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BANK NIFTY: WHAT’S THE PROBLEM? HDFC Bank in focus today, biggest component of Index FTSE to increase weight in 3 tranches instead of 1 Banking stocks have underperformed due to 4 reasons 1) Much more decline in NIMs than expected 2) Clear signs of slowdown in credit growth 3) Asset quality deterioration 4) Valuations slightly demanding now Avoid Bank Nifty trade till clarity emerges RBI monetary policy this week, direction may emerge on Thursday No long trade in Bank Nifty till it closes above 45,200 Too late to take a big short trade in Bank Nifty now NIFTY OUTLOOK Date  High  Low Aug 3  19537  19296 Aug 4  19538  19436 Aug 7  19620  19524 Nifty has now made higher high and higher low for 2 days Nifty yesterday closed above 20 DEMA and at 10 DEMA First resistance: 19,600-19,620 (10 DEMA and yesterday’s high) Bigger resistance: 19,680 (Options based) If 19,680 is crossed, a sharp move to 19,795 is possible First support: 19524-19,538 (Yesterday low and 20 DEMA) Bigger support: 19,436-19,296 (previous swing lows) Buy zone for today: 19,550-19,600 Add zone for today: 19,525-19,550 Strict stop loss for long trades: 19,500 Will look at short trade only if market weakens below 19,500   BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK Date  High  Low Aug 3  45038  44279 Aug 4  45118  44520 Aug 7  45011  44773 Bank Nifty making higher lows but highs are same 45,000-45,200 is very strong resistance for Bank Nifty 10 and 20 DEMA for Bank Nifty also placed around 45,150 Trade on Bank Nifty: Sell in 44,900-45,050 zone Stop loss for all trades on Bank Nifty: 45,166 Buy trade only on strength above 45,166, stop loss: 45,011 Can also buy Bank Nifty on dips around 44,600-44,700 Stop loss for this buy trade: 44,550 (Around 50 DEMA) Credit: Cnbc awaaz

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