Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 중앙은행 인사들이 내년에도 정책을 강화할 수 있단 발언을 했음에도 불구, 시장은 전혀 동요하지 않음을 유로 달러 선물 변동성에서 알 수 있음. 5거래일 동안 18틱 범위에서 거래되며 2월 이후 최저 변동을 보였기 때문임. 이는 변동성을 다시 키웠던 9월 물가지표와 통화정책회의를 앞뒀던 때의 진정 상태와 유사한데, 중앙은행의 정책이 충분히 가격에 반영되었거나 변동성이 이 추세대로 더 낮아질 것을 기대한다면, 과거 형태를 한 번 되살펴 볼 가치가 있음. Monday saw both Williams and Bullard reiterate the need for restrictive policy throughout 2023, at this point these sorts of comments have relatively little impact on market pricing. Indeed, rate expectations are more stable than they have been for virtually all of this year, with EDM3 posting a 5-day trading range of just 18 ticks-- the lowest since early February. Granted, last week’s holiday trading conditions might have had something to do with that, as well as a dearth of important economic data. Still, it is worth noting that rate expectations also hit a lull in early September before CPI and the Fed announcement re-kindled volatility. That’s perhaps something to remember before concluding that the Fed is “fully priced” and that volatility across asset markets can now decline further on a trend basis.

🥶+🌨️

Docent: 중국의 바이러스 관련 정책 발표에 대해 그 반응이 사뭇 다른 이유를 도슨트 하고자 함. i) 접종: 노년층에 대한 백신 접종을 강조하는데, 특히 접종을 통해 본인의 건강은 스스로 책임에 있다고 넘기는 형태라 볼 수 있음. ii) 위독성: 변이 바이러스의 위험에 대해 경미함을 강조하면서 경제재개 시 대중이 바이러스에 대해 가질 공포를 축소시키려는 의도임. iii) 불편: 투자자들이 우려하는 지속적이고 강압적인 정부 태도의 변화를 추측케 불편을 최소화 할 것을 강조 했음. iv) 과도한 조치: 중앙정부의 승인이 필요하며, 대중이 원하는 합리적 범위에서의 봉쇄를 기간과 범위를 제한해서 하도록 함. 이러한 약간의 어조 변화에 투자자들은 환영하고 있음. Let me unpack that China Covid press briefing. Vaccinations: There was a focus on the vaccination of the elderly. This may seem obvious but it’s one of the major obstacles to China’s reopening. While there was nothing about a vaccine mandate, we heard strong words urging older residents to take responsibility for their own health. Virulence: One spokesperson detailed the science showing omicron and its sub-variants aren’t as dangerous. Lowering the population’s fear of the virus is an important step toward a panic-free reopening. There was also a bit of self-congratulatory talk around China’s low death rate -- claiming victory over the pandemic also plays into how Beijing will clear the path to move on. Inconvenience: Health officials said it was paramount to minimize the impact caused by the Covid outbreak. This is somewhat of a reiteration but to investors it suggests the government is concerned about the anxiety caused by its pandemic response. Excessive measures: The spokespeople said some local governments are taking lockdowns too far, imposing measures without prior approval from the central government. Restrictions should be limited in scale and length, and local authorities must respond quickly to “reasonable” requests from residents. If not they will be named and shamed. The key to tracking shifts in China’s Covid Zero policy will come from official tone, language and signaling -- reading the tea leaves might be a high-risk bet but investors seem happy with what they got today.

Bottom-line: 스페인 물가가 전년 대비 6.6% 상승한 것으로 발표되며 전월 7.3% 상승과 예상치 7.1% 상승을 모두 하회함. 의류를 제외 한 전기료, 유가 하락에 기인함. 다만, 정책 입안자 입장이서는 변동성이 큰 에너지 및 식품을 제외 한 핵심 물가지표는 상승해 여전히 경계를 해야 한다고 함. Spanish inflation eased for a fourth month and by more than expected, reinforcing expectations for a wider slowdown in European prices and offering some comfort to the government whose aid measures have brought record budget spending. Consumer prices advanced by 6.6% from a year ago in November, down from the previous month’s 7.3% advance, the statistics institute said Tuesday. That’s below the 7.1% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The slowdown was driven by declines in electricity and fuel costs and an only moderate rise in clothing. A gauge of underlying prices, however, which excludes volatile items like energy and food, ticked up to 6.3%. Such measures may take on more significance even as headline inflation rates across the region start to ease, according to Vice President Luis de Guindos.

Bottom-line: 중국 공식 대변인은 대중의 합리적인 바이러스 억제 정책 요구에 대응해야 한다면서, 과도한 바이러스 억제 정책을 지양하고, 바이러스 확산에 따른 다수의 불편을 줄이도록 하는 방향을 지시함. China’s local officials must respond to and resolve “reasonable” Covid requests from residents in a timely manner, Mi Feng, spokesman for the National Health Commission, says at a briefing. Local officials must keep avoiding excessive Covid curbs. China must reduce inconvenience caused by the Covid outbreak among public.

Bottom-line: 토마스 바킨은 존 윌리엄스, 제임스 블라드에 이어 중앙은행이 금리인상 폭을 낮추는데 동의하지만, 더 오랜 기간에 걸쳐 예상했던 것보다 높은 최종 정책금리를 유지할 수 있다는 주장에 합류함. 이는 인플레이션 수준이 높은 상태로 유지되면서 불과 몇달 전에 생각했던 예상 금리경로를 더 높여야한다 생각이 들 정도며, 다른 중앙은행 인사들이 인플레이션이 정책금리를 더 높은 수준에 이르게 한다거나, 금융시장이 중앙은행의 추가 금리인상 필요성을 간과하고 있단 발언과 상통함. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he favored slowing the pace of interest rate hikes in recognition of past aggressive moves, while adding that the peak of rates may need to be held for longer at potentially higher levels to dampen inflation. “I’m very supportive of a path that is slower, probably longer and potentially higher than where we were before,” Barkin said in an interview Monday with Kathleen Hays on Bloomberg Television. He added that he expects peak rates “certainly” to be higher than he thought a couple months ago. Fed officials have signaled they plan to raise their benchmark rate by 50 basis points at their final meeting of the year on Dec. 13-14, after four successive 75 basis-point hikes. But policy makers could also raise their forecasts for how high interest rates will eventually go when they update their economic projections during the meeting in the face of persistently high inflation. Barkin is the latest Fed official to endorse additional tightening to reduce inflation near a 40-year high. New York Fed President John Williams said earlier Monday that higher inflation would call for a “modestly higher path for policy” and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard separately said financial markets were “underpricing” the likelihood that the Fed would need to be more aggressive.

... 🤦🏻‍♂️

10m

🍽️ + 🙏🏻 + ⚽️

Bottom-line: 테슬라 모델 Y는 올해 가장 많이 판매 된 자동차 모델 5위 안에 들었으며, 순위에서 유일한 전기차임. 올해 9개월 간 50만대를 판매했지만, 당신이 어느 국가에 거주하는지에 따라 이 차를 소유하는데 드는 비용은 막대한 차이를 보였음. 중국의 경우 최종 가격 인하를 기준할 때 미국 판매가의 절반을 가까스로 넘을 정도로 저렴하지만, 싱가폴은 세계에서 가장 비싼 값을 줘야 모델 Y를 구매할 수 있음. 심지어 이 가격은 부대 비용을 제외했으며, 이를 포함할 경우 판매가의 두 배가 될 수도 있음. 아래 차트는 테슬라 모델 Y의 공식 홈페이지 최저 가격을 기준해서 비교한 내용임. Tesla Inc.’s Model Y has been a smash-hit worldwide -- on track to rank among the top five best-selling models this year and the only electric car to make the cut. More than 500,000 were snapped up in the first nine months, but depending on which country you live in, you may be forking out vastly different sums. Mainland China is the world’s cheapest place to buy a Model Y. After last month’s price cuts, the Model Y starts at 288,900 yuan ($40,500), slightly over half the US retail price. At the other end of the spectrum, Singapore is the world’s most expensive place to own a Tesla: getting the four-door SUV in the island state will set you back a hefty S$142,471 ($103,800) -- and that’s before excise and registration duties, which can double the overall price tag. Bloomberg compiled the most and least expensive places to buy a Model Y, based on the starting cash price shown on Tesla’s official website for each country and region.

사견이나, 출산율 관련해... 어린이집/유치원 대기, 사립 어린이집/유치원 광속의 클릭 전쟁, 2시에서 4시 사이 이후 케어 수단 부재 등... 🤦🏻‍♂️ 낳아 키우는 과정에 대한 인프라 없이는 공허 한 말이군요. 🥵

Bottom-line: 한국은행 총재는 일본과 같이 고령화 사회에 경제를 부양하는 방법으로 재정정책이나 통화정책을 사용해선 안된다고 주장함. 성장이 둔화될 때 재정정책을 사용해 경기를 부양하고, 물가가 낮을 때 통화정책을 써 인플레이션을 만들자는 쉬운 말들은 모두 실패했다면서 구조적 변화를 이뤄야 한다고 함. 이를 위해 출산율이 높아질 수 있는 환경을 만들어야 하며, 여성의 노동 참여율을 높이고, 외국인 근로자를 적극 활용하는 등 고통이 수반되더라도 구조적인 변화를 시작해야 한다고 함. South Korea should avoid following Japan’s lead of using fiscal and monetary stimulus to combat the challenges of an aging economy, central bank Governor Rhee Chang-yong said, urging reforms instead to boost fertility. Aging is a rising concern in the developed world and Korea is among the hardest-hit together with Japan. South Korea shattered its own record for the world’s lowest fertility rate last year, adding to long-term pressure on policy makers to keep interest rates low and fiscal stimulus ample to boost growth. “It’s easier to say ‘let’s use the fiscal policy to stimulate the economy if growth is going down, let’s use the loose monetary policy to increase the inflation rate,” Rhee said in an interview. “It all failed.”. Korea should instead embark on long-delayed structural reforms, even though they may be painful, while increasing female labor participation, improving the education system and utilizing foreign workers more effectively, the Bank of Korea governor said Friday.

Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 지속적인 긴축에도 불구하고 11월은 주식과 채권 모두 강세를 보였음. 이번 달 마지막 주에 12월 주요 지표 중 고용이 금요일에 발표되기 때문에 월말을 기준하는 수요일에 포트폴리오를 재조정 하려는 욕구가 커질 수 있음. 뿐만 아니라 12월에 발표되는 고용과 인플레이션 지표가 예상을 상회할 경우 올해의 마지막 통화정책회의에서 시장의 기대와 다른 결말이 나올 수 있으므로, 현재까지 거둔 이익을 실현하고자 하는 유혹도 있을 것임. November is proving to be a very buoyant month for assets of all stripes, with bonds and equities rallying into the teeth of a barrage of continued global central bank tightening. The strong gains could set up a spicy final week, given the month-end on Wednesday could motivate plenty of position squaring and rebalancing before the first of December’s three major event risks lands on Friday in non-farm payrolls. The temptation could be there for some to take profits off the table in case robust jobs and inflation numbers create the potential for surprises at the final Fed meeting of the year.

투자은행들이 북아시아를 투자의 중점에 두는 가운데, 골드만삭스처럼 미국에 대한 전망을 'Paradise Lost'로 표현하는 것도 함께 살펴보면 도움이 될 것입니다.