EquiChain Wealth

Last week – review Going into trade last week, market trend was positive but Mid-cap & Small-cap led the fall in market. Nifty @ 22334 & Banknifty @ 47437 was support-level mentioned and once indices broke this level, market witness free fall after that. Mid-cap 100 was down by 4.66% while Small-cap index was down by 5.49% for this week. Technical Insight Nifty short-term trend is showing downward trend and RSI is currently around 47 – 50 and could be heading towards 30 level. Nifty RSI around or below 30 could be seen as over-sold zone, so currently Nifty on chart does not indicate oversold zone. Banknifty short-term trend remains negative and currently closed just below 46616. Banknifty range for this week is expected to be 45661 to 47206. Banknifty chart shows little hope of trend reversal in next week. Approach on Technical: This week will be dominated by BOJ meeting outcome on 19-Mar-24 & US Fed meeting outcome on 20-Mar-24, which will impact Indian market on 21-Mar-24. We see Nifty @ 21860 & Banknifty @ 45661 as important level and sell-off could accelerate if these levels are broken. Fundamental Insight 1) Government Launches Projects Worth Rs 11 Lakh Crore In Run-Up To 2024 Polls 2) India's CPI Inflation Steady At 5.09% In February, Food Prices Rise 3) IIP: India's Industrial Output Grows 3.8% In January 4) Indian Companies Report Strongest Hiring Outlook For June Quarter Globally: Report 5) Indian Bond Market Could See $40-50 Billion Inflows Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy Last week major highlight was massive correction seen in Mid-Cap & Small-Cap index which has seen huge rally since 3-Dec-23, since state election result declared. Interest rate peaked globally and major central banks has maintained rate for past six months and now the focus shift on interest rate cut and its timing. Indian market going into financial year end and 5-days in next week and only 3 working days in last week, would be important as major year end settlement is likely to take place in next week. Indian market has seen correction on valuation concern in Mid-Cap & Small-Cap. Our strategy would be to add in case of any major correction as we expect market could remain under pressure but that could be seen as buying opportunity with medium term view. Key event next week will be on global interest rate. Once March end effect is seen – market will be driven by earnings season from 2nd week of April and sentiment on election result back home. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆

Global Market – BOJ Policy on 19-Mar-24 & US FOMC Policy outcome on 20-Mar-24 This week, many central banks meeting are scheduled and their commentary will be important event to watch out for. We would focus on Bank of Japan meeting outcome on 19-Mar-24 & US FOMC meeting outcome on 20-Mar-24. Bank of England meeting is schedule on 21-Mar-24. U.S. Economic data These data shows mix picture and market continue to see mix trend ahead of U.S. Fed meeting on 20-Mar-24. Based on the incoming data the key risk indicator are showing mix trend, Dollar index around 103 while US 10-year bond yield is trading around 4.30%. BOJ Meeting on 19-Mar-24 & US Fed meeting outcome on 20-Mar-24. • BOJ is expected to raise rates from existing negative interest rate which is currently at -0.10%. BOJ guidance on JGB yield curve will be key to watch out for. • US Fed likely to keep interest rate unchanged, US Fed chair Jerome Powell commentary will be important to watch out for. • Bank of England likely to keep interest rate unchanged at 5.25% and its guidance will be key after ECB guided for lowering of interest rate in June 2024. Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion We see BOJ and US Fed as two major event next week, which will provide cues for the global risk sentiment. Incoming U.S. economic data is giving mix signals and showing economic is in good shape and US Fed should not be in any hurry to cut rate as guided by US Fed chair Jerome Powell in his testimony last week. Market remained venerable in case of any negative outcome from BOJ meeting outcome or U.S. Fed meeting outcome. We would maintain cautious stance as any commentary or guidance on cutting rate could provide positive trigger while any hawkish comment by BOJ could spoil the sentiment. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆

we continue to expect market to remain under pressure in coming two weeks. — morning post Nifty @ 21967 & Banknifty @ 46360 & VIX @ 14.21 Nifty near its Wednesday's low Banknifty well below Wednesday's low Mid-cap & Small-cap - Indices trading above Wednesday's low but stock specific - trend looks weak. We are expecting further weakness / correction in next week.........

Trade Setup for 15-Mar-24 Indian market had relief rally after massive sell-off seen on Wednesday, Banknifty underperformed on Thursday after it outperformed on Wednesday. Global Market: US Market ended with mild correction PPI & Core PPI data came above estimate & Retails sales below estimate. U.S. 10-year bond yield back at 4.28% & Dollar Index @ 103.11. Strong PPI data would indicate that - US Fed will wait for more data before providing any cues on interest rate cut. GIFT Nifty indicate around 100 points gap-down, yesterday's rally can be seen as relief rally and downtrend may continue. Market View: Any major correction could provide good opportunity to deploy fund, we continue to expect market to remain under pressure in coming two weeks.

Banknifty @ 46710 Banks stock down as year pressure / correction - We would use this opportunity to buy with medium term / positional view. HDFCBANK @ 1446 AXISBANK @ 1075 ICICIBANK @ 1084.50 SBIN @ 736 Any correction for 3% to 5% from current rate would be attractive to take fresh entry / deployment.

Nifty @ 21956 & Banknifty @ 46600 & VIX @ 14.67 Today Banknifty is weak and we expect selling in Banknifty & Banks in next 1 - 2 trading session. However, we see some possibility of recovery in 2nd half today..........due to Nifty weekly option expiry First hour trade will be crucial..............Positional buying to be reviewed only from next week.

Nifty Mid-cap 100 down by 4.26% & Small-cap 100 down by 5.07% There is bloodbath in Mid-cap & Small-cap stocks............ We will prefer to go by strategy................mentioned is previous post above 👆👆

We have maintained our exposure around 65% - 75% and would prefer to increase deployment gradually with stock specific approach. Market continues its uptrend and momentum could get strong if it is supported by action of central banks which could lead to short covering rally ahead of financial year end. — Nifty @ 22092 & Banknifty @ 47072 & VIX @ 14.38 Mid-cap & Small-cap continues to remain under pressure as valuation & regulatory concern weighs on sentiment. We believe - Broad market will continue to remain under pressure, but opportunity to add at lower level seen in large cap stocks. #ITstocks #Privatebanks We see 3rd & 4th week of this month could provide attractive opportunity to buy / add with medium term. Potential positive triggers 1) General election result 2) Global cues- Interest rate heading downward. 3) U.S. Fed meeting on 20-Mar-24 - could guide for rate cut, market expecting first rate cut in June FOMC meeting. Next quarterly earnings for IT & Banks - we have positive view on large cap stocks from this sectors.

Nifty @ 22338 & Banknifty @ 47322 & VIX @ 13.77 Mid-cap & Small-cap continues to remain under pressure as valuation & regulatory concern weighs on sentiment. We believe - Broad market will continue to remain under pressure, but opportunity to add at lower level seen in large cap stocks. #ITstocks #Privatebanks We see 3rd & 4th week of this month could provide attractive opportunity to buy / add with medium term. Potential positive triggers 1) General election result 2) Global cues- Interest rate heading downward. 3) U.S. Fed meeting on 20-Mar-24 - could guide for rate cut, market expecting first rate cut in June FOMC meeting. Next quarterly earnings for IT & Banks - we have positive view on large cap stocks from this sectors.

Equichain Valuation Matrix – IT Stocks – FY24 Result & Interest rate heading downward Earlier we have review IT stocks after major IT companies declared their result and reaction was positive to INFY & TCS numbers. TCS Margin at 25% was key highlight while INFY narrowed revenue guidance for FY23-24 to 1.50 to 2.0% showing confidence as lower end of guidance was revised upward and upper end was revise downward going into last quarter for FY23 – 24. We will focus on IT stocks as we are 4 weeks away from next quarter / yearly earnings season and IT stocks will start the result season as usual. We see this time as accumulation zone for IT stocks and any pressure due to year end factor or profit booking, any correction could be used to buy IT stocks at current level. Guidance in next earnings season – INFY full year guidance will be key. TCS & HCLTECH has outperformed other IT stocks, however in near term WIPRO is major gainers by 15.56% and LTIM is down by 16.55% during this period. This remains stocks specific story as WIPRO has been underperform in last few quarters. Global Interest rate – U.S. Fed meeting on 20-Mar-24 Next U.S. Fed meeting scheduled outcome on 20-Mar-24, any comment or guidance on interest rate cut in June 2024 or July 2024 meeting could provide positive trigger to IT stocks. Equichain Valuation matrix: Time to accumulate – IT Stocks For IT stocks, last 6 – 7 quarters return has been flat and we can say that – it has been washout for IT companies based on stock prices in last 6 – 7 quarters. We see this as time to accumulate and IT stocks has seen margin stabilize or expanded in last quarterly result. We are optimistic going into result season next quarter and more and any correction in near term could be seen as time to accumulate for next 2 – 3 quarters. Interest rate is heading southwards and it could help IT stocks. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆

Nifty @ 22376 & Banknifty @ 43298 & VIX @ 14.14? Market trend remains weak - Small-cap index down by 1.54% 🩼🩼

Nifty @ 22471 & Banknifty @ 47690 & VIX 14.22 Nifty @ 22334 & Banknifty @ 47206 - are important support level - will review fresh buy position at that level. Note: We prefer to play long and in at current stage when our view is cautious - we remain under invested & avoid any short position. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Last week – review Technical trend turned positive and expected indices to test higher level in 4-day trading week. Banknifty outperformed this week as ICICIBANK, AXISBANK & SBIN lead the Banknifty rally. Mid-cap & Small-cap under performed as Small-cap index closed the week with cut of 2%. Technical Insight • Nifty range of this week seen at 22334 to 22627 and Nifty above 22627 could provide fresh upside triggers. level. • Banknifty range seen at 47206 to 48535. Banknifty has outperformed this week and outperformance likely to continue. Approach on Technical: Going into trade next week, GIFT Nifty is indicating gap-up opening of more than 100 points on positive global cues. Technical trend continues to remain positive and Nifty @ 22627 & Banknifty @ 48161 to act as resistance. If Indices manage to move above these levels, it could further trigger short covering rally and indices could test higher level in this week on Nifty @ 22921 & Banknifty @ 48535. Fundamental Insight 1) Centre Hikes Dearness Allowance To 50% Of Basic Pay For Its Employees 2) Gold Rallies To Record High But May Have Overshot Its Near-Term Upside 3) How Discoms Will Be Hit If They're To Meet Peak Demand Of 250 GW In April-June 4) Singtel Divests 0.8% Stake In Bharti Airtel For Rs 5,849 Crore Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy Global sentiment is turning positive ahead of next round of central banks meeting which starts with Bank of Japan on 19-Mar-24, U.S. Fed on 20-Mar-24 & Bank of England on 21-Mar-24. Recent rally in Gold, US 10-year bond yield below 4.10% & Dollar index below 103 – market rally on hope of rate cut by US Fed by in May 2024. ECB kept interest rate unchanged on 7-Mar-24 and guided for rate cut in June 2024 depending on incoming data. BOJ is expected to hike rate on 19-Mar-24. We have maintained our exposure around 65% - 75% and would prefer to increase deployment gradually with stock specific approach. Market continues its uptrend and momentum could get strong if it is supported by action of central banks which could lead to short covering rally ahead of financial year end. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆

Global Market – Gold, ECB meeting & U.S. Fed – Powell ‘s testimony This week we will focus on ECB meeting outcome, ECB kept interest rate unchanged and commentary is important to watch out for. U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell testimony this week provided further cues on interest rate trajectory and we would be focus on gold which is currently trading at above $2150. ECB Meeting outcome on 7-Mar-24 ECB kept rates unchanged at 4.50% for fourth straight time as ECB expect softer inflation and stable economic growth, ECB guides for rate cut in June 2024 meeting. “We clearly need more evidence, more detail,” she told reporters Thursday in Frankfurt. “We know that this data will come in the next few months. We will know a little more in April, but we will know a lot more in June.” Christine Lagarde Signals ECB Cut in June with 2% Inflation in Sight European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde indicated policymakers may be in a position to lower interest rates in June as fresh projections showed inflation hitting the 2% target in 2025. U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Senate Testimony Powell reiterated that it’s likely the Fed will cut interest rates this year. “We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at 2%,” he said. “When we do get that confidence — and we’re not far from it — it’ll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction.” He also said the Fed is well aware of the risk of cutting too late. Gold Climbs to Record on Mix of Fed Pivot and Geopolitical Risks Gold touched an all-time high as fund buying combined with speculation over a Federal Reserve pivot and geopolitical and financial risks underpinned a rally in the precious metal. Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion Last week, we have turned neutral to cautious with balance view last week, this week’s comment by U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell in a testimony to U.S. Congress and ECB ‘s guidance on expectation of first rate cut in June has provided positive trigger to risk-on sentiment. We will use any correction to add / deploy fund and recent trend looks positive. Market not expecting any change in rate in this month, but guidance on rate cut in coming months or likely by May 2024 meeting could provide much needed trigger and rally. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆