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π US MACRO WEEK AHEAD β Oct 5β9
A relatively light week on the US calendar, but there are a few events that could create meaningful volatility across Gold, USD and US indices.
π₯ MONDAY
β’ 13:45 GMT β S&P Global Services PMI
β’ 14:00 GMT β ISM Services PMI π₯π₯π₯
β’ 14:00 GMT β ISM Services Prices / Employment / New Orders
π₯ TUESDAY
β’ 12:30 GMT β US Trade Balance π₯π₯
β’ 14:45 GMT β Fedβs Bowman Speaks
β’ 15:30 GMT β Atlanta Fed GDPNow
β’ 20:30 GMT β API Weekly Crude Oil Inventories π₯π₯
π₯ WEDNESDAY
β’ 14:30 GMT β US Crude Oil Inventories π₯π₯
β’ 15:00 GMT β NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations π₯π₯
β’ 17:00 GMT β US 10-Year Note Auction
β’ 18:00 GMT β FOMC Meeting Minutes π₯π₯π₯
π₯ THURSDAY
β’ 12:30 GMT β Initial Jobless Claims π₯π₯
β’ 14:00 GMT β Wholesale Inventories
β’ 17:00 GMT β US 30-Year Bond Auction
π₯ FRIDAY
β’ 14:00 GMT β Michigan Consumer Sentiment + Inflation Expectations π₯π₯π₯
β’ 16:00 GMT β WASDE Report
β’ 19:30 GMT β CFTC Positioning
β’ 20:00 GMT β Fedβs Collins Speaks
β’
π― What matters most
Gold: ISM Services β inflation expectations β yields β USD, followed by FOMC Minutes and Michigan inflation expectations.
USD: Focus on the Fed communication, services data and the direction of US yields.
Nasdaq / US indices: The combination of services activity, yields and Fed expectations remains key.
β
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Transparency as always. I show my losses as well as the big wins.
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TamΓ‘s
π¨ Trump: "Let's not send out the diesel."
One sentence. 7% diesel spike.
European diesel futures jumped as much as 7% Tuesday after Trump told his administration to consider halting US diesel exports. Analysts call a full ban "catastrophic" for global fuel supply.
Why it matters:
πΉ US is one of the world's largest diesel exporters β Europe leans on it hard
πΉ A ban = instant supply shock, not a gradual one
πΉ Energy prices bleed into inflation, inflation bleeds into Fed policy, Fed policy bleeds into gold and the dollar
We're already sitting on Hormuz tensions and surging oil. Add a US export ban to the mix and this stops being a regional story β it's a global inflation story.
π― Trade fundamentals, ignore the noise.
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