EquiChain Wealth

Nifty @ 22544 & Banknifty @ 48936 & VIX @ 14.64 Wait for some consolidation / correction for any fresh entry............ If for any reason - market corrects by 3% - 4% ahead of 20-May-24 - that is 5th phase of voting.................we would review fresh buying. Increase in VIX - indicating build up in risk premium in options.............Expect volatility once VIX crosses 16 - 17 range. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

BHARTIARTL @ 1307 Result on 14-May-24 After sharp rally last month which was triggered by VI - OFS, earnings could fresh positive triggers. We have positive view with result + Short term momentum Any long position will be preferred with 2% cost (SL) Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

LT @ 3626 Result on 8-May-24 LT has been consolidating for some time now - we may add long position with result + Election result view We maintain capital allocation strategy. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

TATATECH @ 1088 After initial IPO buzz stock has largely underperformed and has not participated in market rally. We continue to have positive view with medium to long term view. At current rate - we see fresh opportunity to add at current level - increase exposure marginally. We expect 1130 - 1150 to act as resistance zone current up move likely to test this level, fresh momentum is expected once it crosses above 1150. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

U.S. Fed meeting 1-May-24 - Key points 1) U.S. Fed keeps interest rate unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50% - keeps rate steady for 6th time. 2) Inflation eased over past year but remains sticky, remains high above target rate of 2% - Powell 3) U.S. Fed statement indicated rate could remain higher for longer period. Inflation data received this year has been higher than expected. 4) Fed chair Jerome Powell: Ruled out rate hike in next meeting, maintain dovish stance. 5) Fed chair Jerome Powell: Weakening of labour market could spur rate cuts. 6) Fed fund rates - Now factoring rate cut in September 2024. U.S. Market rallied after dovish stance maintain by U.S. Fed as any rate hike is ruled out and incoming economic data, particularly jobs data and CPI & Core CPI data in coming months to provide further cues. We see today's outcome to have limited to positive impact on Indian market as our market will shift its focus to earnings for companies which are yet to declare result and general election. PSU 's will continue to remain in focus in near term.

Nifty @ 22660 & Banknifty @49542 & VIX @ 12.96 Market seeing some profit booking / selling pressure ahead of U.S. Fed meeting tomorrow Indices - Nifty & Banknifty - both made fresh 52-week high today View mentioned in morning - Can use this rally to book profit and wait for dip............US Fed meeting outcome will provide fresh cues. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Nifty @ 22738 & Banknifty @ 49526 & VIX @ 13.02 As Nifty approaches all time high - We may prefer to use this rally for re-shuffling with stock specific approach. US Fed meeting on 1-May-24 - tomorrow is trading holiday. Positional view remain bullish - but fresh buying to be preferred on dip. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

ICICIBANK @ 1131 Result - positive as per our expectation. Short term trade: We may prefer to book profit and will take fresh view later. Positional view remain bullish but part profit booking around 1130 expected. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Last week – review Indices manage to test higher end of the range mentioned last week, Nifty @ 22518 & Banknifty @ 48295 were tested in this week before seeing some supply at higher level to finish the week with gains of more than 1% on major indices, Banknifty was up by 0.88% this week as RBI put restriction on new online credit card business on KOTAKBANK and it was down 10% on Thursday. Technical Insight Nifty after sharp recovery on last Friday, continue it up move and tested upper end of the range that is 22524 and made high of 22625 this week. Nifty @ 22117 to act as support level and 22775 to act as resistance level for this week. Weekly closing on Nifty indicates sideways trend. Approach on Technical: Market react to ICICIBANK earnings on Monday and 1-May-24 is U.S. Fed meeting. Nifty range for this week seen at 22117 to 22775 and Banknifty range 47062 to 49057. Our strategy on Nifty will be turn cautious on Nifty below 22368 & turn positive on Nifty above 22524. Banknifty immediate support comes at 47824 & fresh up move above 48574 is expected. We expect indices to consolidate this in broad range mentioned here and follow strategy to buy around support level Nifty @ 22117 & Banknifty @ 47062. Fundamental Insight 1) India's Forex Kitty Declines By $2.28 Billion To $640.33 Billion For Second Consecutive Week 2) RBI Maintains 6% FPI Investment Limit In G-Secs For FY25 3) Household Debt Hits Record High As Indians Splurge, Study Shows Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy Mid-cap & Small-cap continue to do well, especially defense PSU and other PSU on hope of majority win by BJP and we expect momentum could only build on further as voting for next 5 phases. Market will be focusing on geopolitical tension and U.S. Fed meeting on 1-May-24. We are keeping our base view and strategy same as mentioned last week as we don’t see major directional move before 20-May-24. We remain optimistic and our strategy would be to accumulate gradually and bring exposure to as high as 90% over next few weeks. Any correction due to weak earnings or geo-political tension could be seen as buying opportunity with stock specific approach. We continue to like banking, infrastructure and defense sectors and any further decline in IT stocks will make them attractive to accumulate. We remain very optimistic with election result date that is 4-Jun-24. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆

Global Market – U.S. Economic data & Fed meeting on 1-May-24 in focus In last two weeks we have focused on U.S. economic data and geopolitical tension triggering risk-off sentiment in market. Market has also shifted its focus to earnings season as earnings season so far has been mixed bag and market continues to take cues from U.S. Economic data and geopolitical development. U.S. Economic data from 10-Apr-24 to 26-Apr-24 U.S. CPI & Core CPI data which came slightly above market estimate has pushed hope of interest rate cut from June 2024 to September 2024 FOMC meeting. U.S. advance GDP q/q which came much below market estimate and Core PCE Price index which came in-line with estimate ahead of US FOMC meeting on 1-May-24. U.S. FOMC meeting on 1-May-24 Market is now factoring 45.6% probability of first rate cut in September 2024 meeting. Next few U.S. Fed meeting is scheduled on 1-May-24, 12-Jun-24, 31-Jul-24 & 18-Sep-24. So, market is now estimating first rate cut after 4 and half months and many economic data are due between 1-May-24 and 18-Sep-24. We see things are changing very fast and narrative gets change as economic data will continue to provide state of economic conditions. Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion We have turned positive on global market as hope of first interest rate cut which was expected as early as June 2024 meeting. We still remain hope of first rate cut in June 2024 as we would be focusing on US Fed chair Jerome Powell commentary on 1-May-24. U.S. advance GDP data which came below market estimate and Core PCE Price index which was in-line with market estimate are key reason that we believe that hope of first rate cut in June 2024 FOMC meeting is still alive. We may review our stand after next US Fed meeting on 1-May-24, if outcome is not as per our expectation. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆

Nifty @ 22440 & Banknifty @ 48288 & VIX @ 10.94 Market seeing some profit booking from high of the week - as today is last trading day of the week. We see this as profit booking and trend very much remain bullish. Key events to watch out for 1) U.S. Core CPE Price index - key data after weak U.S. GDP data released yesterday. 2) ICICIBANK result tomorrow We will use any correction or further dip to add fresh long position. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

ICICIBANK @ 1122 🔥🔥 After positive result from AXISBANK - now market expecting fireworks from ICICIBANK. ICICIBANK - has been outperforming all its peer in las 14 - 18 quarters......... We maintain positive view Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

2) Focus may shift to banking stocks - as many banks are due to announce result in next few days. — yesterday's post KOTAKBANK @ 1664 - reacting to restriction by RBI AXISBANK @ 1109 - reacting to positive result ICICIBANK @ 1103 - result on 27-Apr-24 HDFCBANK @ 1515 - flat We are now focusing ICICIBANK with view on result. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Nifty @ 22410 & Banknifty @ 48180 & VIX @ 10.16 1) We expect some supply / profit booking at higher level. 2) Focus may shift to banking stocks - as many banks are due to announce result in next few days. 3) F&O expiry & VI listing tomorrow - expecting volatility to increase. Any correction - need to be seen as buying opportunity. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Defense stocks We may opt to book part profit at current level Positional view remain bullish & rally in near term may be overdone and some correction / consolidation can't be ruled out. Note: We do not have bearish view or going short - we are following our allocation strategy. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Defense stocks are buzzing in trade today............ HAL @ 3945 BDL @ 2058 Trading at fresh 52-week high. 🚀🚀

Nifty @ 22459 & Banknifty @ 48198 & VIX @ 10.08 Indices are near our weekly resistance level - details & levels mentioned in weekly report Nifty @ 22518 & Banknifty @ 48295 - Upper range level. Short term view - Can book profit in trading portfolio & final F&O expiry tomorrow & Banknifty expiry today. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Equichain Valuation Matrix: Strategy on defense stocks • Focus on volume growth & order book will provide fresh triggers. • Defense order other than domestic market will be key positive trigger. Now many defenses contract are done with government to government rather than government to company – so strong & stable government will provide fresh triggers. • Continuation of current government post general election will provide next round of rally in defense stock and we expect that rally will be broad based and earnings will provide fresh round of rally. — posted on 9-Apr-24 Defense stocks continue to trade at fresh 52-week high. HAL @ 3818 BDL @ 1915 BEL @ 235 COCHINSHIP @ 1208 MAZDOCK @ 2265 We maintain positional long view on this stocks and will prefer to avoid taking short term trades as we see more upside from current level. Fresh position can be added as per capital allocation strategy. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg