Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 경제 관련 전문가와 중앙은행 인사들이 경기침체가 올 것인지, 그렇다면 언제가 될지에 논쟁 중이지만, 펀드 매니저들을 그 답을 기달 생각이 없어보임. 조사분석 자료에 따르면 재량에 의해 펀드를 운용하는 매니저들은 경기에 보다 덜 민감한 쪽의 주식으로 비중을 늘리고 있으며, 경기에 민감한 주식의 비중이 헤지펀드의 경우 2012년 이후 최저, 공모펀드의 경우 2008년 이후 최저에 근접했음. 작년 10월 저점 이후 주식시장의 가치가 5조 달러 이상 증가했음에도 이런 비관적 포지션은 2009년과 유사한 형태의 침체에 대비하고 있는 것으로 보임. 반면, 재량에 의하지 않고 기계적이고 정해진 원칙에 따라 투자하는 알고리즘 펀드의 경우 지속적으로 주식 비중을 확대하고 있음. 도이치뱅크의 자료에 따르면, 알고리즘 펀드는 통계 이후 중립 수준까지 주식을 확대한 반면, 재량적 투자자는 1년래 최저치로 주식을 줄였음. As Wall Street economists and central bankers debate if and when the US economy will slip into a recession, big money managers aren’t waiting to find out. Increasingly, professional stock pickers are shifting money out of economically sensitive shares like banks while parking it in stocks seen as resilient during economic downturns, such as utilities and consumer staples. Hedge funds that make both bullish and bearish wagers have cut their cyclical holdings versus defensive equities to the lowest level since at least 2012, data compiled by Bank of America Corp. show. For long-only managers, their relative exposure to cyclical companies — whose fortunes hinge on the ebbs and flows of the business cycle — is near the lowest level since 2008. It all highlights growing pessimism in the world of active investing, despite a rally that has added $5 trillion in equity values since the market’s October low. All told, active stock pickers are “positioned for a 2009-style recession,” BofA strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a note. Notably, the caution among stock pickers contrasts with computer-driven strategies that allocate assets based on chart signals. Thanks to steady gains and a drop in market volatility, systematic money managers such as trend followers and volatility-target funds have boosted their equity holdings in recent months. The diverging stance is best illustrated by Deutsche Bank AG’s model on investor positioning. According to the firm, quant funds have continued to snap up stocks, while exposure from discretionary investors has fallen to the bottom of its one-year range.

Bottom-line: 헤지펀드 자금들이 달러에 대한 약세 베팅을 강화하고 있음. 달러 지수는 지난 해 중앙은행이 금리인상을 시작한 이후의 상승분을 거의 반납했음. 상품선물거래위원회 공시에 따르면, 이번 주에도 달러에 대한 순매도 포지션 7만 계약을 추가했는데, 누적 순매도 포지션은 2021년 6월 이후 최고치임. 미국 중앙은행이 이번 통화정책회의에서 금리인상을 결정할 것이 명확해보이지만, 올해 연말 금리인하 전까지 더 이상 금리인상은 없을 것으로 선물시장에 반영하고 있음. 반면, 유럽 중앙은행과 영국 중앙은행은 강경한 통화정책으로 금리를 지속 인상할 것으로 예상되면서 유로화나 파운드화가 추가로 강세를 보일 수 있기 때문에 달러에 대한 매도 포지션이 쌓이고 있는 것임. Investors are piling into bets against the US dollar as this week’s expected Federal Reserve interest-rate hike is likely to bring the steepest tightening cycle in a generation to a halt. Hedge funds and other large speculators boosted their net bearish position on the greenback against major peers to more than 70,000 contracts as of April 25, the most since June 2021, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The currency is set to erase all of the gains posted since the Fed started raising the cash rate last March, according to Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar against major trading partners. The Fed is seen as almost certain to hike its rate by a quarter point this week, but then swaps traders are pricing for it to hold policy before turning toward lowering the benchmark by year’s end. With the European Central Bank and the Bank of England expected to be more aggressive in coming months, speculators are focusing on the potential that the euro and the pound will extend gains that have made them among the three best performers this year across major developed currencies.

Bottom-line: 헤지펀드들 자금들이 달러에 대한 약세 베팅을 강화하고 있음. 달러 지수는 지난 해 중앙은행이 금리인상을 시작한 이후의 상승분을 거의 반납했음. 상품선물거래위원회 공시에 따르면, 달러에 대한 순매도 계약이 현재 7만 계약에 이르는데, 이는 2021년 6월 이후 최고치임. 미국 중앙은행이 이번 통화정책회의에서 금리인상을 결정할 것이 명확해보이지만 올해 연말 금리인하 전까지 더 이상 금리인상은 없을 것으로 선물시장에 반영하고 있음. 반면, 유럽 중앙은행과 영국 중앙은행은 강경한 통화정책으로 금리를 지속 인상할 것으로 예상되면서 유로화나 파운드화가 추가로 강세를 보일 수 있기 때문에 달러에 대한 매도 포지션이 쌓이고 있는 것임. Investors are piling into bets against the US dollar as this week’s expected Federal Reserve interest-rate hike is likely to bring the steepest tightening cycle in a generation to a halt. Hedge funds and other large speculators boosted their net bearish position on the greenback against major peers to more than 70,000 contracts as of April 25, the most since June 2021, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The currency is set to erase all of the gains posted since the Fed started raising the cash rate last March, according to Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar against major trading partners. The Fed is seen as almost certain to hike its rate by a quarter point this week, but then swaps traders are pricing for it to hold policy before turning toward lowering the benchmark by year’s end. With the European Central Bank and the Bank of England expected to be more aggressive in coming months, speculators are focusing on the potential that the euro and the pound will extend gains that have made them among the three best performers this year across major developed currencies.

Mega-cap Earnings. 4/26: Alphabet and Microsoft kicked off the Big Tech earnings season on a positive note as earnings exceeding expectations. 4/27: Meta added to Big Tech's good news. Shares surged 10% in late trading as its outlook beat and first-quarter sales returned to growth. 4/28: Amazon's results beat and its quarterly outlook range topped estimates. Revenue outperformed for online and physical stores and the key cloud-computing unit, AWS.

Bottom-line: Clouds Clearing. Amazon's results beat and its quarterly outlook range topped estimates, sending shares up more than 7% in late trading. Revenue outperformed for online and physical stores and the key cloud-computing unit, AWS.

The quarter-over-quarter percentage changes of the core components to GDP.

Bottom-line: 재고와 달리 소비자 소비 항목의 경우 2021년 2분기 이후 경제성장률을 끌어올리는데 가장 큰 기여를 했음. The weaker-than-expected headline GDP masks the underlying strength of the economy as consumers hold up well. Consumption contributed 2.5 ppts to the GDP, the biggest since the second quarter of 2021.

Bottom-line: 경제성장률의 경우 재고 물량이 끌어내린 것을 제외하고 생각한다면, 우리가 명목적으로 보는 수치보다 더 나은 성장률이라 판단할 수 있음. Underneath the hood of the GDP report, things are a lot more robust than they first appear. Inventories took off 2.26 percentage points from the growth rate. The stockpile of unsold goods grew at a much smaller pace last quarter than it did in the previous one. And arithmetically, that walloped the growth figure. Underlying GDP is stronger when you discount that.

Bottom-line: 국채 시장의 반응을 보면, 부진한 경제성장률에도 불구하고 중앙은행이 고용과 물가와 관련해 해야 할일이 아직 남았다고 판단하는 것으로 보임. It appears Treasuries are looking at that jobless claims number and figuring that it reinforces a picture of labor-market tightness that the Fed will need to work against more. Setting aside, perhaps, the weaker growth figure we got in the GDP release.

Much weaker growth than anticipated, at 1.1% annualized. The inflation gauge is not good, at 4% versus the 3.7% forecast.