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Trading Psychology
Because expiry is on 28 July, avoid averaging losing option-buying positions. Gamma can make premiums double quickly, but it can also erase them just as fast. Institutions often wait for confirmation after the opening imbalance instead of chasing the first green candle. Boring discipline continues to outperform exciting regret.
Institutional Trading Plan
9:15-9:30
No trade.
9:30-10:00
Watch whether buyers defend the gap.
Above 23960
Bullish.
Below 23820
Bearish.
Between 23840-23950
Avoid directional trades.
Likely premium decay.
Observed Breakout Level
23960 - Closing Basis, - 24010/24060/24100
Failure Level 23920
Observed Breakdown Level
Wait.
Only if
23820 breaks with strong volume. Then 23770/720/680 Failure Level 23860
Institutional Market Structure
Resistance Zone
23930-23960
Very important.
If this breaks with volume:
Target becomes
23990
24040
24100
Support Zone
23820-23840
Below this,
23770
23720
become possible.
Global Market Assessment (26 Jul Overnight)
Positive Factors ✅
Gift Nifty indicates a strong positive opening.
No major weekend geopolitical escalation sufficient to create panic selling.
Stable USDINR is supportive for FII sentiment.
Oil is not indicating a fresh inflation shock.
Gold is not showing aggressive risk-off buying.
Neutral
MSCI flows remain stock-specific rather than broad index-negative.
US markets ended without major risk-off damage.
Overall Bias
Morning Bias: BULLISH
But...
A 170-point gap-up creates a high probability of:
Gap & Go (30%)
Gap Fill (40%)
Gap Up then Range (30%)
Institutional traders usually wait for the first 15-30 minutes instead of chasing the open.
I said in this video. 24K in breaks means... check the video at 3:50
Given the nearly 180-point negative Gift Nifty indication, patience is likely to be rewarded more than trying to catch the very first move. Institutions often use gap openings to trap impatient buyers and sellers before revealing the day's real direction.
Between 10–11 AM
Watch whether:
23800 is reclaimed
or 23650 breaks
This will likely decide the trend for the day.
Institutional Game Plan
Before 10 AM
High volatility expected.
Avoid chasing the first candle.
Bullish
Only above 23820 Close ==> 23920/24020/24100
Breakout Failure Level 23745
BEARISH
Only Below 23650 Close ==> 23580/23500/23420
Breakdown Failure 23720
