Price Action Trading ⚡️
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Gold Maximalist Dedicated to the timeless case for gold as the ultimate store of value. Daily insights on monetary history, central bank policy, inflation trends, price action strategies and guide
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Gold Price Prediction for Next Week | Fed Week Test
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The odds of a September interest rate hike surge to 79% after US CPI inflation hits 3.4% in August.
August CPI inflation comes in at 3.4%, in-line with expectations of 3.4%
Core CPI inflation falls to 2.4%, also in-line with expectations of 2.4%.
Month-over-month CPI inflation rose +0.4%, the biggest increase since May 2026.
Treasury yields are rising on the news.
Favorable CPI data is exactly what both the Fed and Trump want, making everyone happy. The Federal Reserve gets the perfect excuse to avoid another interest rate hike, while Trump gets to claim once again—that he is the one bossing the economy.
The US 10Y Note Yield officially rises above 4.90% for the first time since November 2023, now up +95 basis points since the Iran War began.
This puts the 10Y Note Yield up another +10 basis points since the US Treasury said it was TRIPLING long-term buybacks to $6 billion.
The market now sees a new high 71% chance of the Fed hiking interest rates by October.
There is also now a 62% chance of a rate hike at next week's meeting.
Markets think Fed Chair Warsh's first rate move is a HIKE.
August PPI Inflation rises to 5.4%, above expectations of 5.3%.
Core PPI Inflation rose to 4.6%, the highest since June 2026.
July's headline and core PPI inflation numbers were also revised higher.
The odds of rate hikes are rising further on the news.
The European Central Bank officially hikes rates by 25 basis points, marking its second rate hike this year as rising oil prices drive up inflation.
Markets also now see a 90% chance of a third interest rate hike by the ECB this year.
