The Oriental 🥷

Turkey and Saudi rebuilding Hijaz Railway, basically eliminating IMEC. Good move!

On March 4, only about a week into the "Second US/real War on Iran" we laid out 4 scenarios, of which 2&4 had highest probability score. As events continued to develop on the ground, Scenario 2 emerged as a dominant one. After 100+ days of war, so-called "ceasefire" incl., this Scenario holds, and is confirmed by Prof. R. Pape (real Professor not a YouTube fraud).

Assessment: Potential Trajectories Following a U.S./Israel Military Strike on Iran Date: March 2026 Author: Strategic Foresight/The Oriental View Scenario 1: The Existential Cascade The Erosion of the Nuclear Taboo Leading to Global War In this high-risk / low-probability trajectory, a conventional U.S.-Israeli operation fails to neutralize Iran's strategic capabilities. Facing unacceptable losses from asymmetric retaliation and domestic collapse, Israel, potentially with tacit U.S. approval, employs tactical nuclear weapons against hardened Iranian nuclear and military facilities. The Tipping Point: The use of battlefield nuclear weapons irrevocably shatters the post-1945 nuclear taboo. Adversary states, particularly North Korea, interpret the strike as a doctrinal shift in U.S. escalation policy. Fearing a preemptive decapitation strike, Pyongyang launches a limited nuclear barrage against U.S. force concentrations in the Pacific and Seoul to guarantee regime survival. The Cascade: 1. U.S. Retaliation: Washington responds with a full-scale strategic strike against North Korea. 2. Great Power Entanglement: Radioactive fallout and military chaos on the Korean Peninsula force China onto a supreme war footing. A miscalculation or inadvertent engagement between U.S. and PLA forces in the region escalates into a strategic nuclear exchange. 3. Global Configuration: Russia, viewing the U.S.-China conflict as the onset of a general world war and adhering to its "escalate to de-escalate" doctrine, launches its full retaliatory arsenal against NATO and U.S. homeland targets. Outcome: A full-scale nuclear exchange devastates the Northern Hemisphere, ending Western civilization. The conflict ceases to have political objectives; it reverts to a struggle for bare survival in a post-apocalyptic environment. Winners: None. Scenario 2: The Multipolar Pivot Stalemate Forcing a New Security Architecture This scenario assumes a protracted, costly war of attrition. Iran leverages its asymmetric capabilities (cyber warfare, missile barrages, and proxy networks) to inflict sustained economic damage, triggering a deep global recession. The U.S. finds itself in a military quagmire with no viable path to victory and eroding domestic support. The Strategic Recalculation: Facing political collapse at home, a weakened U.S. administration is forced to seek a diplomatic off-ramp. With its military credibility diminished, Washington cannot dictate terms. It must negotiate as an impaired party. The Brokerage: Russia and China, whose influence expanded during the conflict, emerge as the primary guarantors of a ceasefire. The resulting settlement is modeled on a "Concert of Powers" system, echoing Beijing's Global Security Initiative (GSI). It emphasizes multilateral guarantees and recognized spheres of influence. Outcome: The post-Cold War U.S.-centric order is formally dissolved. Iran is integrated as a legitimate regional stakeholder under a new great-power understanding. Security is no longer imposed unilaterally but managed via direct understanding between Washington, Beijing, and Moscow. Winners: Russia, China, Iran. Scenario 3: Systemic Fracture Protracted War and the Collapse of the Old Order The conflict degenerates into a years-long war of attrition, avoiding nuclear escalation but destroying the global economy through permanent energy shocks, hyperinflation, and broken supply chains. The strain proves too great for existing international structures. The Fragmentation: · Europe: The European Union fractures politically as member states clash over refugee flows, rationing, and security burdens. The bloc ceases to function as a unified actor. · The Global South: The post-colonial legacy of arbitrary borders and implanted states becomes a mainstream narrative of blame, fueling irredentist conflicts and state collapse. · Power Vacuum: As traditional Western powers are consumed by internal crises and diminished credibility, non-state actors & regional proxies fill the void.(pt 2)👇🏼

A year ago we summarized the strategy. If you look at the daily news, you'll lose sight of the big picture.

'Trump Screwed Us': Israel Freaks Out On Iran Deal Panic and anger mount in Israel as U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks near a deal. Ynet News reports Israeli officials sharply criticize the agreement, calling it a "catastrophe" that fails strategic objectives and hands Tehran a victory. One official blasted Trump, saying, "Trump screwed us." Officials warn that without removing Iran's enriched uranium and dismantling its nuclear infrastructure, the deal could embolden Tehran. Backlash stems from claims Israel was excluded from negotiations and Netanyahu was caught off guard by Trump's surprise announcement.

Our strategic foresight: Trump is not “losing control” of the Middle East - he’s using Israel's hubris, the G7's irrelevance, and NATO’s obsolescence to reset global power terms on his own turf, with Russia and China as (willing) transactional partners in a new “realist” world order. The Endgame: BRICS+ becomes the de facto global economic steering group, with the U.S. as a “sovereign participant,” like all the rest. The geopolitics of strategic ambiguity (Godfather Machiavelli) rules: ✅ Keep adversaries guessing ✅ Keep allies unsure ✅ Force everyone to bid for your loyalty (Don 😉)

🇷🇺 'Today is the Russia Day and God almighty is always with our country' — Putin

🇦🇪🇮🇷 UAE u-turn on Iran in the making... more surprises coming!... ⏳

And next thing you know... he announces deal signed - war over US President Trump claimed that the United States had “ended the war” with Iran today, after asserting earlier that the two sides had agreed to a “very strong memorandum of understanding” to stop the fighting. Crazy Horse Year!

❗️Trump promises Iran 'will have to PAY THE PRICE' After claiming Tehran missed the chance to negotiate 'The bully of the Middle East is DEAD'

NBC News reports the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency has elevated Israel's counterintelligence threat to its highest level due to concerns over intelligence gathering on sensitive US decisions. This occurs during a complex phase in US-Israel relations; while strategic partners, differences persist regarding Iran, regional operations, and diplomatic strategy. Current and former officials state Israel's interest in US policymaking faces renewed Washington scrutiny. Despite this, intelligence sharing and military cooperation reportedly remain intact.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump said he would be "honored" to meet Iran's Supreme Leader, despite Washington-Tehran tensions. When asked if the leader might resent him over past U.S. conflicts, Trump noted he is likely "not his favorite person" but acknowledged the leader's strong reputation. Trump also compared this to criticism of himself, arguing negative portrayals of public figures are often inaccurate. "New Ayatollah and me", like "Me and Bobby McGee"

Trump: 'I started Iran war, would be no Israel without me' US President Donald Trump confirmed that he called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "f****ing crazy" during a call on Monday in an interview on Pod Force One released on Wednesday. Read more

🇺🇸⚡️🇮🇱😎 From somewhere around here. All you need to remember about Trump saving (netan)Yahoo.

'You’re F**** Crazy': Trump Snaps At Netanyahu As Iran Draws Redline Over Beirut Trump reportedly erupted at Israeli PM Netanyahu over Israel’s Lebanon escalation, warning that a planned Beirut strike could derail critical US-Iran negotiations. Axios described the exchange as one of the worst calls between the two leaders. As Israel deepens operations in Lebanon and seizes historic Beaufort Castle, Tehran threatens to abandon talks with Washington and warns of possible “direct confrontation.” Trump claims he urged Netanyahu to halt a Beirut raid, but Netanyahu insists Israel’s southern Lebanon campaign will continue “as planned.” - Indian media

Trump threatened to "blow up" Muscat if it sided with Iran over Hormuz control Trump escalating Gulf tensions by threatening sanctions against Oman for aiding Iran's tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Washington would aggressively target those helping Tehran. Trump threatened to "blow up" Muscat if it sided with Iran over Hormuz control, intensifying fears of a wider Middle East confrontation and global oil market chaos. US losing Arab 'allies', one after another.

Secret US-Israeli plan threatening Al Aqsa mosque - Middle East Eye MEE claims the US and Israel are "actively working" to strip Jordan of its historic custodianship of Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa Mosque complex. The revered Muslim site has been managed for decades by the Jordanian-appointed Islamic Waqf. The new US proposal was championed by President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and the US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee. It seeks to replace the Waqf with a new authority appointed by Israel’s government. The body would declare the Al-Aqsa Mosque a "multi-faith centre" and have the power to monitor everything from the appointment of imams to the content of Friday sermons. ... The next US-raeli "ally" to be screwed after UAE is - Jordan.

👹 So much for Iran: Levin posits regime change - for Netanyahu? Israel could face a scenario in which all of its enemies survive and its government is taken over by "the weakest elements" in Israeli politics, according to Mark Levin, a US journalist and ally of Donald Trump.

💬 "But Netanyahu has to navigate a lot of waters, including dealing with us, dealing with Europe. dealing with the Arab countries… I don't know who else could do anything like this, quite frankly," he adds.

When you really want to change the regime in Iran but something goes wrong... Via @geopolitics_prime

All Muslim leaders who participated in a conference call with US President Donald Trump urged him to strike a deal with Iran and end hostilities in the region, Axios correspondent Barak Ravid wrote citing his sources.

"A regional source said all the Arab and Muslim leaders on the call with Trump on Saturday urged him to go ahead with the deal to end the war and de-escalate the situation in the region," he wrote on the X social network. "The message from everyone was - please stop the war for the benefit of the whole region."

🇮🇱⚡️🇺🇸 Israeli politician Avigdor Lieberman, who once said there are no innocents in Gaza: Trump is putting the entire State of Israel through a humiliating journey with Netanyahu's blessing. 🚩 ResistanceTrench | Boost