Epic Options

RIP Charlie Munger. Legend.

ADX indicator explained #ADX

🧨 Notable Upcoming Earnings ⚡Monday #TCOM (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 7.55% Sector: Consumer Cyclical #ZM (afterhours) Implied Move: +/- 7.87% Sector: Communication Services ⚡Tuesday #IQ (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 7.95% Sector: Communication Services #BIDU (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 5.62% Sector: Communication Services #KSS (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 10.80% Sector: Consumer Cyclical #BBY (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 6.07% Sector: Consumer Cyclical #LOW (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 3.78% Sector: Consumer Cyclical #DKS (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 8.03% Sector: Consumer Cyclical #NVDA (afterhours) Implied Move: +/- 6.67% Sector: Technology #HPQ (afterhours) Implied Move: +/- 5.04% Sector: Technology #JWN (afterhours) Implied Move: +/- 11.55% Sector: Consumer Cyclical #ADSK (afterhours) Implied Move: +/- 5.61% Sector: Consumer Cyclical ⚡Wednesday #DE (premarket) Implied Move: +/- 4.13% Sector: Industrials

While CPI inflation is at 3.2%, inflation is much higher in many basic necessities: 1. Car Insurance Inflation: 19.2% 2. Car Repair Inflation: 9.6% 3. Transportation Inflation: 9.2% 4. Rent Inflation: 7.2% 5. Homeowner Inflation: 6.8% 6. Food Away From Home Inflation: 5.4% 7. Cereals & Bakery Products Inflation: 4.2% While headline inflation is down from its highs, many basic necessities are still seeing 5%+ inflation. It's also worth noting that we do NOT have deflation, we have disinflation. While the rate of inflation is DOWN, prices are still RISING. Affordability is still getting worse.

🚨 OPEX tomorrow! $2.4T in options expiring , as #SPX hovers around 4500. روز جمعه ۱۷ نوامبر ۲۰۲۳ زمان انقضای حدود ۲.۴ تریلیون دلار قرارداد آپشن است و بازار بشدت تحت تاثیر این موضوع خواهد بود.

How Inflation Affects Company Cash Flows

Look for Volume Dry-ups Near the Lows of a Price Patterns . در تحلیل تکنیکال چارت‌های قیمت، زمانیکه حجم معاملات در نزدیکی کف الگوی قیمتی کم شود، به عنوان یک نشانه مثبت شناخته می‌شود. این نشانه می تواند بیانگر آن باشد که فشار فروش و عرضه به بازار کاهش یافته است. این موضوع نشان می‌دهد که قیمت سهام ممکن است در حال فشرده شدن برای رشد سریع قیمت باشد.

#WE یکی از شرکت هایی که طی سال های اخیر وار بازار شد و تحت تاثیر هیجانات بازار قیمت سهامش به ۶۰۰ دلار هم رسیده بود، امروز برای ورشکستگی اقدام کرد.

CANADA GDP TRACKING BACK-TO-BACK CONTRACTIONS IN 2Q AND 3Q Canada in recession با ثبت رشد اقتصادی منفی برای دومین بار در سال جاری، اقتصاد کانادا رسماً وارد رکود شد.

یکی از شیوه های بررسی روند عمومی بازار و تشخیص واقعی بودن تغییر روند، بررسی آماری وضعیت تمام سهام حاضر در بازار است. مثلا اگر روند قیمت شاخص صعودی باشد ولی تنها تعداد بسیار کمی از سهام عملا وارد روند صعودی شده باشند و این صعود احتمالا بدلیل عدم حمایت کلیت بازار، موقتی خواهد بود. برای بررسی وضعیت آماری همه سهام تشکیل دهنده شاخص بازار، شاخص های مختلفی طراحی شده که سه تا از این شاخص ها در زیر معرفی شده اند: MMTW: Percent of Stocks Above 20-Day Average MMFI: Percent of Stocks Above 50-Day Average MMTH: Percent of Stocks Above 200-Day Average طبیعیست مادامیکه تنها درصد بسیار کمی از سهام بالای مووینگ ۲۰ یا ۵۰ باشند یا روند این دو شاخص صعودی نشده باشد، هر صعودی با فشار فروش مواجه خواهد شد. می توان برای این شاخص ها محدوده های oversold و overbought نیز متناسب با گذشته آنها در نظر گرفت. سه شاخص زیر هم معادل شاخص های پیش گفته هستند: S5TW: S&P500 Stocks Above 20-Day Average S5FI: S&P500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average S5TH: S&P500 Stocks Above 200-Day Average #breadth indicators #MMTW #MMTI #MMTH @EpicOptions

Most anticipated earnings releases this week

#gold طلا از ۲۰۰۰ دلار عبور کرد

Amazon #AMZN 3Q Summary Tough to benchmark on the back of MSFT GOOGL META moves already in the stock.. Forward revenue guide, AWS rev are disappointing but the profit surprises might be enough to hold these initial gains post market. Miss on cash generation also stands out.

🔥 Understanding Wall Street: 1/ Earnings matter: The best predictor of a stock price is the trend in next year’s earnings estimates. Negative earnings revisions are death to a growth stock like #TSLA. 2/ The most important metrics within earnings are unit volumes, pricing, and gross margins. If volumes and prices are falling, earnings will fall and the stock will drop. When a company beats ests because of a lower tax rate or one-time non-operating item, WS will ignore the beat. 3/ P/Es are a function of future growth rates and long-term interest rates. If a CEO grows suddenly cautious about future unit or rev growth, the P/E is likely to get whacked. 4/ Increase in TAM is the most effective way to boost a stock price. Cutting price is the quickest way to reduce a stock price since with most products demand elasticities are low and price cuts signal orders are less than production. 5/ The set up into earnings matters. If estimates and expectations are rising into earnings, the odds of a fall after earnings is high (e.g. #GOOG). The converse is also true. Buy stocks where expectations are terrible. 6/ High P/E stocks get crushed with a slight miss much more than low P/E stocks. The term “priced for perfection” applies to high P/E stocks with sky-high expectations. 7/ Next quarter guidance vs expectations matters far more than whether a company beats in the current quarter. 8/ When int rates rise, high P/E names get crushed far more than low P/E stocks. That is because high P/E names are “high duration” names where most of the value is in the tail (several years out) which get crushed more severely when discounting by a higher rate. 9/ P/Es are the discounted cash flow of all future earnings discounted at a cost of equity, divided by next year’s earnings. Discounted cash flow is a better measure of value but most investors use P/Es relative to growth as a shorthand to estimate value. A P/E/G of 2.0x is normal. 10/ Always try to identify the one metric that WS is focused on and get that right. #GOOG revs and earnings beat expectations on all metrics except one - Cloud rev growth - and #GOOG got crushed. Source: Gary Black

تم اصلی سرمایه گذاری در دهه های پیشین The key investment theme of each decade, since 1950

Signs we are nearing a market top & market bottom نشانه های پایان یافتن روند صعودی یا نزولی بازار

#earnings for the week of October 23, 2023 #AMZN #MSFT #META #GOOGL #BA #ENPH #KO #VZ #CLF #INTC #XOM #SNAP #RCL #IBM #GE #F #RTX #HSY #V #UPS #CMG #NOW #DXCM #MMM #ALGN #ABBV #TDOC #MO #LUV #KLAC #CVX #TMO #NEE #ADM #SKX #MTDR #SPOT #NOC #VLO #ORLY #CNC #AMT #MRK #X #NEM #BMY #MA #BKR #CMCSA #CHTR

The EV industry value chain.

طلا به ۱۹۷۴ دلار رسید