اکنون در دسترس! پژوهش تلگرام ۲۰۲۵ — مهمترین بینشهای سال 
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| 08 ژوئیه | +2 | |||
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| 06 ژوئیه | +4 | |||
| 05 ژوئیه | +6 | |||
| 04 ژوئیه | +4 | |||
| 03 ژوئیه | +4 | |||
| 02 ژوئیه | +2 | |||
| 01 ژوئیه | +2 |
پستهای کانال
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| 2 | Oil surges 5.5% after Trump says Iran ceasefire is over | 533 |
| 3 | Trump: Iran ceasefire is over, as far as I'm concerned | 557 |
| 4 | Oil jumps 3% as US, Iran resume strikes | 617 |
| 5 | Screenshot 2026-07-08 at 10.27.22 AM.png | 647 |
| 6 | +4 Gold is stuck in a fight. The big-picture backdrop is bearish, but price has found a floor and is refusing to break down. So it is chopping in a range while the two sides slug it out, not the moment to bet big either way.
What the macro is saying, and it is not friendly. The intermarket picture is about as one-sided as it gets: Tailwind Score 8.1, with 76% of the drivers bearish and zero bullish. Real yields are rising, the dollar is rising, and gold is even falling in euro terms, so this is not a dollar illusion, it is genuine gold weakness. Rising real yields are the real villain here: when safe bonds pay more, a metal that pays nothing looks less attractive. Bottom line, the wind is blowing against gold right now.
What the structure is saying, more of a stalemate. On the 4-hour, structure actually reads bullish. Price has been carving higher highs and higher lows off the recent low, and it is sitting right between support around 4140 and resistance near 4172. But zoom out and the multi-timeframe view tells the honest story: 15m and 4H bullish, but 1H, Daily and Weekly all bearish. That is a bear lean overall, a small bounce inside a bigger downtrend.
What the smart-money read is saying, and the agreement matters. Wyckoff shows the exact same nested picture seen all week: the Daily is in distribution (that big top from 5600 with repeated failed rallies, the upthrusts), while the 4-hour down at 4000 to 4380 is quietly accumulating, with a spring off the late-June low. Translation: the big trend rolled over, but the most recent leg down has found buyers building a base.
The levels that matter today. The supply and demand map frames it cleanly. Overhead, there is a supply zone at roughly 4237 to 4364, which is where sellers are likely waiting, and it lines up with the daily distribution ceiling. Below, weekly demand sits at about 3884 to 4069, the floor the base is forming on. Price at about 4127 is caught in the middle, closer to support than resistance, which is why the bounce keeps trying.
So what do you actually do with this? Respect the range. The honest play is this: it is a place to fade extremes, not chase breakouts. If price pushes up into that 4237 to 4364 supply with the macro this bearish, that is a spot to be cautious on longs and where shorts have their best backing. The daily trend, the macro headwind, and the supply zone all agree there. If price drops back toward 3884 to 4069 demand and shows a spring or a reversal, that is where the accumulation crowd steps in for a bounce, but keep it tactical, take profit into strength, and do not marry it, because the bigger trend is still down.
The bottom line for today: no clean signal, and that is the signal. Several independent read outs are telling one coherent story: macro says down, daily structure says down, but the immediate floor is holding and accumulating. That combination means range, not trend. The real trade sets up only when the pieces align: either price rejects the supply zone for a short with the trend, or the daily itself flips bullish alongside the 4H base and the bounce becomes real. Until one of those happens, smaller size and patience beats forcing a position. Let the range resolve and trade the edge the macro is backing, which for now is the downside. | 669 |
| 7 | tg_image_3863914919.png | 797 |
| 8 | Same view, price moving towards the demand zone , slowly… low volume | 804 |
| 9 | tg_image_2917038448.png | 870 |
| 10 | Gold Stalled Exactly Where It Should Have: It Is Struggling at the Supply, and the Retest Is the Trade to Watch
The rally did its job and then hit its ceiling, right on schedule. Gold ran off the NFP break, pushed into the 4,178 to 4,195 supply, tagged it, and is now struggling there, trading around 4,164 and failing to push cleanly through into the new week. This is not a surprise, it is the exact stall the last read called for. A vertical move into fresh resistance was always going to run out of steam here. Price is not yet in a confirmed pullback, it is being rejected at the zone and grinding, which is the phase right before the market decides whether it pulls back to build a base or fails outright. Either way, the next decision is a cleaner one than chasing the breakout ever was.
THE RALLY, THE STALL, AND WHY IT MATTERS
The move off the lows was fundamentally driven, and that still matters. A soft June jobs print knocked the dollar and yields lower, cut the odds of another Fed hike, and gave gold the fuel to break the 4,060 to 4,097 wall that had capped it for a week. Price then ran straight to the next supply at 4,178 to 4,195 and stalled, printing the sell reaction right at the zone. That is textbook. Resistance is resistance, and a market does not punch through the next ceiling on the first touch after a two percent sprint.
So the struggle now underway is healthy, not bearish. Price stalling and getting rejected at the next resistance after a fast move is the market running out of immediate buyers up here, and it is doing it at exactly the level a disciplined trader wanted to see it pause. Whether that stall turns into an orderly pullback that finds support, or a sharper rejection, is the question the next sessions answer.
THE LEVEL THAT DECIDES THE NEXT LEG
If the struggle here resolves into a pullback, everything hinges on one zone: the broken 4,060 to 4,097 supply. That band was resistance on the way up. If price rotates back into it and holds, turning old resistance into fresh support, that is the retest that confirms the breakout was real, and it is the second, higher quality entry this structure has been building toward. Buy the hold of broken supply, not the chase into the supply above it.
If instead price slices back through 4,060 to 4,097 and closes below it, the breakout is in question and the market likely rotates back down toward 4,000 and the weekly demand at 4,059 to 3,884. That is the line that separates a healthy pullback from a failed breakout, and it is the level to watch on a closing basis, not an intraday wick.
THE PLAN
The bias has improved and the recovery is real, but nothing here is a chase. The smart trade is patience: let the pullback come into the 4,060 to 4,097 zone, watch how price reacts, and take the long only if that broken supply holds as support. No hold, no trade. And keep the bigger picture honest, this remains a strong bounce until the 4,236 to 4,363 daily supply is reclaimed, so manage the long side as a tactical move, not a confirmed new trend, until price proves otherwise. | 920 |
| 11 | XAUUSD_2026-07-05_20-52-27.png | 880 |
| 12 | Let's read what the cycle engine is showing for gold this week. I'll keep this simple.
Gold moves in a rhythm of roughly 15 trading days right now, low to low. That's what the engine has measured,. And we are only 20 percent into the current cycle, which means gold just made a low a few days ago near 3,940 and is now in the early rising part of its cycle.
Now look at these boxes on the chart, because this is next week drawn in advance.
First, this small red box sitting right at current price. That is the projected cycle high zone, price and time together. The engine expects this bounce to top out somewhere around 4070 to 4197, and the timing points to early next week, roughly 5 trading days out. So if you're chasing this bounce up here, understand you are buying INTO the zone where the cycle usually tops, not away from it.
Second, this gold box below, around 3877 to 4005. That is the next cycle LOW zone, and its window opens around July 14. That is where the next real buying decision lives, not up here.
Now the two most important words on the whole dashboard. The bigger cycle, the one that takes about 2 months low to low, is still pointing DOWN. That's the tide. But, and this is the change from last week, the last small cycle was RIGHT translated. In plain words: the bounce topped LATE in its cycle instead of early. That's the first structural footprint of buyers gaining strength since the top in March. One footprint is not a trend change, but it's how every trend change starts.
So here is the simple playbook. Strength into that red zone early next week: that's where taking profits on bounce longs, not adding. Then the July 14 low window becomes the tell. If gold makes a HIGHER low there, above the 3940 bottom, and turns up with confirmation, the bigger cycle is very likely turning, and that lines up almost exactly with the 4,360 reclaim level from my structure analysis. Two completely different methods, same results.
And if that mid-July low breaks below 3940 instead, these blue boxes out here tell the other story: the engine projects the next major low zone in the 3,700 to 4050 area, sometime August to October. That's the bear path, mapped with dates.
Bull trigger: higher low in the July 14 window, then 4,360 reclaimed. Bear trigger: 3940 breaks. Everything else between those two numbers is noise. That's the week | 886 |
| 13 |  World central banks purchased +41 tonnes of gold in May, the largest monthly addition since November 2025.
This follows +17 tonnes acquired in April, and marks the 3rd monthly purchase this year.
Poland led for the 2nd consecutive month at +18 tonnes, bringing its year-to-date total to +64 tonnes, with gold reserves now at a record 614 tonnes.
China added +10 tonnes, the biggest monthly addition since December 2024, increasing its official gold reserves to a record 2,331 tonnes, also accounting for 9% of total FX reserves, near an all-time high.
This also marks the 20th consecutive monthly purchase by the Chinese central bank.
At the same time, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan acquired +9 tonnes and +7 tonnes, respectively.
Central bank demand for gold is back. | 872 |
| 14 | 261 trades. 260 winners. 23 years of gold data, tested on TradingView's own engine, not ours.
We call it Sentinel. Full data drops on this channel soon. | 1 037 |
| 15 | Silver climbs 3% as rate hike expectations fade | 1 042 |
| 16 | A pullback from supply | 1 057 |
| 17 |  Messages when the price was at low of this cycle , booked profit as of now.
Will wait for another swing in August. | 1 095 |
| 18 | yesterday's update on tradingview profile
https://in.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/qzSF1ADb-Gold-Just-Tested-The-Same-Wall-again-And-Failed-again/ | 1 019 |
| 19 | Silver SND and Structure | 1 034 |
| 20 | +1 https://x.com/bullishbybirth/status/2072885107728486876 | 1 103 |
