Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 래리 서머스는 중앙은행의 금리인상이 중단되어야 한다는 목소리가 커지는 것에 대해 경계해야 한다고 주장함. 바이러스 대확산 이후 경제 전문가들의 인플레이션에 대한 예상은 지속 틀려왔으며, 핵심물가지수가 6%를 넘어가는 시기에 정책금리 4%의 수준으로 물가가 2%까지 떨어질 수 있다고 진심으로 믿는 사람이 있는가라고 반문하면서, 중앙은행이 지금의 길을 그대로 가야 한다고 주장함. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says in a tweet that the “growing chorus” for the Fed to pause interest rate hikes very soon is “badly misguided.”. The president emeritus of Harvard University says that this is “consensus of economists who have a track record, since COVID, of being dismally wrong on inflation.”. He adds that history shows that the Fed has paused too soon many times and asks, “Does anyone really believe that raising rates beyond 4 will bring core inflation from well above 6 percent down below 2 percent?” He concludes that the Federal Reserve should “stay on the current course and then evaluate things.”.

Bottom-line: 래리 서머스는 중앙은행의 금리인상이 중단되어야 한다는 목소리가 커지는 것에 대해 경계해야 한다고 주장함. 바이러스 대확산 이후 경제 전문가들의 인플레이션에 대한 예상은 지속 틀려왔으며, 핵심물가지수가 6%를 넘어가는 시기에 정책금리 4%의 수준으로 물가가 2%까지 떨어질 수 있다고 진심으로 믿는 사람이 있는가라고 반문하면서, 중앙은행이 지금의 길을 그대로 가야 한다고 주장함. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says in a tweet that the “growing chorus” for the Fed to pause interest rate hikes very soon is “badly misguided.” The president emeritus of Harvard University says that this is “consensus of economists who have a track record, since COVID, of being dismally wrong on inflation.” He adds that history shows that the Fed has paused too soon many times and asks, “Does anyone really believe that raising rates beyond 4 will bring core inflation from well above 6 percent down below 2 percent?” He concludes that the Federal Reserve should “stay on the current course and then evaluate things.”.

Bottom-line: 고용시장 지표에서 여전히 일자리가 풍족하며 노동자를 구하는데 어려움이 있다는 것을 알 수 있었음. 제조업 지표에서는 신규 주문, 생산, 고용이 상승하며 여전히 강한 수요를 확인시켰음. 이는 중앙은행이 속도를 조절 할 것이란 기대를 무산시킴. 강한 고용에 대한 욕구는 기업들의 단기 수요에 대한 자신감에서 발현되었고, 이는 임금상승과 가계소비 증가를 견인할 것이므로 중앙은행에 압박으로 작용함. 칸서스나 달라스 제조업 지표에서도 직무 전문성을 위해 직원을 교육하는데 자원을 투입하거나, 직원이 상당히 부족해 적극적 고용의 의사가 있다고 답변했었음. The labor market remains plenty strong. That might lend to more flattening of the Treasury curve. As we’ve flagged earlier, today’s JOLTS report showed a surprise jump in job vacancies, potentially frustrating the Fed’s downshift plan. Plus, the October ISM manufacturing signaled new orders, production and employment components rose as demand remains strong. Like in September, mentions of large-scale layoffs were absent from ISM panelists’ comments. And survey panelists said they continue to carefully manage hiring. That may indicate companies are confident of near-term demand. A strong appetite for labor fuels wage gains, strengthens consumer demand and adds to what has been described as much too high inflation. That keeps pressure on the Fed to keep on tightening. Meanwhile, last week’s Kansas City Fed factory survey showed 65% of firms devoting significantly or slightly more resources to training workers in order to meet skill requirements. This shows a commitment to current workforces. And as mentioned Monday, 62.8% of firms report being short staffed, according to the most recent Dallas Fed business outlook survey. More than half of those firms actively engaged potential workers. Those are all signals of a strong job market and reasons for Fed tightening and curve narrowing to continue.

The Treasury curve flattened after the US October manufacturing report beat estimates, even as prices eased. Components of new orders, production and employment rose. At the same time, prices paid fell into contraction and to the lowest since the start of the pandemic. Backlogs and supplier deliveries also slipped into contraction -- meaning product snarls are easing. The net of the report is that demand remains strong and prices are declining. While the latter is good news for the Fed, demand remains firm, and the central bank has said it cannot take the foot off tightening for fear of inflation resurging again.

Bottom-line: 이렇게 좋을지 몰랐고, 중앙은행을 압박할 것임. Job Openings in US Unexpectedly Rise, Keeping Pressure on Fed.

Bottom-line: 이미 많은 국채 수익률 차이를 계산하는 방식이 0 이하로 떨어진 상태에서 중앙은행이 가장 주시한다는 3개월-18개월 차이가 0에 근접하고 있음. 이에 따라 4.34%로 2007년 이후 최고치를 기록했던 미국 국채 10년물 금리가 3.94%까지 하락하며 채권 랠리를 이어가고 있음. 지난 3월 많은 채권 거래자들이 국채 2년물 금리가 국채 10년물 금리를 상회할 때 경고했던 경기침체의 위험을 파월은 잘못됐다 말하면서 3개월-18개월 수익률 차이를 보자고 했었음. 만일 이 수익률이 역전되면 경기가 약해졌다는 이야기고, 금리를 인하할 수 있다고 했기 때문임. Bonds rallied ahead of what promises to be the Federal Reserve’s fifth-straight outsized rate hike later this week amid fresh warnings that a recession is inevitable as the central bank continues to tighten policy. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell as much as 11 basis points to 3.94%, compared to a peak of 4.34% last month, the highest since 2007. Traders are looking ahead to ISM manufacturing data for further clues on the state of the US economy before the Fed sets policy on Wednesday, where another three-quarter point hike looks like a near certainty. Bund yields fell 10 basis points to 2.05%. The rush for bonds comes as Chair Jerome Powell’s favored portion of the yield curve -- the difference between where three-month rates are now versus where they are expected to be in 18 months’ time -- is on the cusp of inverting, with the spread between the two tumbling to a mere 0.2 percentage points Tuesday from 2.7 percentage points in April. An inverted yield curve is a key warning sign for many investors that a recession is coming as the market begins to price in an end to tighter policy and braces for lower rates in the future to soften the blow of a looming slowdown. Many closely-watched spreads in the Treasury market have already flipped below zero. In March, Powell downplayed the significance of two-year yields rising above 10-year rates -- an often-cited harbinger of recession. He argued traders were looking at the wrong metric and that the shorter-end measure gives a clearer read because “if it’s inverted, that means the Fed’s going to cut, which means the economy is weak.”.

Bottom-line: 바이러스 억제 정책을 완화하는데 대한 움직임 없다고 답변함. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said he’s “not aware of what you mentioned,” when asked whether the government formed a committee to assess ways to exit Covid Zero. 'unconfirmed social media posts speculating that a committee was being formed to assess scenarios on how to exit Covid Zero.'

In Case You Missed It • 정책금리 인상에 따른 채권 회피 현상 • 물가지표 쇼크에도 반등한 이유는? • 주가 반등을 크게 만든 알고리즘 매매 • 정책금리 6%가 될 수 있는 경우는? • 옵션에 대한 개인적 생각 • 변동성은 왜 낮을까에 대한 사담 • R*와 R**에 대한 사담 • R**는 출구를 위한 변명일까? • 파월은 어떤 사람으로 기억되고 싶을까?

Bottom-line: 인스타그램 계정 체크. Reports of problems using Instagram surged Monday morning, with people citing random suspensions of their accounts and frequent app crashes, according to data on Downdetector. Many comments on Downdetector and posts on Twitter said Instagram accounts were suspended without reason. There were over 7,000 reports of outages as of 10:15 a.m. New York time.

Bottom-line: 1929년, 1987년, 2008년 때문에 10월은 공포의 달로 생각될 수 있지만, 두 가지 측면에서 긍정적의 시작일 수도 있음. 과거 17번의 약세 시장국면을 끝낸 '곰 사냥꾼'으로써 10월은 6번의 역할을 했음. 또한 중간선거와 관련해 계절성이 있는데, 대통령 임기의 16개 분기 중 중간선거가 있는 4분기와 다음 해 1분기가 가장 강한 수익률을 보였다는 것임. 이런 일이 다시 반복될 수 있을까? Although October can evoke fear on Wall Street following stock market crashes in 1929, 1987 and 2008, it’s living up to its reputation as the best month in US midterm election years. Now traders are holding out hope that this October will follow a historical pattern of being a “bear-market killer” following a turbulent year for US equities. The S&P 500 Index has surged nearly 9% this month, putting it on track for its biggest monthly gain since July and its second-best month in nearly two years. When stocks do poorly in September, a rebound tends to be common. In fact, midterm years have typically been quite strong in October, with the index rising 2.7% on average during the month since 1950, according to The Stock Trader’s Almanac. October earned its reputation as “bear killer” after turning the tide in six of the past 17 bear or near-bear markets since World War II, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. And when it comes to elections, the fourth quarter of midterm years and the following first quarter historically have been the two strongest of the 16-quarter presidential cycle, delivering average gains of 6.4% and 6.9% respectively for the S&P 500, according to investment research firm CFRA. “While October has a reputation for crashes, it is really a bear market killer,” Detrick wrote in a note. “Could it happen again? With sentiment this pessimistic and extremely positive seasonals right around the corner, we’d be open to it.”.

끝.

5. Valuation 끝으로 밸류에이션입니다. 기업이 펀더멘탈 대비 할인되어 거래되서 투자 매력도가 높다고 하려면, 이제 선제되어야 할 것이 무언지 알 수 있습니다. i) 거시경제와 관련 된 헤드라인이 잠잠해지고, ii) 종목들의 가격 집단성이 낮아져야 합니다. 그래야 시장 참여자들이 개별 기업이 무슨 일을 하고 있으며, 그 일이 과거로부터 현재까지 어떤 상황에 있는지 현명하고 냉정하게 판단할 수 있습니다. 그때서야 비로서 탐방을 통해 발굴한 종목에서 초과수익을 발견할 수 있습니다. '지각과 현실'의 차이를 발견하는 것은 늘 새롭겠습니다만, 그 차이를 발견하기에는 우리는 너무나 바쁩니다.