EquiChain Wealth

Trade Setup for 28-Feb-24 Indian market had muted session with steady recovery in 2nd half to as major indices are now up by 0.34%, while Mid-cap & Small-cap index closed flat. Global cues: US Market had another mix session as DOW30 closed with minor cuts, while S&P500 and NASDAQ was closed in positive territory. Technical View: Nifty @ 22009 & Banknifty @ 46073 remains key support level and indices remain in positive territory till indices trade above this level. Nifty @ 22297 & Banknifty @ 47052 to act as resistance level. Market View: Near term trend remains uncertain as market is less volatile than expected, we still continue to expect big swing ahead of final expiry tomorrow. Today & Tomorrow will be important as near term trend is positive. GIFT Nifty @ 22219 Vs 22203 Nifty future previous close at 8:35 AM.

Trade Setup for 27-Feb-24 Indian market: Indices ended with minor cuts on profit booking as indices face some supply at higher level. LT & POWERGRID were major gainers. Global cues: US Market ended flat with minor cuts on profit booking, as market awaits Core PCE data due later this week. Technical View: Nifty @ 22009 & Banknifty @ 46073 to act as support level, Banknifty continues to underperform Nifty. Market likely to consolidate as we expect high volatility due to final F&O expiry for February series on 29-Feb-24. Market View: We believe market in distribution phase, we would wait for dip / correction for any fresh buying. GIFT Nifty indicate weak opening by 20 - 40 points. GIFT Nifty @ 22121 Vs 22137 Nifty future previous close at 8:15 AM.

Nifty @ 22177 & Banknifty @ 46787 & VIX @ 15.72 We are expecting big swing before 29-Feb-24 - this month's expiry We are keeping balance approached........... Technical trend - Bullish Valuation looks stretched & We see this as distribution phase.......... Balance approach & Avoiding F&O or leverage position.

Trade Setup for 26-Feb-24 Indian market: Indices closed flat on Friday as Nifty made fresh record high and seen profit booking at higher level. Global cues: US Market closed flat after rally seen this week, led by NVIDIA after its result beat estimate. Key risk indicator remains stable - Dollar Index @ 103.935 & US 10-year bond yield @ 4.23. Technical View: Nifty @ 22096 & Banknifty @ 46562 to act as support level. Market is looking for fresh trigger while technical trend remains positive. Market View: We would prefer to have balance view, continue to have bullish view while keeping cash level around 30% - 35% to be deployed on correction. GIFT Nifty @ 22240 Vs 22228 Nifty future previous close at 8:15 AM.

Last week – review Last week market movement were more related to volatility seen during this week but indices continue to trade in narrow range. Nifty 50 & SENSEX closed at fresh all-time high was market sentiment remain cautious. Technical Insight • Nifty this week range seen at 21956 & 22446 with positive trend. Nifty around 21938 level likely to act as important support level on trend line from October 2023. • Banknifty this week range seen at 46073 to 47748. Banknifty @ 46073 to act as important support level and fresh up move can be seen above 47052. Approach on Technical: Going into trade this week, Nifty remain strong as compared to Banknifty. This week’s trade will be dominated by final F&O expiry for February 2024 series. Technical setup remains bullish till Nifty @ 21957 & Banknifty @ 46073 holds. We expect indices to test higher target on Nifty @ 22448 & Banknifty @ 47748 & higher. Fundamental Insight 1) Policy Pivot Unlikely Until Inflation Is Under Control, Show MPC Minutes 2) Citi Research: Nifty Expected to See 14% Earnings Growth for Couple of Years 3) RBI Allows Banks, Non-Banks to Issue Public Transport Payment Instruments Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy Even though market is trading near its fresh life time, market sentiment remains cautious. High volatility was seen this week cues from domestic & global market remains stable and positive while valuation seems to be stretched. We continue to maintain our stance to keep allocation level around 65% to 70% while remain bullish with medium to long term view. We remain cautious with short term view and keeping our strategy to make fresh allocation only on decline. Technical setup looks bullish going into F&O expiry this week for February 2024 series. However, we continue to play cautious and expecting high volatility in final F&O expiry week. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆

Global Market – US Market at record high – DOW30 above 39000 and S&P500 above 5000 This week we will discuss US market which are trading at record high, US FOMC meeting minutes released this week and how China continue to provide support to its economy which continue to struggle despite opening up in last January. NVIDIA after its fantastic earnings lead the rally in tech stocks. US FOMC meeting minutes released this week failed to provide any timing of rate cut, yet not negative reaction by market and market took this outcome with a stable view. Fed Minutes Suggest Officials Are Seeking Smallest Balance Sheet Possible Federal Reserve policymakers are gearing up for a bigger discussion about the central bank’s balance sheet, but for now its clear officials are keen to make it as small as possible. U.S. Jobless Claims Decline to Lowest Level in A Month Initial claims decreased by 12,000 to 201,000 in the week ending Feb. 17, according to Labor Department data released on Thursday. The figure was lower than all economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Top Fed Officials Bolster Case for Patient Stance on Rate Cuts Three top Federal Reserve officials hammered home the message Thursday that the US central bank is still on track to cut interest rates this year — just not anytime soon. China’s Central Bank Tries to Catch Markets Off Guard with Surprise Easing A record cut to a key lending rate earlier this week announced by the People’s Bank of China was just the latest unexpected move since Governor Pan Gongsheng took office last summer. At a press briefing last month, he shocked with an outsized cut to banks’ reserve requirement ratio. Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion We are certainly cautious as rally seen in market globally seems to be running ahead of its on positive expectation and events will follow later on. Risk-On sentiment continue to provide much needed boost as economy remains strong. In such time we would continue to maintain balance approach with investment around 65% to 75% while keeping cash level anywhere between 25% to 35%. We do fear that market may be venerable to any negative news which could increase volatility in near term. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆

JIOFIN @ 340 So far - this script has been in passive investment with small allocation. We have moved this script to active watch list. 🩼🩼

Nifty @ 22233 & Banknifty @ 46814 & VIX @ 15.14 Indices continue to trade in range - short term trend seems to be positive......... We continue to follow our strategy - Keep exposure around 70%...........or bring down to around 65%. Fresh buying preferred on Dip / correction / better clarity - No fresh buying for now.

Trade Setup for 23-Feb-24 Indian market: Nifty recovered more than 300 points from the low to gain by 0.74% / 162.40 points higher and close at fresh 52-week high. Mid-cap & Small-cap also participated in recovery and closed in green. Global cues: US Market closed at record high at DOW30 crosses 39000 level, NVIDIA continue to lead the rally post its earnings. Uncertainty over rate cut remains as economic data remains strong. Technical View: Nifty indicates fresh up move, Nifty @ 22096 to act as support level and 22446 to act as resistance level. Banknifty @ 47360 to act as resistance level and break out above this level can be seen as positive. Market View: Market momentum has turned positive after yesterday's sharp reversal almost recovery of around 1.5% on major indices. It is safe to assume that positive momentum may continue going into F&O expiry for February series. GIFT Nifty @ 22314 Vs 22243 Nifty future previous close at 8:00 AM.

Nifty @ 22201 & Banknifty @ 46864 & VIX @ 15.27 Nifty back to its recent high recovered 325 points from day's low............ 😔😔

We expect major correction - If Nifty @ 21958 & Banknifty @ 46571 levels on closing basis. — We will turn bearish / cautious - only when indices close below this level..........

We expect major correction - If Nifty @ 21958 & Banknifty @ 46571 levels on closing basis. b

Nifty @ 22059 & Banknifty @ 46840 & VIX @ 15.27 Yet again - trend reversed................

Rationale / Random observation Major indices - trading within 2% of its fresh high made this week...............any fresh buying can be reviewed around 3% correction for high. Nifty @ 21562 & Banknifty @ 45295 - will be watching this level closely for any support.............

Nifty @ 21978 & Banknifty @ 46863 & VIX @ 15.79 We expect major correction - If Nifty @ 21958 & Banknifty @ 46571 levels on closing basis.

Trade Setup for 22-Feb-24 Indian market: indices closed with cut of around half a percent on major indices & Mid-cap & Small-cap indices down by more than 1% on profit booking. VIX continues to trade around 16 level. Global cues: US FOMC meeting minutes - most Fed member flagged risk of cutting rates too soon, timing of first rate cut is unclear. US 10-year bond yield @ 4.304% & Dollar index @ 103.859, key risk indicator stable reacting to US FOMC meeting. Technical View: Nifty key support at 21958 & resistance @ 22230. Banknifty key support at 46571 & resistance @ 47360. We expect Nifty @ 21958 & Banknifty @ 46571 to act as support level, major weakness only below this level. Market View: GIFT Nifty indicate gap-up opening of 70 - 80 points, however we remain cautious as we see sign of supply at higher level, we see any rise as opportunity to book profit and increase cash level. GIFT Nifty @ 22126 Vs 22034 Nifty future previous close at 7:45 AM.

US FOMC Meeting minutes - due to be released tonight Indian market will react to it tomorrow.............. Time to reduce exposure / Book profit / Can wait for better opportunity on correction.

Nifty @ 22066 & Banknifty @ 47034 & VIX @ 15.99 Nifty down more than 130 points from 22197 & Banknifty holding on due to weekly options expiry. Time to reduce exposure..................Nifty at fresh high We believe - Maintain exposure around 70% or even bring up to 65%............