Crypto Narratives
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Link to my "Crypto Narratives" newsletter : https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/ Link to my Twitter profile : https://twitter.com/thedefivillain Link to the TG degen channel : https://t.me/shitcoinsandgems
نمایش بیشتر📈 تحلیل کانال تلگرام Crypto Narratives
کانال Crypto Narratives (@cryptonarratives1) در بخش زبانی انگلیسی بازیگری فعال است. در حال حاضر جامعه شامل 21 694 مشترک است و جایگاه 5 404 را در دسته رمزارزها و رتبه 1 840 را در منطقه الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية دارد.
📊 شاخصهای مخاطب و پویایی
از زمان ایجاد در невідомо، پروژه رشد سریعی داشته و 21 694 مشترک جذب کرده است.
بر اساس آخرین دادهها در تاریخ 08 ژوئیه, 2026، کانال فعالیت پایداری دارد. در ۳۰ روز گذشته تغییر اعضا برابر 61 و در ۲۴ ساعت گذشته برابر 4 بوده و همچنان دسترسی گستردهای حفظ شده است.
- وضعیت تأیید: تأیید نشده
- نرخ تعامل (ER): میانگین تعامل مخاطب 21.72% است و در ۲۴ ساعت نخست پس از انتشار، محتوا معمولاً 14.89% واکنش نسبت به کل مشترکان کسب میکند.
- دسترسی پستها: هر پست به طور میانگین 4 712 بازدید دریافت میکند. در اولین روز معمولاً 3 231 بازدید جمعآوری میشود.
- واکنشها و تعامل: مخاطبان بهطور فعال حمایت میکنند؛ میانگین واکنش به هر پست 34 است.
- علایق موضوعی: محتوا بر موضوعات کلیدی مانند mstr, hype, chart, axs, eth تمرکز دارد.
📝 توضیح و سیاست محتوایی
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“Link to my "Crypto Narratives" newsletter : https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/
Link to my Twitter profile : https://twitter.com/thedefivillain
Link to the TG degen channel : https://t.me/shitcoinsandgems”
به لطف بهروزرسانیهای پرتکرار (آخرین داده در تاریخ 09 ژوئیه, 2026)، کانال همواره بهروز و دارای دسترسی بالاست. تحلیلها نشان میدهد مخاطبان بهطور فعال با محتوا تعامل دارند و آن را به نقطه اثرگذاری مهم در دسته رمزارزها تبدیل کردهاند.
21 694
مشترکین
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آرشیو پست ها
21 693
There is no incentive for Saylor to buyback STRC at this level
The SEC filing is all about signaling
I strongly doubt he's going to repurchase STRC above $70, I don't even think he would do it above $50.
If he's selling BTC to buy STRC, then the chart that should matter is STRC/BTC. I don't expect this chart to collapse so I don't think it would be interesting for him to buyback STRC
STRC is now basically a STRF-like pref that is floating, bringing it back to $100 is not that important anymore (*as the issuer that is focusing on limiting damage and not issuing more in the short-term*) because no one believes it must trade at $100 anymore
He will probably keep the dividend rate at 12%, which is a clean 1% for month, easy to remember. Everybody kind of agrees that it would be useless to try to increase it enough for the asset to trade back at par anyway, so there's no incentive to increase it either.
21 693
Some people are holding millions of $ worth of locked
$LAB tokens and the 1st unlocks are approaching so they try to hedge their positions by shorting but they are getting completely smoked with a -10000% annualized funding rate
They won't let you get away with that money, dawg
21 693
The only trade I took so far on $SYN is shorting the squeeze to $0.65, it was a scalp that I close in a few hours
My criteria for shorting was a hourly candle with $150M+ volume, and this is the only candle that came close to it, it was a very obvious short on LTF
But what's more important is that by respecting this "volume saturation" rule before shorting, you are preventing yourself from taking shorts with much less certainty of being a win.
Right now I'm once again waiting for another high-volume squeeze that will almost certainly be a winning short.
Could I have just longed a dip? Yeah sure, but I don't have the conviction required to do that, so I'm not trying to force trades that I don't like. Taking less trades with more conviction is basically always a good idea.
21 693
One of the key messages from this SEC filing is 'I won't be as free to make some stupid decisions like using the USD reserve to buyback converts anymore'
21 693
Most bullish reaction from the SEC filing is on STRC which makes sense because it was the most irrationally sold off
21 693
Summary:
- USD Reserve policy: they are now committing to having at least 1y worth of dividends in it. They are also promising that it won't be used for anything other than div payments.
- STRC dividend: basically there is no clear guidance anymore, they are not guaranteeing a dividend increase even if it trades below par.
- STRC + other prefs buyback program: they are announcing that they might do it, but haven't done anything yet => Signal that they could buy these back if their price goes low enough
- MSTR buyback program: they are announcing that they might do it, but haven't don't anything yet. => Signal that MSTR mNAV *could* be defended below some threshold
- They remind everyone that they could be selling BTC for all sort of purposes, but still only sold MSTR and not BTC last week even at depressed mNAV
- They sold $1.1bn worth of MSTR shares to replenish the USD reserve, which now covers almost 1.5 year worth of dividends
https://x.com/saylor/status/2071565162377568377
21 693
Is there any reason for $MON not to go sub $1bn FDV in the coming months?
Now that it failed repeatedly at being in an uptrend, there's no reason to hold it anymore and it's a $2bn FDV alt L1 with 0 volume
(The anti-bearish case is ‘it’s a $2bn FDV coin with 0 volume, so it’s cornered enough not to die?’)
21 693
+1
The gold and silver blowoff tops marking a multi-month (year?) top looks incredibly likely just based on their chart but calling it at the time when everyone was bulled up didn't feel comfortable at all
21 693
Buying a scam coin after a huge retrace, *if* price action stabilizes, can be a good r/r trade
$VELVET
21 693
That was 4 opportunities to break below $60k in three days for bears
Even if it eventually breaks, we should get some short-term relief?
21 693
Several days at $1bn+ volume on the Binance perp contract means we're very close to a local top on a large cap
TAO TON XLM NEAR WLD are the 5 most recent examples of that volume saturation
HYPE and ZEC are in a different league because their baseline volume is already very high, so the criteria doesn't work on them
21 693
The list hasn't really changed today, and a few of these coins are up >10% from yesterday prices
21 693
+1
I outlined the worst-case scenario for STRC in my article: back then the USD reserve was still worth 2 years+ which was definitely much better than the current 10 months, but the overall picture doesn't change.
In a distressed scenario, I imagined a 40% discount (ie $STRC at $60) with a 15% dividend rate, making the effective yield 25%.
This is obviously a ballpark estimate that entirely depends on BTC price, but that's precisely my point: STRC price is a function of BTC, and if you expect BTC to go really low, it will obviously impact STRC+MSTR. But up until the past few weeks, most people didn't have BTC bottom price expectations that were low enough to justify being as bearish as they were on the MSTR complex.
You can't have your own rational estimate of STRC price if you don't take your expected BTC price trajectory as an input.
If you think BTC is trending to zero long-term, then yeah the fair price of STRC is probably extremely low ($10-$20?)
If you think BTC is entering a dramatic bear market that will tremendously hurt MSTR, then the fair price of STRC might be something like $30-$50?
If you think BTC will chop for like 2 years, just enough to negatively impact the bitcoin per share of Strategy and make it a significantly less important actor in the next bull market, then the fair price of STRC might be like $50 - $70?
If you think BTC is close to a bottom, then the fair price of STRC is probably quite close to $100.
21 693
+2
At the same time, XLM WLD NEAR INJ are looking cooked among the coins that pumped recently
They are obviously not the only ones, as you can see on the screenshots below, most coins are very ugly (HBAR, ADA, PUMP, etc)
21 693
Altcoins looking decent/strong:
JTO LIT USELESS GRASS XPL ETHFI KAITO AAVE DYDX
21 693
Erratic moves but all dips are getting bought on $JTO in anticipation of the JTX launch
21 693
The reason STRC is arguably a flawed instrument is also the reason it was able to attract $7bn in 3 months
By having a pref that is supposed to trade at $100 and with a "variable" but extremely slow adjusting yield (set by Saylor and not directly by the market forces), Strategy has been able to gather a ton of volume and demand to an instrument that didn't have a clear equilibrium level at $100, but was 'forced' there
The other prefs are much better designed assets because the market sets their yield instantly by repricing them. Saylor was able to get $7bn of 'inorganic' inflows in STRC that he wouldn't have gotten in STRF for example, because the price of STRF would have automatically gotten pushed down way more than STRC and its artificial peg at $100
Now the market has to absorb all of this 'excessive leverage' that has been taken by Strategy, one way or another. It's interesting to notice how incredibly ruthless the market is, Saylor took two stupid decisions in a row (buying $2bn of BTC at the highs with the STRC money and then retiring the converts with the USD reserve), and the reaction has been immediate: $MSTR has dumped -55% in what's been just a bit more than a month.
