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Channel Posts
Believe it or not, still looks like calls.
I know it looks stupid, but I ran the math after ODing on protein powder. Around 70% chance it continues to go up, which is regardedly higher than my previous memepost (a whole whooping 4%). https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1udiyb9/i_ran_the_math_believe_it_or_not_calls/SummaryGreen lines are short leverage that's underwater. It works on btc ok?Daily signal still shows room to run.I know war, inflation and bla bla. Nothing will happen (yet), it's summer. Standing by my decission that if anything does blow up it's around late Aug-Oct. Best I can do. Weekly signals are messy.
Submitted July 12, 2026 at 07:05PM by TimelyBodybuilder121
via reddit https://ift.tt/lkwvCUY
| 2 | Ruined my portfolio with SPCX but all I need are my puts to 20x next week and Iām gucci āļø
https://ift.tt/UpQ7PHd
Submitted July 12, 2026 at 07:09PM by WhoRuleTheWorld
via reddit https://ift.tt/7qpGPeX | 24 |
| 3 | You damn degenerates, leave some cash on the sidelines
https://ift.tt/LCiMw8g
Submitted July 12, 2026 at 06:07PM by I_killed_the_kraken
via reddit https://ift.tt/AX2RQLS | 37 |
| 4 | South Carolina Senator pass away
https://ift.tt/FAzj5sx
Submitted July 12, 2026 at 10:14AM by Due-Bid6242
via reddit https://ift.tt/XcnsTrR | 85 |
| 5 | Its that time of month again!
https://ift.tt/P6oRjhJ
Submitted July 12, 2026 at 09:27AM by WaterAdventurous6718
via reddit https://ift.tt/46Tv7Ub | 86 |
| 6 | Making the Band, Iran edition
https://ift.tt/2W48d7k
Submitted July 12, 2026 at 09:28AM by Past-Track-9976
via reddit https://ift.tt/DYsCX7z | 66 |
| 7 | The Boy Who Cried Strait
https://ift.tt/hL6tOCX
Submitted July 12, 2026 at 07:01AM by Anhedonia_Achiever
via reddit https://ift.tt/nbV8xpH | 61 |
| 8 | Time to pay the toll... again!
https://ift.tt/MismCV6
Submitted July 12, 2026 at 07:09AM by kineticstar
via reddit https://ift.tt/bSM5Nmo | 47 |
| 9 | Why Gemini canāt compete
Google is a mature company who answers to investors and has a customer base used to 100% uptime.It canāt buy a ton of AI compute without caring about the return on investment. Anthropic and OpenAI can, and they are just burning away tens of billions of dollars to be at the frontier.The biggest signs of this is inside Google, thereās a ton of politicking about who gets data center resources, and a lot of high profile Gemini/DeepMind members left due to an inability to secure enough chips for their team.Gemini is used everywhere in Googleās legacy services and internally (190k employees). That means if they secure a 1 Gigawatt AI data center, very likely 80% of it goes to just keeping the lights on, and only 20% of it goes to frontier AI training and inference for external customers. Whereas OpenAI and Anthropic can throw 100% of their data center resources at solving a single goal.So when these two AI labs spend as much on AI data centers as Google does, they actually have more usable compute for frontier research. Google could outspend to have both enough to power legacy services, and power frontier competition, but are constrained for two reasons: chip quotas, and investorās demand for ROI. Chip companies will not allocate a ton more to Google. The distribution to each AI lab is pretty even, so whoever has the least legacy burden is going to win, since they all get roughly the same number of chips. So the long term top three according to this mental model would be OpenAI, Anthropic, and Grok, and thatās what weāre starting to see emerge as a pattern.Google had a head start due to having more data and talent, but the actual bottleneck is compute, and they donāt have enough.
Submitted July 12, 2026 at 05:03AM by VivianRichGF
via reddit https://ift.tt/BrbgXJy | 55 |
| 10 | Delulu Part 2 - 7/12 Key Notes - Squeeze Passed or Still on the Table? The Battle for $150 or $135 the new floor
This is purely about next week's volatility and any remaining risk of squeeze in the near term before August. Cleaner/updated take on this post.Key Notes:Anomalous Friday - Stock held the tightest range since IPO, right under $150, which was the price advertised whereĀ shorts lose money. As once advertised at 196 million shares - but we won't know until the next Finra report, unless a squeeze manifests before then. There was only a little over 12K $150 calls, so it seems more likely to be protecting the shorts than the calls but it could be both. Now another interesting point is the Friday was the day with the highest # of shorts. Not 10 point drop Tuesday with the Nasdaq 100 inclusion, but Friday...https://preview.redd.it/yqo3t9gcmpch1.png?width=1020&format=png&auto=webp&s=a40131a5092b8fb905482578a4b02fe98c60d2a2This tight of a range doesn't happen. Again, this suggests to me it was defense of $150 that successfully held.https://preview.redd.it/mmr0lufempch1.png?width=913&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab964ed8660a09d27e2215504a96d9b8306e8834After the initial drop, the stock was only allowed to hit $149.75 before being kept a dollar away from $150. I watch this stock every day. This was not normal.Borrowable Shares - No matter what data you have access to, you can logically conclude that the # of borrowable shares has gone down overall. Index buys, calls, already held shorts, etc. Now maybe Friday was the day that if a short was going to happen it could have happened, but there is still contention. July 12th is when margin trading restrictions end. Meaning come Monday morning - at least some retail will have access to margin trade SpaceX. Whether its to short or buy, everyone's fighting over the same pool of shares. Which means there will be less of them.The Timing of the Fall and IPO Flipper Restriction's Unlock - Something like 80 million shares give or take get released from IPO flipper restrictions on Monday (Fidelity already released, so it's the remaining brokers, assuming 100 mil was given to retail and Fidelity got 20% which was released after 15 days). Logically, with the price being $145 and the narrative of the additional shares coming in August, this would logically induce a significant # of people to take profits and run. Further benefiting the shorts and dropping the price due to the fear of the falling price and the pending August unlocks. Sure, plenty may hold and the dip may only be temporary, but I wouldn't be surprised if plenty want to GTFO as soon as the market opens. Now you could argue that Monday is why there was so much short activity on Friday, but why stop the price from reaching $150. Would the shorts make more money the higher price they continue to short the stock at? IMO - there was clear defensive play from letting the price get to $150 again. Whatever the reason, protect the calls, protect the shorts, kill momentum, stop the squeeze, encourage sell off on Monday? Don't know, but it was very odd behavior for a stock I watch obsessively.Starship Launch - If there is enough excitement around the starship launch and even more so if it's successful, the stock could climb. If it climbs higher than $150 again, and limits the time for shorts to recover, this could add additional pressure on shorts that have not closed.CTB - The cost to borrow shares has significantly increased from theĀ 6th to the 10th. Some reports show nearly double the rate. Other notes suggest some borrows were at 10x+ the rate.https://preview.redd.it/9w27434gmpch1.png?width=1041&format=png&auto=webp&s=457af1bb551280cc3833621e6d0c5f569b46afd6As you can see this states short supply increased, but that just means some shares were returned. Friday's CTB was still nearly double Monday's.July 15th - Shorts data starts accumulating, due by Friday. Published by the week of the 19th. The truth will be revealed on how badly the stock was shorted.What does this all mean? To me it suggestsā¦ | 49 |
| 11 | GF broke up with me. Least I have gains?
https://ift.tt/fsijkoT
Submitted July 12, 2026 at 03:44AM by ZaraBloom418
via reddit https://ift.tt/HcwIGt9 | 37 |
| 12 | Strait of Hormuz Season
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Submitted July 12, 2026 at 02:40AM by N3RD_01
via reddit https://ift.tt/w2pePq0 | 44 |
| 13 | Praise be to Allah
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Submitted July 12, 2026 at 03:22AM by mmaisumm
via reddit https://ift.tt/oPHzYyv | 44 |
| 14 | Elon and Sam on Monday Morning
https://ift.tt/OH3bDkY
Submitted July 12, 2026 at 01:44AM by Due-Bid6242
via reddit https://ift.tt/qs6dJTX | 43 |
| 15 | Uh oh boys strait closed again
https://ift.tt/DA5t1ir
Submitted July 12, 2026 at 02:03AM by 20165
via reddit https://ift.tt/hde6g37 | 48 |
| 16 | 'Trump threatens to 'decimate' Iran if it tries to kill him, as Treasury sanctions alleged Iranian financier'
https://ift.tt/UaCf0KV
Submitted July 12, 2026 at 02:18AM by Zealousideal_Hat7634
via reddit https://ift.tt/vcgjYwA | 48 |
| 17 | If June CPI comes in hotter than expected, is the better trade Treasuries or SPY/QQQ puts?
Maybe Iām overthinking this, so poke holes in it.
The thinking seems to be that CPI should be okay because gas came down during June from the highs we saw in May.I get that.
But isnāt everyone focusing on one piece of the puzzle?
Gas did fall month-over-month, but compared to last june, people were still paying a lot more at the pump for most of the month.Then I started thinking about everything else that happened in June.-World Cup started June 11 (hotels, Airbnbs, restaurants, rideshares, flights, fan events, etc.)
-Summer travel season kicked off.
-Airlines seem more willing to cut capacity than cut prices.
-Beef still feels pricey.
-Coffee hasnāt exactly gotten cheaper.
My grocery bill definitely doesnāt feel like inflation is over.
It felt like half the country had their AC running nonstop.
Netflix, AT&T, and it seems like every subscription finds another excuse to tack on a few bucks.None of those things individually are enough to move CPI.
But what if they donāt have to?
What if everyone is looking at gasoline while all these smaller categories quietly add up?Iām not saying the headline CPI comes in way above expectations. Gas falling from May could still help that.
Iām wondering more about core CPI
What if everyone expects around .3%, but it sneaks in at .4 because a bunch of these ālittleā things all hit at once?If that happens, wouldnāt the bigger move be in the bond market?
A hotter core number would probably push treasury yields higher as traders start pricing out rate cuts (or pricing in a greater chance the Fed stays higher for longer).
In a way, the bond market would be tightening financial conditions before the Fed even has
to do anything.
So hereās the real questionā¦
If your thesis is āhotter CPI #,ā whatās the cleaner trade?
SPY puts?
QQQ puts?
A Treasury trade?
Or is this whole idea already priced in and Iām just trying to justify why my grocery bill hurts my feelings?
Curious what everyone thinks. My kids could use a new pair of shoes for school.š. Thanks in advance of my loss or winš¤£
Submitted July 12, 2026 at 12:54AM by tiberiusjax
via reddit https://ift.tt/wnStiGN | 47 |
| 18 | Get a room already
https://ift.tt/EcMu0TR
Submitted July 12, 2026 at 12:08AM by Enough_Possibility41
via reddit https://ift.tt/ODucbSv | 52 |
| 19 | Big bank profit engines expected to roar into earnings as Main Street keeps spending
https://ift.tt/C03JnIH
Submitted July 11, 2026 at 11:31PM by Presently_Naked
via reddit https://ift.tt/inTzYD9 | 56 |
| 20 | My friend has lost $1.5M trading options. $500K in the last 90 days. How do I convince him to stop?
Iām in an options trading Discord and Iāve made a few friends there. One guy I talk to regularly just canāt seem to stop.He follows guru option trade signals and has blown up his account multiple times. He goes all in or takes huge positions in short-term options. Usually $40k to $50k per trade or even more. He revenge trades and has admitted to me that he has a gambling problem.He told me heās a vice president at a firm so he makes good money. Heās also been trading options for 4 to 5 years and says heās lost about $1.5 million total. Whatās even crazier is that about $500k of those losses happened in just the last three months after joining our Discord community.After blowing up his account on Monday he told me he was done for good. I supported that decision and told him to stop trading.A few days later he messaged me again and said he was back. He withdrew $40k from his IRA and even took the tax hit just to fund another trading account. I was honestly shocked.I told him if he was going to trade again he should keep his risk small. Maybe 2% to 3% per trade instead of going all in. He said he wasnāt going to do that and planned to keep trading the same position sizes as before.I told him if nothing changes heās probably going to blow up another account.At what point is enough? Have any of you had a friend who was this deep into gambling through options trading? Did they ever stop or did it take something major to finally make them quit?
Submitted July 11, 2026 at 10:10PM by LightGraves
via reddit https://ift.tt/kJ0oiw5 | 52 |
