Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 중국 당국은 은행들이 채권과 연계 된 금융상품에서 대규모 인출이 발생할 때 이에 응할 수 있는 충분한 유동성을 확보하고 있는지 보고토록 지시했음. 이는 10조 달러 규모의 중국 주식시장이 바이러스 억제 정책 완화, 부동산 지원, 서방 국가와의 긴장 완화 등 일련의 움직임이 이어지는 가운데 큰 폭으로 상승하면서 발생한 안전자산에서 위험자산으로의 급격한 자금 이동 때문임. 이 기간 동안 최고 등급의 회사채의 금리조차 급등했음. Chinese regulators asked banks to report on their ability to meet short-term obligations after a rapid selloff in bonds triggered a flood of investor withdrawals from fixed-income products, according to people familiar with the matter. The unscheduled regulatory queries coincided with the biggest decline in China’s short-term government debt since mid-2020. The slump -- spurred by a shift toward riskier assets including stocks -- prompted retail investors to pull money from wealth-management products, fueling a spiral of price declines and accelerating withdrawals. Losses also spread to top-rated corporate bonds, stoking a record surge in yields this week. This week’s turbulence is an unexpected side-effect of growing economic optimism. China’s $10 trillion stock market has soared in recent days after President Xi Jinping’s government eased some of its strict Covid Zero policies, rolled out a rescue package for the property sector and moved to cool tensions with the US and other western nations. With money flowing into shares and other economically sensitive investments, safe haven bets on government bonds have suffered. “The slump in bond market lately has caused some retreat in mark-to-market value in some of the wealth management products,” Bank of China Ltd.’s wealth management unit said in a statement on Wednesday. “The PBOC’s monetary easing has trailed expectations, which tightened liquidity condition and pushed money market rates higher, while the adjustments in property and Covid policies to support economic growth have also lifted sentiment.”.

Hi, i'm back. 👋

Bottom-line: Inflation, Sank. 🏌🏼 S&P 500 futures extended gains, while yields on 10-year Treasuries fell and the dollar dropped to a session low, after producer prices rose less than expected, easing inflation concerns.

Bottom-line: 폴 크루그먼은 중앙은행이 해야 할 일을 충분히 했기에, 이제 멈춰서 금리인상이 경제에 미치는 영향을 지켜봐야 한다 주장함. 이는 미국인들의 장기와 단기 물가 예상이 오른 것과 달리 시장 추정을 하회하는 물가지표가 발표 된 뒤 한 말임. 1980년대 이후 물가를 통제하기 위해 가장 공격적인 금리인상을 하는 중앙은행에 그는 물가가 현재가 아닌 지난날을 알려줄 뿐이며, 그는 물가로 무슨 일이 발생하는지 판단하는 것을 개인적으론 이제 중단했다고 밝힘. Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman sees good reasons for the Federal Reserve to consider pausing its interest-rate increases to assess the effects of its hikes on the US economy so far this year. “My view is that the Fed has probably done enough already, and that they really, really should pause and wait to see,” Krugman said Friday on “Balance of Power” with David Westin on Bloomberg Television. “If we get another good CPI report, then there’s going to be a lot of soul-searching at the Fed, saying, ‘are we really being way too hawkish?’”. Krugman spoke a day after a government report showed that the consumer price index rose by less than forecast last month, fueled by declines in the price gauges of medical care services and used vehicles. Meanwhile, a separate report out Friday showed an increase in Americans’ short- and long-term inflation expectations. The Fed has embarked on the most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1980s this year in an effort to tame decades-high inflation. The central bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points for a fourth straight time last week, but is expected to moderate the pace of hiking as soon as next month following the cooler-than-expected inflation report. “The number you see for inflation is in many ways a portrait of where the economy was last winter, not a portrait of where the economy is now, and where the economy is now is probably a lot more favorable,” said Krugman, now at the City University of New York. “I have largely given up personally on using the CPI to judge what’s going on at all.”

• TGIF! The deadline for hedge funds to disclose equity holdings in 13F filings is Monday. 다음 주는 헤지펀드들의 포지션 공시를 살펴보겠습니다.

Wow.

2022년 연 초 이후 오늘까지로 다시 통계를 내보면 2시그마 값은 +4.02% 입니다. 그러므로 오늘 5.5% 상승은 보합에서 약간 상승했다고 보면 될 정도로, 우리는 상승도 하락도, 굉장한 변동성의 한 해를 보내고 있습니다.

2015년부터 2022년 현재까지 나스닥 100 현물 지수의 일간 변동폭에 대해 2시그마 값은 +2.93%입니다. 그러므로 금일 5.5% 상승은 매우 높은 수준으로 보입니다.

가격 변동에 대해.

물가지표에서 하락기여, 상승기여한 내역입니다. Bye.