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BANK NIFTY: WHAT’S THE PROBLEM?
HDFC Bank in focus today, biggest component of Index
FTSE to increase weight in 3 tranches instead of 1
Banking stocks have underperformed due to 4 reasons
1) Much more decline in NIMs than expected
2) Clear signs of slowdown in credit growth
3) Asset quality deterioration
4) Valuations slightly demanding now
Avoid Bank Nifty trade till clarity emerges
RBI monetary policy this week, direction may emerge on Thursday
No long trade in Bank Nifty till it closes above 45,200
Too late to take a big short trade in Bank Nifty now
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Date High Low
Aug 3 19537 19296
Aug 4 19538 19436
Aug 7 19620 19524
Nifty has now made higher high and higher low for 2 days
Nifty yesterday closed above 20 DEMA and at 10 DEMA
First resistance: 19,600-19,620 (10 DEMA and yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 19,680 (Options based)
If 19,680 is crossed, a sharp move to 19,795 is possible
First support: 19524-19,538 (Yesterday low and 20 DEMA)
Bigger support: 19,436-19,296 (previous swing lows)
Buy zone for today: 19,550-19,600
Add zone for today: 19,525-19,550
Strict stop loss for long trades: 19,500
Will look at short trade only if market weakens below 19,500
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Date High Low
Aug 3 45038 44279
Aug 4 45118 44520
Aug 7 45011 44773
Bank Nifty making higher lows but highs are same
45,000-45,200 is very strong resistance for Bank Nifty
10 and 20 DEMA for Bank Nifty also placed around 45,150
Trade on Bank Nifty: Sell in 44,900-45,050 zone
Stop loss for all trades on Bank Nifty: 45,166
Buy trade only on strength above 45,166, stop loss: 45,011
Can also buy Bank Nifty on dips around 44,600-44,700
Stop loss for this buy trade: 44,550 (Around 50 DEMA)
Credit: Cnbc awaaz
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