Macro Trader

Powell: 인플레이션을 통제하기 위해 반드시 실업률이 엄청나게 증가해야 한다고 생각하지 않는다 함. “We actually don’t think we need to see a sharp or an enormous increase.” in unemployment in order to get inflation under control, Powell says.

Powell & Warren: 워런의 경우 약 200만명이 일자리를 통화긴축 때문에 상실할 것이라 비난했고, 파월 의장은 인플레이션에 모두가 피해를 입었고 이를 해결하기 위해 노력 중이라 답함. 또한 인플레이션을 진압하는 이 경로를 중단한다고 노동자들이 나아질 것인지 반문함. Warren says about 2 million people will lose their jobs as a result of the Fed’s anticipated monetary tightening. She asks Powell how to explain to them they must lose their jobs. Powell says he would explain that inflation is extremely high and hurting everyone. Powell says the Fed is doing its job to address that damage. Powell asks Warren if working people will be better off if they were to stop their inflation-fighting campaign. Warren said the Fed “has a terrible track record” of mitigating job losses once they start. Powell will tip the economy over a cliff and millions will lose their jobs.

둘이 싸우나.

Powell: 경제지표를 통해 중앙은행이 과도한 긴축정책을 시행하고 있다는 것은 없으며, 할 일이 더 남았을 뿐이라 함. Nothing about the data suggests to me that we’ve tightened too much. more work to do.

Powell: 긴축적인 통화정책이 경제에 미치는 영향이 시차를 가지기 때문에 이 효과를 지켜볼 것이라 함. Tightening policy has delayed effects, so central bank will be watching to see those effects come into play.

Britt & Powell: 금리인상에 주요하게 보는 요인에 대한 질문에 파월 의장은 상품, 주택, 그리고 서비스 부문의 인플레이션이라 답함. In the coming year, what factors is Powell paying attention to as the FOMC decides whether to increase rates. Powell says they will be looking at inflation in three areas: the goods sector, housing sector and the broader service sector.

Powell: 물가 상승의 원천은 공급망 붕괴였지만, 이제 주택과 기타 부문으로 확산 중임. The source of the original inflation was the collapse of the global supply chain. It has now spread to housing and other sectors, he adds.

Powell: 노동시장은 과열 상태가 심각한 수준이라 평가함. The labor market is “extremely tight, extremely” with the lowest unemployment rate in 54 years and, by most estimates, exceeding maximum employment.

Powell: 인플레이션에 관해 파월 의장은 기대에 미치지 못하고 있으며, 가야 할 길이 멀다고 함. We focus on everything but we also focus on core in particular, which doesn’t include energy prices. He notes that inflation hasn’t come down nearly as fast as hoped and “we still have a long way to go.”

Analyst: 공통적인 반응은 예상보다 강경한 어조라는 것, 다만 모든 정책회의마다 그 전에 발표 된 경제지표에 기인할 것이라는 점 또한 강조함. BMO - Powell’s prepared text was biased hawkishly (more so than we anticipated) with comments that the Fed is ‘prepared to increase the pace of hikes if needed’ and the ‘ultimate rate peak is likely higher than expected.’ He went on to note decisions will be made ‘meeting by meeting. Evercore - Fed chair Powell’s prepared testimony to Congress is more hawkish than we had anticipated and risk-off. The analysis of economic data is along the lines we had expected and Powell continued to point to policy lags, but the policy lean is more aggressive and forward-leaning.

Powell: 브라운의 암호화폐 시장에 대한 규제 질문에 파월 의장은 혁신을 막을 생각은 없으며, 다만, 사기행각과 투명성 부족에 대해서는 면밀히 주시하고 있다 답변함. Powell says the central bank doesn’t want to stifle innovation. But the Fed is watching what’s been happening in crypto and it’s seeing fraud and a lack of transparency, among other things.

Summary of Remarks: 파월 의장의 발언을 요약하자면, 물가 목표치 2%를 달성하기 위해 최선을 다할 것이며, 다만 이러한 정책 기조는 지속적으로 발표되는 경제지표에 의존할 것이란 사실을 유지했음. Powell acknowledges the hardship caused by high inflation and expresses a strong commitment to returning inflation to the 2 percent goal. He reviews the current economic situation, highlighting the slowdown in growth but tight labor market conditions. He also mentions the increase in interest rates by 4-1/2 percentage points over the past year to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. The Committee has been slowing the pace of interest rate increases over its past two meetings, and they will continue to make decisions meeting by meeting based on the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation. The overarching focus is to use the tools to bring inflation back down to the 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

Powell now begins reading his prepared text.

Scott: 그는 인플레이션에 대해 심각한 위기라고 다시 한 번 강조함. “It is a crisis,”

Scott: 스캇은 브라운의 주장에 정면으로 반박하며, 최악의 인플레이션 상황에서 긴축적이지 않을 수 없다는 의견을 표명함. “I am sure he is sincere in his rant,” Scott says of Brown, but says printing and spending trillions ahead of the worst inflation in 40 years and “out-of-control spending” is the issue. He implies Covid was used as “a Trojan horse” to try to bring in socialism.

Powell: 과거를 통해 보더라도, 성급한 긴축 완화를 할 수 없으며, 중앙은행의 역할을 지속 이어갈 것임. “The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.”

Market Reaction: 스왑 시장에 반영 된 3월 통화정책회의의 금리인상폭은 36bp로 50bp 인상 확률은 아직 50% 미만임. The March OIS swap is pricing in 36bps of hikes for this month, still less than a 50% chance of a half-point hike, but it bears watching once Powell starts chatting. The shift in rate expectations has pushed two-year yield to a fresh cycle high of 4.96%.

Brown: 중앙은행은 인플레이션을 이야기할 때 노동자의 임금이 아니라 기업을 탓해야 하지 않겠는가? Blame corporations, not wages, for inflation. He wants the Fed to talk about it.

Question: 만일 금리인상 속도를 다시 높일 경우, 중앙은행의 신뢰성에 문제가 제기 될 것임. 애초에 25bp 인상폭으로 내리지 말았어야 했던게 아닌가? One danger of speeding things up again is that it could raise questions of credibility. In retrospect, should the Fed not have stepped down to 25 at the latest meeting?

Brown kicks off the hearing with his opening statement.