Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 소수지만 최종금리를 5%까지 전망하는 시장 참여자도 있는 반면, 기존 점도표는 모든 구간 4% 아래에 있음. 만일 통화정책회의에서 이 괴리를 충족시키지 못할 경우 달러는 강한 되돌림을 일으킬 수 있음. The US dollar’s rally is at risk of a reversal if the Federal Reserve sets its interest-rate outlook at a lower level than traders are betting on. Market-implied expectations for the so-called dot plot jumped this month, with some betting the peak will be around 5%, if not higher. Markets are pricing a peak at 4.5% by March and an end-2023 rate of 4% to 4.25%. In contrast, the most recent forecasts by Fed officials in June are almost all below 4% for 2022-2024. “A more dovish dot plot may see some scope for USD to sell off,” said Galvin Chia, emerging-market FX strategist at Natwest Markets in Singapore. “Markets will be closely looking to this for guidance.”

Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 금리 결정을 앞두고 이미 지나치게 비관적인 시장에서 경험이 깊은 투자자는 주식과 채권에 대한 매도 포지션을 우선 청산하고 관망하라고 함. Some investors have a message for anyone looking to bet big before one of the most pivotal Federal Reserve policy meetings of this year: don’t, or risk getting burned. “Close shorts on equities and bonds,” said Stephen Miller, a four-decade market veteran and investment consultant at GSFM, a unit of Canada’s CI Financial Corp. in Sydney. “I’d be closing long dollar positions too -- -- the next 24 hours are so uncertain when the market has already worked itself into such a pessimistic lather into the meeting.”. Miller’s caution is mirrored across trading desks from Woori Bank in Seoul to BNP Paribas Asset Management in Hong Kong as investors brace for another jumbo rate hike from a Federal Reserve bent on cooling surging price pressures. Markets are pricing in a 75-basis point rate increase with a chance of a full-percentage point rise -- a risk that would only compound recession fears.

Bottom-line: 한국의 20일간 수출이 전년 대비 -8.7%로 발표됐지만, 조업일수와 계절조정을 거칠 경우 우려를 더하는 수치는 아님. South Korea’s 20-days exports delivered a nasty-looking headline result, registering the steepest y/y contraction since 2020. However, a day-count and seasonally-adjusted number shows shipments flat, so the readings should not increase concern about the health of the global economy and the outlook for risk assets.

US stocks dropped and Treasury yields hit more multiyear highs as investors braced for the Fed meeting. The S&P 500 fell more than 1%, pushing it more than 10% below its Aug. 16 high.

Bottom-line: 그렇지, 이 정도 타이밍에 이런 인사가 2008년의 레거시를 가지고 한 마디 해줄 때가 됐지. Economist Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, sees a “long and ugly” recession in the US and globally occurring at the end of 2022 that could last all of 2023 and a sharp correction in the S&P 500. “Even in a plain vanilla recession, the S&P 500 can fall by 30%,” said Roubini, chairman and chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates, in an interview Monday. In “a real hard landing,” which he expects, it could fall 40%. Roubini whose prescience on the housing bubble crash of 2007 to 2008 earned him the nickname Dr. Doom, said that those expecting a shallow US recession should be looking at the large debt ratios of corporations and governments. As rates rise and debt servicing costs increase, “many zombie institutions, zombie households, corporates, banks, shadow banks and zombie countries are going to die,” he said. “So we’ll see who’s swimming naked.”

Bottom-line: 올해 맥, 아이폰, 아이패드의 가격을 인상한 애플은 10월 5일부터 대다수 국가에서 앱스토어의 앱과 앱 내 구매 가격을 인상하겠다고 밝힘. 베트남을 제외한 다른 국가의 인상 이유는 밝히지 않았으나 달러 대비 여타 국가의 통화 약세에 기인한 것으로 보임. Apple Inc. unveiled major increases to its price tiers on apps and in-app purchases from Europe to Asia, protecting its margins as major currencies tumble against the US dollar. Customers in nations that use the euro as well as those in Sweden, Japan, South Korea, Chile, Egypt, Malaysia, Pakistan and Vietnam will all see price hikes as early as Oct. 5, the company said in a message to developers. The move in Vietnam also reflects new local regulations around tax collection, Apple said, without elaborating on why it’s raising prices elsewhere. The strong dollar may be a key driver. In Japan, prices are rising by roughly 30%, a significant hike that follows the yen’s dramatic weakening this year. Apple earlier this summer raised prices across its Mac, iPhone and iPad ranges to account for the currency disparity. The euro has suffered a similar fate, now trading at near parity against the US dollar and showing signs of further weakness ahead.

Bottom-line: 실질금리와 금 간 역의 상관관계, 그리고 2011년 2월 이후 최고 수준인 실질금리와 당시 금 가격 1,400달러를 생각하면, 이제 작별을 고할 때가 된 것 같음. As the US 10-year real yield rises to the highest since 2011, its ascent has of course major cross-asset implications from equities to precious metals. By this measure, coupled with an expected aggressive move by the Fed, gold has more downside risk ahead. The inverse correlation between gold and 10-year TIPs, measured over a 40-day period, is significant. The much-cited relationship is a driver of dulled sentiment for bullion as traders position themselves ahead of the FOMC, wagering on a 75-bps hike come Wednesday, and let’s not forget the chatter about a 100-bps hike. To put things into perspective, yields on 10-year TIPs are at the highest since late Feb., 2011. Back then, gold was around $1,400. In the words of Billy Joel, maybe it’s time to say goodbye to gold as we drive down the Fed Boulevard.

Bottom-line: 스웨덴 중앙은행이 예상치인 75bp 보다 높은 100bp 금리인상을 하며 미국 중앙은행의 큰 폭 인상에 심리를 더 쏠리게 함. Mind the g-force. The Riksbank kicked off a big week for global tightening by raising its policy rate a full percentage point, to 1.75%. Sweden's central bank had been expected to hike by 75 basis points. The move is likely to further speculation the Fed will push through an outsized increase tomorrow. The krona strengthened.

Bottom-line: 주식시장과 달리 채권시장은 전세계적 긴축이 경기를 침체로 몰아갈 가능성을 높게 보는 것 같음. 선진국 중앙은행의 우리를 2004년에서 2007년 금리인상 시기로 돌려두겠지만, 2000년대 4%를 상회하는 때까진 가지 않을 것으로 봄. 반면, 확대 중인 예상 금리 역전폭 확대는 경기침체, 그리고 이후 중앙은행의 금리인하를 가시화하고 있음. Markets are on something of a knife’s edge this week waiting for the Fed and other central banks to deliver outsized rate hikes. Even as equities display resilience, the bond markets are clearly showing concern about the very strong chance that global policy tightening will lead to recessions around the globe. The average cash-rate across major developed economies is expected to surge another percentage point or so within a year to 2.5%, which will admittedly represent a slower pace than the 1.4 point increase over the past 12 months as policy makers woke up to non-transitory inflation. That would take us to the levels where the 2004-2007 global hiking wave kicked off, but traders don’t expect we will get above 4% the way that cycle and the 2000-era one did. Instead, the negative gap between the expected two-year policy average and the one-year keeps widening to signal central banks will have to cut, presumably as recessions move from potential to actual outcomes.

Bottom-line: 아시아 주식을 염가 할인에 구매하려는 투자자들은 여전히 창 밖을 서성이고 있음. 전일 미국 증시 반등. 그리고 달러 강세가 완화 될 경우 이들이 구매에 나설 수 있지만, 만일 미국 중앙은행의 금리인상 이후 침체 위협과 달러 강세가 재점화 될 경우 이들은 창 밖에 더 머물러 있을 것임. Bargain hunters don’t seem to be showing up for Asia stocks even as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falls to its lowest level in more than two years. A window may open up for them on Tuesday. US stocks rose, which can help lead their Asia counterparts higher. The Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index fell, which may help ease the downtrend in Asian currencies and the shares denominated in them. Otherwise, a coming Fed rate hike this week will probably be a bearish backdrop. It will raise the odds of a recession in the US and around the world. Higher yields will keep the dollar on its upward path. Then bargain hunters will then have to wait a while longer.

US stocks pushed higher in late trading, having fluctuated much of the day as traders geared up for another super-sized Fed hike.

Bottom-line: 예상을 뛰어넘은 물가와 페덱스의 경고가 말하는 현실과 달리 미국 기업의 이익 추정치는 역사점 고점에서 얼어붙어 있음. 이는 올해 -19% 하락한 지수, 긴축적 통화정책, 기업 이익률 하락 우려와 이익 추정치가 마주하기엔 아주 멀리있다고 모건스탠리와 골드만삭스가 공히 주장함. After a hotter-than-expected inflation print and FedEx Corp.’s shocking profit warning, top Wall Street strategists see mounting risks for US earnings and equity valuations. Both Morgan Stanley’s Michael J. Wilson and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David J. Kostin said headwinds to profitability are building, highlighting tighter monetary policy and pressure on company margins as key concerns. According to Wilson, who has been one of the most vocal bears on US stocks, “there is still a long way to go before reality is fairly priced.”. While analysts’ estimates for US company earnings have been moderating recently, they are still near record highs -- despite a 19% slump for the S&P 500 benchmark this year. Revisions “are often glacial,” amid dependence on corporate guidance and due to the relatively defensive nature of the US index, Morgan Stanley’s Wilson wrote, warning of volatility ahead.

Bottom-line: 여러 차례 금리인상에도 불구 잡히지 않는 물가로 인해 100bp의 금리인상론이 대두되면서 정책금리에 민감한 2년물 국채 수익률은 2007년 10월 이후 최고치, 10년물 국채 수익률은 2011년 이후 최고치를 기록함. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose above 3.50% for the first time since 2011 on Monday, with the bond market extending its bearish run ahead of another jumbo rate hike expected this week by the Federal Reserve to bring down inflation. The 10-year yield jumped as much as 6.6 basis points to 3.516%, breaking above a psychological level that held in mid-June. Still the main selling pressure in the Treasury market remained focused on the policy sensitive two-year note with the benchmark rising as much as 9 basis points to 3.96%, marking a fresh high since October 2007. Traders have wagered that another three-quarter point hike at this week’s Fed review is largely a done deal. Talk has emerged of a 100-basis point move to rein in price pressures that have shown little signs of easing even after the recent round of rate increases.