Crypto Narratives
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- حالة التحقق: غير موثّقة
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Link to my Twitter profile : https://twitter.com/thedefivillain
Link to the TG degen channel : https://t.me/shitcoinsandgems”
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21 664
المشتركون
-624 ساعات
-427 أيام
-4030 أيام
أرشيف المشاركات
21 663
Not even a bounce at the IPO price
They farmed retail pretty well on that one
"Let me long before the unlocks because it's a 4% float stock"
I wonder how low $SPCX goes, sub $100 is probably guaranteed at some point
(But I am definitely not short at the current price, the risk of a bounce is too high)
21 663
BTC is looking quite okay with its higher lows, but a ton of alts are giga weak
21 663
That happened faster than expected
Most likely path is to remain weak for a while imo, probably bounce and print lower highs, I think there's time to let it properly consolidate
$HYPE
21 663
"CXMT pump" rejected seems to confirm the relative weakness in HYPE, I'm thinking we should see sub $60
21 663
The rotation keeps going big time
Memory/momentum (SMH) -> Mag7/hyperscalers
The pivot was after the Micron earnings
21 663
Watchlist:
$ZEC - strongest large cap
$LIT - strongest coin for a while, now consolidating at the highs
$JTO - JTX live, potential sell the news
$ETHFI - announcement catalyst (late July)
$HYPE - CXMT listing catalyst
$AERO - Aero launch catalyst
$KAITO - are they criming it up?
$VVV - relentless bleeding from the equity raise news
$UNI $ARB - Robinhood chain activity post launch
$PUMP - no unlock dump so far
$CASHCAT $ANSEM - recent onchain runners (topped?)
$LDO - new AI product catalyst
21 663
+2
Don't get shaken out in nights like that if the thesis is intact
But you need a thesis + conviction for that. And manage your risk if you don't want the market to manage it for you
Personally when I see these dips I have the conviction that they are great entries on a multi-week timeframe and that we're likely to bounce higher in the near future, but there's always the risk of seeing further drawdowns
I want to position myself so that I can withstand the drawdowns and even add if it gets even more extreme
The lines on the chart are roughly my yesterday's entries, being able to add some long exposure on the Korean session dip and then benefit from the bounce is what you want vs getting stopped at the bottom.
An alternative way of doing things is just to play everything super tight and to invalidate longs very quickly instead of taking the drawdowns.
Several different strategies can work, you just have to know in advance what you're playing.
21 663
+3
$HYPE: Triple top with declining volume + PURR climax seems over + ETFs launch euphoria waning
The chart remains very strong against the altcoin market on average, but it doesn't look like it will suddenly have the juice to run it back above $80
Neutral-bearish bias for me here
21 663
The logical bounce level is $135 which was the IPO price of $SPCX
So many people tried to slip a long in the pre-unlocks window and got carried out, a 2 trillion memestock is heavy
21 663
Bullish for $STRC (larger USD reserve, which can only be used to pay dividends)
Bearish for $MSTR/BTC ratio (he should sell BTC instead of MSTR when mNAV is below 1.2x, but he hammered the common again at like 1.06x this week. Probably not much downside on MSTR/BTC though, because there's a psychological support at 1x mNAV)
https://x.com/saylor/status/2076638696053276748
21 663
Slowly getting there for $VVV
R/R is getting worse for shorts here with the risk of a bounce that would erase profits
But I also wouldn't be shocked if this just bleeds for months now
21 663
Time to buy the dips on memory stocks again
The way it works for me is: I have core longs that I'm not touching, and then I short-term trade on a subaccount to just play all the dips+bounces on these stocks
Very important to TP the bounces on the subaccount
I usually go for 50% MU 50% SNDK but today I also longed SKHYNIX which looks like a phenomenal opportunity for a bounce
21 663
Reduce size
Plan your entries instead of fomoing
Take profit quickly instead of being greedy
Ignore setups when you can't get in in a position of strength
Don't try to force quick profits
Following these risk mgmt rules will minimize your drawdowns and make your life easier
21 663
BTC quietly creeping up since the repeated failed breakdown attempts marked a local bottom below $60k
21 663
They are finding new $SPCX shares to sell even before the unlocks
Cooked asset, should break down below $150
21 663
I'm long $LDO for the AI product catalyst, everyone has been shaken out of this coin anyway, downside very limited and mcap is not even $300M
https://x.com/ncerovac/status/2074122245266379174
