Macro Trader

The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to a 4.25% to 4.5% target range. Policymakers projected rates would end next year at 5.1%, according to their median forecast, before being cut to 4.1% in 2024 -- a higher level than previously indicated.

Bottom-line: 물가지표가 발표되기 바로 직전에 대량으로 유입 된 국채매수와 관련하여 사전에 정보가 유출 된 것 아니냔 의문에 그런 일은 있을 수 없다고 공식적으로 답변함. 오히려 시장 참여자들이 사소한 움작임에도 과민하게 반응하고 있다고 지적함. US government officials said they were not aware of any early leaks of closely watched inflation data Tuesday, following a surge of Treasuries buying that took place seconds before the report was released. President Joe Biden’s press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, told reporters she was not aware of any leaks coming out of the White House, and suggested observers were reading too much into the market moves. “I can tell you this: There were no leaks from here,” Jean-Pierre said Tuesday. “I can tell you definitively, or at least I’m not aware of any leaks.”. “People may be reading a little bit too much into this,” she added. Jean-Pierre described the jump in asset prices as “minor market movements.” 

미안.

Traders Beware, the Fed is watching this Rally. 🥶

Bottom-line: 물가지표 발표 이후 시장 참여자들이 생각하는 중앙은행의 통화정책 경로가 하루 사이 바뀌었음. 어제(파란색) 대비 오늘(노란색)이 더 낮게 내려감. There’s a big shift in investor expectations for the Fed’s rate path from yesterday (blue) to today (yellow).

Bottom-line: 물가에도 안도감을 가지니 이제 노동시장으로 시각이 옮겨가는데, 임금이 과열에서 벗어나려면 서비스업과 같이 노동력이 부족한 곳에서 공급이 생겨야 하는데, 이 부분을 어떻게 해소해 나갈지는 여전히 의문임. That’s a very interesting point from Ellen Zentner on the labor market coming back into focus. One issue there is wages, especially for sectors still experiencing worker shortages, such as services. It’s tough to see how we’re going to have a slowdown in wage growth there, unless something drastically changes with the labor supply.

Here’s a breakdown of the top-line contributors to the US core CPI number of 0.2% MoM.

US equity futures still in the green, with the contracts tied to the S&P 500 surging as much as 3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures have jumped as much as 4%.

Used cars were finally a negative contributor to annual inflation growth!

Bottom-line: 통화정책회의에서 인플레이션에 대한 실질적인 증거를 찾고 있다고 발언했는데, 2개월 연속 하락이 그에 충분한지 알 수 없지만, 적어도 이에 압박을 받을 것임. Powell noted at the end of November that he’s looking for “substantially more evidence” to be certain that inflation is actually declining. I don’t know if this second straight month of declines will be enough to meet that standard, but he’ll surely be pressed on that at the briefing.

Bottom-line: 통화정책회의에서 인플레이션에 대한 실질적인 증거를 찾고 있다고 발언했는데, 2개월 연속 하락이 그에 충분하진 알 수 없지만, 적어도 이에 압박을 받을 것임. Powell noted at the end of November that he’s looking for “substantially more evidence” to be certain that inflation is actually declining. I don’t know if this second straight month of declines will be enough to meet that standard, but he’ll surely be pressed on that at the briefing.

Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 통화정책이 인플레이션을 통제하고 있다는 의미있는 첫 신호로 해석함. Lindsay Rosner, multisector portfolio manager at PGIM Fixed Income, says this was an “important piece of the story of rate hikes working.” She calls it the “first really meaningful beat.”

Bottom-line: 중앙은행이 내년 금리인상 폭을 25bp로 하는데 자신감을 줄 수 있는 발표가 되었음. This should give Powell some confidence tomorrow if he had planned on signaling a further step down in the magnitude of rate hikes to 25 basis points in February, after the 50 basis points that’s expected on Wednesday.

Treasury yields fall sharply on the CPI report, with the 2-year down 20bps. Yields were falling heading into CPI, and the data affirm inflation is now in retreat.

Wowsers! Look at those stock futures, up 3%. We’re seeing a similar pattern to last month.