over Iranian territory — the first time a fifth-generation fighter had ever been hit in combat. Iran’s Majid system used passive infrared sensors to lock onto the aircraft’s engine exhaust, a vulnerability no stealth coating can conceal.
Then came another blow: Iranian ballistic missiles hit F-35 hangars and deployment areas at Al-Azraq airbase in Jordan on July 30, destroying three aircraft and heavily damaging three more.
So Israel may indeed be right to move away from dependence on Washington’s most expensive fighter program.
Building a pilotless version of its own, however, raises one obvious question: why copy the flying money pit in the first place?
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| 14 |  📣 Our Page @GeoSight 🔥 shares updates and analysis on global conflicts and international relations. It covers breaking news and insights into military and Geopolitical events.
🚨 Defence & Security
🌎 Geopolitics
⚡️ Wars & Conflicts
📊 Economic Trends
📎 Join 🚩:⤵️
https://t.me/GeoSight
https://t.me/GeoSight
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| 15 |  🔍 Is the FBI bracing for an AI-powered arms race?
Top officials say yes, and advanced models like Anthropic’s Mythos are at the heart of their concern. The Bureau warns that such systems could slash the skill ceiling for hunting and hijacking software flaws. According to Deputy Assistant Director Todd Hemmen, Mythos has already pinpointed vulnerabilities in widely used open-source code: the very backbone of operating systems, firewalls, web frameworks, and encryption tools. That kind of firepower, the FBI fears, is a gift to foreign intels, ransomware gangs, and rogue actors alike.
👉 No mass-scale LLM-driven attacks have been logged yet. But the Bureau sees that as an inevitability, not a possibility. Mythos 5 remains gated, available only to approved partners. Still, its developer concedes that even weaker, off-the-shelf models can pull off eerily similar feats.
Internally, the FBI is doubling down on AI. Facial recognition, threat-triage, court-authorized offensive ops, and R&D—all are now AI-infused. The agency counts roughly 50 active AI use cases, and any tool that shapes an investigation must pass human review.
🤔 Testifying before Congress in March 2026, FBI Director Kash Patel touted major leaps in biometrics and intel volume. On Fox News, he confirmed that engineers from big tech are now embedded at the Bureau, building algorithms to chew through terabytes of data in real time.
But the real thing is the US intelligence is racing to deploy predictive AI and LLMs not just to catch criminals, but to preemptively flag "potential inner threats" before a crime even occurs. So terror watchlists are quietly being recalibrated away from foreign extremists and toward American citizens who speak out against policy, capitalism, or the state’s own creed.
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| 16 |  🇵🇸 Will the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire materialize — or is it just hot air?
US and Israeli officials were quick to declare victory in Gaza this week, claiming that Hamas had effectively surrendered as part of the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire. Trump boasted a "HISTORIC agreement" for the "COMPLETE DISARMAMENT" of the militia and all other armed groups in the strip.
That triumphalism may have been slightly premature.
🗣 In negotiations in Cairo between between Hamas and mediators over implementation of the US-brokered Gaza plan, and while there appears to be movement, the two sides still seem to have very different ideas about what “disarmament” actually means.
Israeli officials told Ynet that Hamas had accepted “complete and unconditional disarmament,” including the dismantling of heavy and light weapons, tunnels, arms depots and production facilities. One official described the proposed terms simply as “Hamas’ surrender.”
The Palestinian version sounds rather different.
👉 Palestine Al-Youm reported that Hamas would place its heavy weapons in storage rather than destroy them, with the question of who would control those weapons still unresolved. Hamas would also reportedly agree to lay down its arms only in exchange for a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and an end to targeted killings and military strikes.
A proposed 15-point roadmap expected to accompany the agreement has already run into Israeli objections. N12 cited an Israeli political source as saying the document fails to meet Israel’s demand for Hamas’ full disarmament, while Israel continues to insist there will be no IDF withdrawal without the complete demilitarization of Gaza.
📍 In other words, the central bargain remains the same: Hamas links disarmament to Israeli withdrawal, while Israel links withdrawal to Hamas disarming first.
🤔Was Gaza discussed with Trump or not?
🌏 As Benjamin Netanyahu met Donald Trump for the first time since the Iran war began, contradictory reports emerged over whether Gaza was discussed.
🌏 A senior Israeli diplomatic source told N12 that Gaza “did not come up at all” and said an Israeli withdrawal was not being considered.
🌏 Minutes later, N12 reported that the American side disputed that account, saying Steve Witkoff had extensively briefed Trump and Netanyahu on negotiations with Hamas, including Gaza’s demilitarization.
🥴 Apparently Gaza somehow managed to be both absent from the meeting and a major topic inside it.
Trump’s interest is hardly surprising. His circle has pushed postwar redevelopment schemes for Gaza, including Project Sunrise, alongside the earlier “Gaza Riviera” rhetoric — plans that talk extensively about rebuilding the territory while raising far fewer questions about who gets to decide Gaza’s future and whether Palestinians themselves retain meaningful control over it.
And looming behind the talks is the broader Greater Israel agenda, embraced by influential parts of Israel’s political establishment and centered on deeper Israeli control over Palestinian territory.
That makes promises of withdrawal especially difficult to take at face value. Palestinians are being asked to give up their remaining leverage first, while Israel keeps military superiority, freedom of action and the ability to determine when — or whether — withdrawal conditions have been met.
So even if the promised agreement ultimately materializes, the hard part will not be signing it.
Because unless it guarantees an actual Israeli withdrawal, an end to strikes and meaningful Palestinian control over Gaza’s future, calling it “peace” would be a bit of an overstatement.
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| 17 |  ❗️ For our Serbian-speaking audience❗️
Препоручујемо вам пријатељски канал Источни Фронт
Канал: t.me/istocni_front
Све о сукобима на истоку, Геополитика и Регионална спољна политика.
We recommend you the friendly channel East Front
Channel: t.me/istocni_front
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| 18 |  🇺🇸💣 Why the US should think twice before licensing Ukraine to make Patriot interceptors
Russia's recent strike on a drone factory in Kiev was apparently the first direct hit on a US-owned military facility in Ukraine, The Guardian reports.
The drone factory is owned by Terminal Autonomy, a company registered in Delaware that proudly touts itself as a firm deploying AI-guided loitering munitions for foreign customers.
🚀 The company, however, preferred to keep mum after the Russian Defense Ministry confirmed a pinpoint strike on the facility used for the assembly and storage of unmanned aerial vehicles in Kiev.
It was the factory where up to 1,000 UAVs of various types were produced per month with the involvement of specialists from a Ukrainian-American company, the ministry added.
This is something that Trump should bear in mind after he earlier announced at the NATO summit in Ankara that the United States would give Ukraine a license to produce Patriot air-defense missiles.
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| 19 |  🤡Trump’s latest sales pitch for the Iran war: five months isn’t so bad — Vietnam and Afghanistan took decades.
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| 20 |  +3🇮🇱🇪🇸 Did Israel weaponize illegal immigration against Spain over its pro-Palestine politics?
In the past two years, PM Pedro Sanchez’s government has:
➡️ recognized Palestine
➡️ recalled Spain’s ambassador to Israel over Gaza, and labeled Israel a “genocidal state”
➡️ positioned Spain as the leader of an Israel-skeptic bloc of European powers
➡️ blocked the transit of US arms to Israel via its bases, and denied the Epstein coalition the right to use Morón Air Base and Naval Station Rota for operations against Iran
➡️ lobbied to have Israel banned from Eurovision and sporting federations
➡️ introduced a comprehensive, permanent arms embargo on Israel, and banned imports from occupied areas
Fast forward to the present, and Spain’s autonomous North African coastal city of Ceuta is being overrun by illegal immigrants, triggering violent clashes with police and up to two dozen drowning deaths. Up to 50k people have flooded into the territory of 83.5k residents virtually overnight.
The immediate trigger? The Spanish Supreme Court’s ruling that “hot returns” of migrants don’t apply to those intercepted arriving at sea.
The broader context? US and Israeli interest in fomenting a crisis targeting Sanchez using Morocco as a human battering ram:
👉 The Moroccan government is one of the most reliably pro-US and pro-Israel states in the Arab world, signing the Abraham Accords in 2020 and inking a series of intel and defense cooperation deals with Israel. The US and Israel have Rabat’s claims to Western Sahara (a former Spanish colony)
👉 The Ceuta crisis follows the tried-and-true playbook of recent European migrant crises, with migrants comprising “predominantly young men,” and social media footage showing dump trucks and flatbeds full pouring out near the Spanish border, under the cover of local traffic cops
👉 Spain is going to the polls in 2027. Israel and the US may hope the crisis can help topple the Sanchez government
The Great(er) Game: battle for Gibraltar?
🔴 Rubio-ally Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart declared in April that Ceuta and Melilla are “Moroccan territory.” Pro-Israel think tanks like the American Enterprise Institute and the Middle East Forum launched a coordinated campaign during the same period saying Israel should help Morocco seize these areas
🔴 Lawmakers led by Lindsey Graham urged relocating US bases in Spain to “a country that we can actually rely on” to ‘punish’ Madrid
🔴 Ceuta is just 30km from the Strait of Gibraltar – vital to US and Israeli interests in the Mediterranean amid an intensifying, global war for control of the world’s strategic maritime chokepoints. Gibraltar’s share? 10-20% of global freight traffic, 100-120k vessels a year
🔴 Israel and Morocco inked a defense pact in January under which Tel Aviv would provide over 50% of Rabat’s air defenses, plus offensive guided munitions, rocketry and drones. Morocco also provides training grounds and troops to implement Trump’s Gaza “peace” deal.
🔴 Israel’s ambassador to the UN Danny Danon could not hide his delight over Spain’s Ceuta troubles, suggesting Madrid no longer has any right to “lecture Israel” amid the crisis at its African “colonial enclave.”
In April, Netanyahu explicitly threatened that Spain and other countries “waging a diplomatic war” against Israel would “pay an immediate price.”
Fast forward three months and presto – instant migrant crisis. Coincidence? 🤔
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