Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 미국의 최종 정책금리에 대한 투자자들의 예상이 후퇴하면서, 아시아 채권 투자자들 사이에서도 해당 지역 중앙은행들이 보다 완화적인 태세를 취할 것으로 예상하는 거래를 하고 있음. 특히 한국, 인도네시아, 필리핀과 같이 선진국의 통화정책에 영향을 크게 받는 곳에서 압박이 줄어들 것으로 평가되고 있음. 스왑 쪽을 살펴보면, 바트와 링깃 모두에서 6개월 내지 12개월 사이 인하 가능성을 내포하여 거래되고 있음. The pullback in bets on peak US interest rates is being mirrored by traders in emerging Asia, bolstering the investment case for bond bulls in the region. Rising economic uncertainty around the world and tightening financial conditions has seen traders bring forward forecasts for the peak in Federal Reserve interest rates, and also on the start of easing. The shift means Asian policy makers can also be less hawkish, especially as inflation appears to be slowing. The easing of hawkish Fed bets “will definitely take pressure off central banks that had their eyes on the Fed as a source of external policy pressure,” notably Indonesia, South Korea and the Philippines, said Galvin Chia, a strategist at NatWest Markets in Singapore. Swaps traders are dialing back bets on higher interest rates in Asia — providing a tailwind to regional bonds. Baht swaps are now pricing in only about 30 basis points of hikes over the next six months, down from about 65 basis points in late February. Similarly, ringgit contracts are pricing in around 10 basis points of cuts over a 12-month horizon, compared to a 15-basis point increase just last week.

US Producer Prices Unexpectedly Fall, Signaling Easing Pressures.

Bottom-line: 미국 내 중형 은행에 당초 대형 금융 기관에만 해당하던 규제를 적용할 것으로 보임. 이는 자본금 및 유동성, 위기 상황에서의 감내 능력 등을 보다 강도 높게 관리하겠다는 의도며, 향후 어떤 형태의 고객 자금 인출 요구에도 은행이 대응할 수 있는 것을 목표로 함. 이 규제는 1,000억 달러에서 2,500억 달러 자산 규모의 은행이 해당 될 것임. The Federal Reserve is considering changes to its rules governing midsize banks following the collapse of three lenders, a move that may entail extending restrictions currently applying only to the largest Wall Street firms, the Wall Street Journal reported. The Fed is reviewing tougher capital and liquidity requirements and measures to strengthen annual stress tests that assess banks’ ability to withstand a recession, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter it didn’t identify. Under the potential plans, firms between $100 billion to $250 billion in assets would face tougher rules. US regulators announced a slate of measures on Sunday, including the Federal Reserve’s creation of a new lending program for banks, following the demise of Silvergate Capital Corp. and SVB Financial Group. The measures are aimed at ensuring the banks can meet any customer requests to withdraw money and their announcement also coincided with the closure of New York’s Signature Bank by regulators.

Bottom-line: 소형 은행의 부실로 인해 인출 된 자금들이 파산하기엔 규모가 너무 큰 대형 은행으로 몰렸음. 뱅크 오브 아메리카는 몇일 만에 150억 달러의 신규 예금을 유치했고, 제이피모건과 씨티, 웰스파고로도 수십억 달러에 달하는 예금이 모인 것으로 추정 됨. 예금자 입장에서 소형 은행의 부실이 여타 대형 은행으로 확산될 것으로 생각했다면 발생하기 어려운 일임. Bank of America Corp. mopped up more than $15 billion in new deposits in a matter of days, emerging as one of the big winners after the collapse of three smaller banks dented confidence in the safety of regional lenders. The inflows offer a first glimpse into the deluge of deposits that made its way to the country’s largest banks as customers fearful of a spreading crisis sought refuge in the firms seen as too big to fail. The money flowing into the second-largest US bank was described by people with direct knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified as the information isn’t public. Other banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. also raked in billions in new deposits, though the figures have not been disclosed yet. 

Hold or Raise.

Now That the Fed Broke Something, Traders Overhaul Bets on Rates. 중앙은행의 금리인상이 무언가를 부수고야 끝났다는 에드 야데니의 말처럼, 투자자들은 그것을 본 다음에서야 금리인상이란 단어를 완전히 지웠음.

• 인플레이션 내일은 꽃 한송이를 사기 좋은 날이다. 다만, 꽃의 얼굴을 정하고 주변을 채워 줄 친구들을 골라 말랐지만 예쁜 꽃다발을 만들 줄 알아야 한다. 가스 가격으로 인해 꽃 가격이 꽤 올라있기 때문이다. 💐 (X) to 🌷 (O)

Bottom-line: White Knight HSBC Holdings acquires Silicon Valley Bank UK Limited for £1, according to a statement from the lender.

Bottom-line: 제롬 파월 의장이 금리인상 속도를 다시 올릴 신호를 준지 일주일도 되지 않았지만, 투자자들은 금리인상이 더는 없을 것으로 생각을 완전히 뒤집었음. 골드만삭스 전략가 또한 중앙은행이 금융 시스템의 충격이 우려됨에 따라 이번 달 통화정책회의에서 금리를 동결할 것으로 전망함. 미국 2년물 국채 금리는 1987년 10월 블랙먼데이 이후 3영업일 간 가장 큰 폭으로 하락 중임. Less than a week after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to a re-acceleration in the pace of interest-rate hikes, traders slammed it shut again amid the sudden eruption of financial strains at the US regional bank level. Economists led by Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said they no longer expect the Fed to deliver a rate increase next week, citing “recent stress in the banking system". Treasury two-year yields dropped 25 basis points to 4.34%, heading for their steepest three-day decline since October 1987, when the Black Monday equities rout stunned markets.

Kiss your rate hikes goodbye. 💔

Bottom-line: 실리콘밸리은행의 부실은 미국 중앙은행의 가파른 금리인상을 통해 드러나게 된 것이며, 야데니 리서치가 말하는 통화정책의 긴축 주기는 무언가를 부수고 금융위기를 가져오면서 끝난다에 이 은행이 해당 될 수 있음. 때문에 투자자들은 중앙은행의 긴축주기에 대해 생각을 다시 정리하고 시작했고, 호주와 뉴질랜드, 그리고 미국 2년물 국채 금리가 하락 중임. 반면 미국 10년물 국채 금리는 상승하며 장기와 단기 국채 간 금리 역전폭이 줄어듬. Two-year Treasury yields added to their sharp decline last week, falling more than 10 basis points amid bets for slower rate hikes from the Fed. Yields on the 10-year maturity rose slightly. Australian and New Zealand government bond yields tumbled as traders globally reassess the path of interest rate hikes and the economic cost the tightening cycle has taken already. The problems at SVB Financial Group’s bank were caused in large part by the fallout from higher US interest rates. “Tightening monetary cycles often end abruptly when ‘something breaks’ and a financial crisis is triggered,” Ed Yardeni, the founder of Yardeni Research, said in a note. “If the Silicon Valley Bank run is that something, it could mean tightening ends sooner and bond yields have peaked. We can’t say for sure that’s the case but can say the debacle should keep the tech sector mired in its rolling recession for longer".

There’s No Chance of the Fed Hiking 50 Basis Points This Month.

SVB Depositors Will Have Access to All Money Monday.