Price Action Trading ⚡️
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Gold Maximalist Dedicated to the timeless case for gold as the ultimate store of value. Daily insights on monetary history, central bank policy, inflation trends, price action strategies and guide
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SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR WARSH'S STATEMENT:
1. The US economy is showing "impressive resilience"
2. Inflation "remains elevated" relative to the Fed's 2% target
3. The policy statement displays "just the facts" and "steers clear" of guidance
4. There is no soft inflation target, the only target is 2%
5. Fed notes nominal and real yields are materially higher since last Fed meeting
6. Market participants are "learning to play the ball, not the referee"
Once again, the Fed has declined to provide guidance.
1. Fed leaves rates unchanged for the 5th straight meeting
2. Fed votes 9-3 to hold benchmark rate in 3.50%-3.75% zone
3. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissent in favor of rate hike
4. Fed says economic activity is expanding at a "solid pace" despite uncertainty
5. Fed says job gains have "kept pace with the workforce"
6. Fed says it remains committed to its 2% inflation goal
The longest Fed pause since the 2008 cycle continues.
In one of the most divided decisions in years, the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged.
This marks the 5th consecutive meeting with no change in rates, extending the Fed’s longest pause since the 2008 cycle.
Last time gold corrected like this was 2022. It consolidated from March to December for 9 months then went up 3x for next 2 years. So be patient we could consolidate to a month or 2 more.
Trump says he is ready for "strong military action" if Iran talks fail, per Axios.
Details include:
1. "We are in very deep talks with Iran. If they don't work out, we will go back to very strong military action," Trump said
2. When asked how long he's willing to give diplomacy, Trump said "not much time"
3. Trump said he decided to pause strikes on Friday because the countries that are mediating asked him to give negotiations another chance
detailed analysis
https://x.com/bullishbybirth/status/2081597036072140973
Where we are: Gold is at 4,027, down 0.56%. The rally topped out around 4,180 and has given back most of the week's gains. Price is back inside the weekly demand zone at 4,059 to 3,884
Intermarket
This is the sharpest reversal on the board. The driver split flipped from 36% bearish yesterday to 82% bearish today. That is a big one-day swing.
Look at what turned. The dollar jumped from 100.95 to 101.45 and is rising again. Real yields up to 2.39%. Gold/silver up. Gold in euro down. Gold versus stocks down. VIX is up to 18.7.
Two days ago six drivers were neutral. Today only two are. The macro pressure that had gone flat is back on. That is the reason the rally stalled where it did.
Daily
Structure stays bearish, Lower High and Lower Low. Resistance is now 3.8% away at 4,180, support 1.3% below at 3,976.
The trendline chart tells the story. Price ran into the descending resistance line for the fourth touch and got rejected. That line has now capped every rally since February and it did it again. Below, price is sitting right back on the rising green trendline, the ninth touch.
The multi-timeframe box has flipped back to Bear lean. 15m and 1H both turned bearish overnight. Only the 4H holds bullish. Yesterday it was three green, today it is one.
H4
Here is the part that keeps the bulls alive. The Wyckoff panel is unchanged: ACCUMULATION, 3 springs, 1 test, and still zero upthrusts. Range support at 4,023 sits right under price. Volume neutral at 0.9x.
Zero upthrusts after all these weeks still matters. This pullback has not broken the accumulation read yet.
Bottom Line
Gold got rejected near the line that has held all year, and the macro headwind switched back on the same day. The bounce failed its first real test.
But this is a pullback inside a range, not a breakdown. Price is back on the rising trendline and the top of the weekly demand zone, which is where buyers stepped in multiple times before. The accumulation structure is intact with zero upthrusts.
The plan: 4,023 to 3,976 is the zone that decides whether this week's rally was real or just noise. Hold it and the higher low stays in place, keeping the accumulation case alive for another attempt at the trendline. Lose 3,976 and this whole move gets erased, with 3,884 back in play.
Upside now needs a lot: reclaim 4,059, then 4,131, then break the trendline near 4,180. That is a heavy lift with the dollar rising again.
