EquiChain Wealth

Nifty @ 22284 & Banknifty @ 47821 & VIX @ 12.95 We continue to remain bullish and would prefer to accumulate stock gradually and bring exposure to as high as 90% by 20-May-24 which is 5th phase of voting. HDFCBANK - is currently trading around 1520 - seen profit booking after gap-up opening. We maintain bullish view and would continue to accumulate on decline. RELIANCE - result today - expect stock price to trade in range of 2% +/-. No fireworks expected. We are bullish on AXISBANK, ICICIBANK with a view on result and have turned positive on KOTAKBANK. IT stocks - major IT companies came out with result - we would accumulate / fresh addition on decline. IT stocks will take cues from global development and has very little impact due to domestic development that is - from General election point. Top picks - Infrastructure, Defense & Banking. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Last week – review This week started with market reacting to TCS result and waited for guidance from INFY which declared result on Thursday. Revenue guidance for FY25 at 1% - 3% and margin guidance from 20% - 22%. Indian market witness profit booking on back on weak global cues and geopolitical uncertainty. Technical Insight Nifty recent up move started around 3rd week of March when Nifty was trading just below 22000 and Nifty went below 22000 on Friday morning reacting to geopolitical news. Banknifty manage to hold on to support level of 46519 which comes at 78.6% retracement level of 45828 to 49057 up move seen after 20-Mar-24. Banknifty above 47824 could see fresh round of upside while support level comes at 45828. Approach on Technical: Market will be reacting to HDFCBANK result scheduled to be released on Saturday 20-Apr-24 and fresh geo-political development. We see indices have taken support Nifty @ 21710 & Banknifty @ 45828 to hold and fresh round of up move is expected once Nifty @ 22364 & Banknifty @ 47824 levels are crossed. Indices are likely to stay in range on Nifty 21936 to 22518 & Banknifty range seen between 46519 to 48295. Fundamental Insight 1) India's Trade Deficit Narrows To 11-Month Low At $15.6 Billion In March 2) IMF Raises India's FY25 GDP Growth Forecast To 6.8% Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy Geopolitical development, U.S. economic data and earnings season are key driver for market in coming weeks. Back home, IT companies came out with muted result and now focus will shift to result from Banking sector. HDFCBANK due to come out with result on 20-Apr-24 and Reliance will declare its earnings on 22-Apr-24. We remain optimistic and our strategy would be to accumulate gradually and bring exposure to as high as 90% over next few weeks. Any correction due to weak earnings or geo-political tension could be seen as buying opportunity with stock specific approach. We continue to like banking, infrastructure and defense sectors and any further decline in IT stocks will make them attractive to accumulate. We remain very optimistic with election result date that is 4-Jun-24. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆

Global Market – Geopolitical crisis – How to approach various asset class This week we will discuss geopolitical crisis after Israel fresh round of attach on Iran and immediate reaction by various asset classes. We will look back at Russia-Ukraine crisis in February 2022 and how various asset class reacted to it and how to approach this asset class. We would compare Israel and Russia and these countries are strong against their counter-part. U.S. and western countries were against Russia while they are supporting Israel in their conflict. Russia has large geographical are with major supplier of crude oil, natural gas, metal and food grains. Iran is one of the major crude oil suppliers to the world. Gold @ $2400 • Gold is considered as safe heaven and in any kind of geopolitical risk or uncertainty could trigger higher gold prices. • U.S. interest rate is also key factor for gold prices and gold prices has been rally from December on hope of interest rate in U.S. heading lower. WTI Crude oil @ $83 & Brent crude oil @ $87 • Russia has been major crude oil supplier and U.S. and western countries sanctioned Russia for its aggression against Ukraine. Iran is already sanctioned by U.S. and no major disruption in seen in crude oil supply. An armed conflict between Israel and Hamas-led Palestinian militant groups has been taking place chiefly in and around the Gaza Strip since 7 October 2023. It began when Hamas launched a surprise attack on southern Israel from the Gaza Strip. Israel-Iran conflict is seen as continuing conflict with Arab countries as Iran has supported Hamas from the beginning. Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion When we look back at the events and immediate reaction by market, we would realize that greater the fear could lead to great fall and that is the quantum of opportunity. Market has far more sharp correction reacting to Russia-Ukraine crisis then it has reacted to Israel-Iran conflict. The key reason for that is the major supply disruption it could cause will impact the global market. We expect market will continue to focus on inflation, interest rate, corporate earnings and economic data as much needed correction was triggered by geopolitical tension and higher inflation which could push back interest rate cut. Global market was expecting first interest rate cut in June 2024 which is now pushed back to September 2024. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆

HDFCBANK @ 1522 Result on 20-Apr-24 With reference to HDFCBANK result - we are more bullish on other private banks as compared to HDFCBANK. ICICIBANK, AXISBANK & SBIN (PSU) are top picks and expecting KOTAKBANK to play catchup rally. HDFCBANK - fresh view post result as management guided for 4 quarters to fully see effect of HDFCBANK - HDFC merger, which was effective from 1-Jul-23. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

BHARTIATL @ 1295 VI - FPO - close on 22-Apr-24 We expect further upside once VI - FPO closes on Monday. Good move seen from yesterday........can keep long with trailing SL. Positional view - we maintain bullish view Short term: We are expecting to test 1320 to 1330 level Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Geopolitical tension - Israel - Iran conflict With reference to market - we have instance of Russia-Ukraine crisis in recent history. It all started with rhetoric with U.S. or U.S. base news agency sounding alert as it is done today by ABC news. Here are some of the factors to watch out for 1) Crude oil - Brent above $95 to $100 - Negative impact of Indian market 2) IT result - failed to cheer the market - geopolitical tension could impact negatively in near term. Contrarian view: With medium term & positional view: Market correction by 9% from top could provide good bargain buying opportunity. Nifty @ 21848 & Banknifty @ 46788 & VIX @ 14.13 - Indices are approximately 4% down from recent high. Further 2% (that is 6% from high) & 5% (that is 9% from high) - could be used as bargain buying. As we have seen February 2022 fall due to Russia-Ukraine crisis has provided good entry opportunity. This opportunity may come in next 2 - 4 weeks. As first phase of voting for general election starts today - We see accumulation opportunity till 20th May 2024. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Yesterday 's post. Indices closing around important support level. We decided to review for any buying today..... 🔭🔭

Geopolitical tension- key trigger. Gift nifty down by 290 points. 😱😱

INFY - ADR recover from days low. IT stocks could be interesting to watch out tomorrow.

INFY - FY25 guidance - revenue growth of 1%-3% and operating margin of 20%-22% Strong large deal TCV of $4.5 billion in Q4 and record $17.7 billion in FY24 create robust foundation for growth Revenue growth guidance - Market was expecting 3% - 5% - Negative Operating margin guidance - 20% - 22% - In-line with market estimate - Neutral INFY ADR - down 6.26%

Nifty @ 21986 & Banknifty @ 47054 & VIX @ 13.25 According to us buy zone comes on Nifty @ 21945 - 21980 & Banknifty @ 46950 - 47062 - Posted in morning We see indices are near important support level................ Any review on fresh buying - to be preferred tomorrow...................we would avoid chasing bottom after today's market fall Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Nifty @ 22038 & Banknifty @ 47092 & VIX @ 13.32 Market at day's low - indicating weakness. INFY - Any play on result - prefer hedge position. In past - result reaction has given more than 5% move on closing basis - can prefer to play via hedge position / options. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Nifty @ 22101 & Banknifty @ 47298 & VIX @ 13.24 2nd round of selling seen - Profit booking Need to be watchful

Some wild swing in the Market ................ Some freak trade possible - Observation Increase in volatility............ Not judging this wild swings........for now

INFY @ 1440 We would be looking for revenue & margin guidance for FY24-25. Expectation - Revenue guidance 3% - 5% Margin guidance 20% - 22%. Positional view: Neutral weight with bullish view with medium term view Additional buy / long position: Review after result Play on result: Hedge position on long side preferred. INFY - reaction to result in INFY & other IT Stocks is more on INFY result & guidance compared to TCS. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg