EquiChain Wealth

View on IT Stocks -Positional / Quarter - Yearly result We see IT stocks in accumulation zone. Rationale 1) Margin in last quarterly result - seen stable & TCS reported improved margin. 2) INFY revenue growth guidance narrowed & management sounding confident about worst being over. 3) Interest rate in U.S. - can provide huge boost. 4) IT stocks can play counter trend even in case of downturn in U.S. economy. This year has been washout for large cap IT stocks...........we expect IT stocks to take lead in coming quarters. Next earnings season remains very important & decisive. Disclosure: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Nifty @ 22492 & Banknifty @ 47948 & VIX @ 14.18 We see indices in strong uptrend - as break-out above 22213 is seen positive and view remains positive till Nifty holds 22009. Any fresh deployment - will be stock specific approach. Accumulating IT, Defense & Private banks Mid-cap & Small-cap - has outperformed in FY23-24 & could see profit booking ahead of year end - March 2024 closing & particularly after recent steps and concern raised by SEBI to restrict Mutual fund. Disclosure: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Tata Sons May Be Valued At Up To $96 Billion In IPO, Spark Says Read more at: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/business/tata-sons-may-be-valued-at-up-to-96-billion-in-ipo-spark-says Copyright © NDTV Profit TATAINVEST TATACHEM This stock are buzzing on this news........we remain cautiously optimistic Strategy - Keep long position with small exposure or hedge long position in TATACHEM Disclosure: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

View on IT Stocks -Positional / Quarter - Yearly result Accumulate gradually - No major direction expected for next 2 - 3 weeks for IT stocks. INFY @ 1596 TCS @ 3986 HCLTECH @ 1618 LTIM @ 5147 LTTS @ 5203 Most of the IT stocks are trading below its high seen post last quarterly result in Jan-24 and we see correction as opportunity to accumulate gradually.

Nifty @ 22292 & Banknifty @ 47521 & VIX @ 14.38 RBI Action on JM Financial is having limited impacted on Banking stocks. We would avoid going short & any correction will be utilized for accumulation (stock specific approach) Defense / Infrastructure / Private Banks - looks attractive Nifty @ 22093 & Banknifty @ 46423 can provide fresh buying opportunity.

Market View: Defense & Real Estate stocks continue to see positive momentum, market will continue to focus on stock specific story. We would prefer correction to take fresh long position. — Nifty @ 22290 & Banknifty @ 47267 & VIX @ 14.92 Any correction / consolidation - we will prefer to add long position but in no hurry........... Not going short but addition in long position needs to be done with stock specific approach

Trade Setup for 5-Mar-24 Indian market consolidated after huge move seen on last Friday and momentum continued on Saturday. GIFT Nifty indicate flat start for Tuesday's session. Global cues: US Market consolidated after run-up seen last week, economic data this week will provide further cues and also testimony of US Fed Jerome Powell this week will be important event. Gold above $2100 & Bitcoin above $65000. US 10-year bond yield @ 4.22% & Dollar Index @ 103.835. Technical View: Indices after fresh break-out could see further momentum. Nifty @ 22446 & Banknifty @ 47748 could act as strong resistance level. Nifty @ 22093 & Banknifty @ 46423 can provide fresh buying opportunity. Market View: Defense & Real Estate stocks continue to see positive momentum, market will continue to focus on stock specific story. We would prefer correction to take fresh long position. GIFT Nifty @ 22488 Vs 22497 Nifty future previous close at 8:00 AM.

Nifty @ 22397 & Banknifty @ 47415 & VIX @ 15.21 We consider Friday's move post reaction to GDP's data as fresh break-out We will be looking for opportunity to deploy fund with a stock specific approach - during the week. Nifty @ 21958 & Banknifty @ 46073 - remain key support level

Last week – review Indices closed mixed this week as Nifty 50, SENSEX & Banknifty ended with around 1% gain, while Mid-cap 100 & Small-cap 100 closed with loss of around 1%. GDP data released on Thursday after market hours provided much needed rally from lows of the week to record high on major indices. Mid-cap & Small-cap underperformed this week as SEBI asked for further disclosure and regulation from Mutual fund. Technical Insight • Nifty could see fresh upside above 22446. Nifty range for this week could be 22297 to 22796. Nifty above 22297 is seen as fresh break-out. • Banknifty move on Friday can be seen as big positive and now immediate support @ 47052 and trend remains positive till it holds 47052. Approach on Technical: Friday’s move after strong GDP data on Thursday after market closing has change direction in short term. Last Wednesday & Thursday market remain under pressure. Nifty @ 22096 & Banknifty @ 46562 to act as important and decisive support level. Technical chart has turned positive and could test higher level. Nifty is expected to test 22446 & 22796. Banknifty likely to test 47748 & 48636. We see Friday’s move as big trigger as Nifty 50 index made fresh high and could open further upside. Fundamental Insight 1) India's GDP Grows 8.4% In Q3 Surpassing Estimates; Full-Year Growth Pegged At 7.6% The gross domestic product grew 8.4% over a year earlier in the October-December quarter, according to the latest estimates released by the government's statistical agency. Gross value added, which strips out indirect tax and subsidies, is estimated to have grown 6.5%. 2) Fiscal Deficit Widens To 64% Of Revised Estimates till January 3) India's GST Collection Rises 12.5% To Rs 1.68 Lakh Crore in February 4) Cabinet Nod for Three Semiconductor Units Entailing Rs 1.26 Lakh Crore Investment Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy Nifty closed at fresh 52-week high lead by broad base rally from banking to infrastructure sector. GST Collection for February came at 1.68 lakh crores, records 12.5% growth compared to previous year while decline compared to previous month’s collection of 1.74 lakh cores. We see recent development as fresh positive triggers and we may find opportunity to deploy fund available. In last few weeks, we have been underweighted as we were expecting correction, but market witness sideways correction / consolidation and Friday ‘s rally changed the sentiment. Q3FY24 GDP number just ahead of election could limit the downside. Any correction could be seen by market as buying opportunity as strong domestic inflows is now backed by strong economic data. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆

Global Market – Gold, Cryptocurrency & US averts shutdown Last week, we have discussed how global market continues to trade at recent high on hope of interest rate peaked out and hope of economic stability. This week we will focus on Gold which has now trading around $2050 & BITCOIN which is now above $60000 almost after two years. We will also discuss China’s continues effort to boost economy. Congress Approves Interim Funds to Avert U.S. Government Shutdown The Senate passed the bill on a 77-13 vote on Thursday night, hours after the House acted on it. Fed Officials emphasize Data to Guide Pace of Interest-Rate Cuts Three Federal Reserve officials said the pace of interest-rate cuts will depend on incoming economic data, suggesting the path to lower borrowing costs may look different than in previous rate-cutting cycles. U.S. Fed’s Preferred Inflation Metric Increases by Most in A Year The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation rose in January at the fastest pace in nearly a year, helping explain policymakers’ patient approach to start cutting interest rates. Bitcoin Scales $60,000 As ETF Demand Puts Record High in Sight A wild 24 hours for the cryptocurrency market saw Bitcoin jump as much as 13% on Wednesday to $63,968 — its first trip above $60,000 since November 2021. Along the way, leading US digital-asset exchange Coinbase suffered outages as traffic surged before eventually restoring services. Gold trading above $2050 Gold has been trading around $2000 level for some time now, gold price would rally if interest rate decline or any economic uncertainty. Gold is considered as safe heaving and asset class which comes into focus in case of any economic uncertainty. Japanese Currency Official Warns Against Unstable FX At G-20 Japan kept up its drumbeat of warnings against currency volatility, with a top finance ministry official saying that foreign exchange rates should reflect fundamentals, and authorities in Tokyo are watching moves closely. Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion We remain cautious on Japan ‘s change in monitory policy which was -0.10 interest rate since 2016. Japanese currency official warning against unstable FX at G-20 needs to see with cautious. Global market and risk-on sentiment remains very much strong; however, we have been cautious for past weeks, but market momentum seems to be very strong. Incoming economic data due next week could provide further cues as we remain neutral with balance view. Recent up move in Gold & Bitcoin is interesting to watch as incoming economic data needs to be watched carefully ahead US Fed meeting on 20-Mar-24. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆

Final F&O expiry due tomorrow...............We expect volatility to continue. We maintain our stance - remain invested around 65% - 70% & wait for correction to deploy fund. We are not taking any short position although we are expecting correction................That's how we define our strategy. ——— posted on 28-Feb-24 Nifty @ 22129 & Banknifty @ 46507 & VIX @ 15.26 Market has given many such false negative indication and had surprised bounce.............today's bounce is supported by positive GDP data which send clear & loud message.............Economy is in good shape. We have maintain our position as bullish but remain invested around 65% - 70% as trend was looking weak.............. Nifty above 22007 & Banknifty above 46073 - can been seen as positive.............remain cautious if indices go below this level. No major change in allocation strategy - for now

Trade Setup for 1-Mar-24 Indian Market: Indices had volatile session in range on final day of F&O expiry. Indices witness both way swings as trend remains weak. India's GDP - Growth at 8.4% Vs estimate of 7.6%. Full growth for FY23 - 24 now pegged at 7.6% Vs earlier estimate of 7.3%. Global cues: US Market closed flat as US Core PCE Inflation data came at 0.40% in-line with estimate. Dollar index @ 104.01 & US 10-year bond yield @ 4.262% - Key risk indicator remains stable. Technical View: Nifty closed just below 22009 & Banknifty above 46073 - now this level are acting as resistance level. Technical trend remains sideways. Market View: Fresh series start with positive surprise from Q3FY24 GDP data & GIFT Nifty indicates around 40 - 50 points positive opening. GIFT Nifty @ 22224 Vs 22160 Nifty future previous close at 8:20 AM.

Nifty @ 21963 & Banknifty @ 45882 & VIX @ 15.85 We see market holding due to final F&O expiry............expect further downside side. We remain bearish till indices are below this important level - Nifty @ 22009 & Banknifty @ 46073

Trade Setup for 29-Feb-24 Indian market: All major indices were down by 1.08% to 1.94% & VIX closed above 16.33. Today will be final day for F&O expiry for February series. SEBI asking for disclosure & restriction for SIP & Lumpsum investment and withdrawal has led the correction. Global Cues: US Market had flat session, US Prelim GDP data released came at 3.2% Vs estimate of 3.3%. US 10-year bond yield @ 4.28% & Dollar Index @ 103.827 remains stable. Technical View: First sign of weakness on indices as Nifty closed below 22009 & Banknifty below 46073. Now this level could act as resistance level and we see negative trend may continue today as well. Market View: We remain bearish till indices stay below this level - Nifty @ 22009 & Banknifty @ 46073. Any buying opportunity to be seen at 3% correction from top on indies and stock specific approach. GIFT Nifty @ 21936.50 Vs 21921 Nifty future previous close at 8:05 AM.

Nifty @ 21975 & Banknifty @ 46037 & VIX @ 16.32 Indices are trading near support level .............Closing below support level could trigger further downside. US Prelim GDP - due to be released today. Final F&O expiry due tomorrow...............We expect volatility to continue. We maintain our stance - remain invested around 65% - 70% & wait for correction to deploy fund. We are not taking any short position although we are expecting correction................That's how we define our strategy.

Market at day's low Nifty @ 21948 & Banknifty @ 45985 & VIX @ 16.59 More downside expected............play by strategy

Nifty @ 22111 & Banknifty @ 46392 & VIX @ 15.81 Major weakness only after Nifty @ 22009 & Banknifty @ 46073 breaks..........

Nifty @ 22205 & Banknifty @ 46658 & VIX @ 15.77 Market trading in narrow range.............we would wait for clarity. We are expecting volatility ahead of expiry tomorrow.............so far market has been trading in narrow range & no volatility.