Crypto Narratives

Flipping your bias from bearish to bullish after you missed the opportunity of closing your shorts in profit is one of the hardest things to do Psychological biases are the biggest enemies of the trader

LTF blow-off tops like that are often the signal for ALTBTC charts to shine, with BTC needing some time to consolidate after a giga-run But it's even more bullish if BTC immediately goes up again

Reminder that BTC is a momentum asset, meaning it finds new buyers by going up

Lockout rally Textbook no-pullback price action

Lockout trend on BTC, chart looks like we'll have continuation before getting a pullback

$BTW is a $7bn FDV scam coin When one of these appears, my question always is "can it reach the $20bn FDV club?" Given the fact that the funding has been highly positive on that one, I'd say no. Positive funding also implies that it's significantly less riskier to short, but there's always a risk of the funding rate flipping negative.

Congrats to Venice equity holders! $VVV would be a no-brainer bid if there wasn't a token<>equity dual structure But unfortunately there is one, and VVV is "only" buying back & burning $7M a year worth of tokens, against a $700M mcap and $40M annual emissions https://x.com/ErikVoorhees/status/2089375845425287610

Unfortunately, Saylor is doubling down on his very bad idea to keep capping $STRC at $100.00 In his example, someone is shorting $10bn of STRC at $100 AND Strategy is able to keep issuing a ton of STRC at $100 at the same time, but that's not what's going to happen Some people will be shorting a lot of STRC between $99 and $100, which will prevent the price from reaching $100 and incentivize holders to sell right below $100 too. STRC not reaching $100 means Strategy has to keep deploying efforts and money to get it back to par, which in the current situation means selling BTC or MSTR at a 'low price' to buy STRC close to $100, ie the exact opposite of the trade he wants to do once STRC is at par. The only thing that will push STRC decisively to $100 will be BTC pumping high enough, which also implies that when Saylor will be able to raise USD, BTC will be at a "high price" on a relative basis. His reasoning is that he wants holders to be certain that STRC won't go above $100, which should reduce uncertainty and paralysis with regards to buying/selling STRC. I think that's completely wrong because he's imagining that the ideal scenario will be STRC trading between $99 and $100, so he caps STRC at $100 to get closer to this idealistic scenario, but he doesn't realize that it's unrealistic and will never happen. I's mathematically IMPOSSIBLE to reduce the volatility of STRC down to 1%, the volatility swings will always be around 10%, but now instead of having this volatility between $95 and $105, he's forcing it to be between $90 and $100. So the holders will have the uncertainty/paralysis anyway, but they'll have it at a lower price and with a much worse r/r profile than if he didn't cap STRC at par. I'm going to write a full article on this topic because it's important and I'm surprised he's doubling down on this. https://x.com/TNorth/status/2089509833699369363

$SNDK is up +50% with basically zero drawdown One could theoretically still argue that this is a dead cat bounce, but my opinion is instead that memory top callers are definitely going to be proven wrong The easier trade that you could take with higher size is now done though, more than half the July sell-off has been retraced, levering up here is not the way to go

In trading, trying to make money too fast is the main reason you won't make money at all

Some unlocks starting soon apparently on $MON More generally, as long as the market is dead, I don't really see why this wouldn't bleed down to $1bn FDV (MEGA is already trading at $300M FDV...)

Pretty insane compression on $ZEC, I struggle to have a firm opinion on how this resolves

$BERA is down a light -98.5% It can always get worse, dawg

Leopold liquidation marked the bottom, and from there they even gave you nice higher lows to bid $SNDK Just don't oversize so that you don't sell bottoms and fomo into tops... literally your only job

2/3 of the July pump now retraced on $UNI These are some of the few interesting trades that work in the current market in crypto: wait for one of the large caps to have a catalyst+pump, ideally it over-extends (+65% is a huge move), short after the catalyst, profit

$MU, the 'blue-chip' memory stock, is only +28% away from making new highs

Crypto will have its time again but there's zero reason not to trade stocks right now In the current state of each respective market, trading equities is like 5x more profitable/easy/interesting than crypto

$DELL is now in price discovery Some other AI stocks that look likely to make new highs sooner than the others, purely based on charts are: $LITE $CRDO and $NVDA (as a muuuch safer play and less volatile obviously)

Anthropic has the fastest growing ARR at this scale in history That's at least one argument in favor of the fact that "this time is different" and that the AI buildout is not the exact same thing as every previous financial market bubble

EtherFi Call today It didn't really run into it, so news-selling isn't guaranteed