Yurta Capital

Just an observation: while all hell breaks loose in the tech trade (but yesterday was a pivot?!?) Oil is grinding higher because the war isn't over and XOM is up on a day of carnage.

The Yurta model portfolio gained 3.5% in October reaching USD 218,883.01 (including USD 49,357 in cash), up 118.8% since inception in 2023. Energy was the contributing factor during the month (PRB.a and EC) while Glass House Brands was a large detractor. Glass House has been a dumpster fire as the CEO has fired the CFO and head of IR for no valid reason. Management needs to change, but as cannabis goes S3, we may see an offer for a buyout before that happens. Over the coming days I'm watching First Tin closely as we get clarity on a formal buyout offer from MetalsX. This month I intend to add some Brazilian equities to the portfolio as well a potential fertilizer play. Though, staying in cash, with Trump likely to go all-in on Iran post mid-terms, cash doesn't feel like a terrible place to be right now as well.

An IPO near the top of the market, but tokenization is something I've been interested in since 2020. It will be interesting to see how Tzero ramps up revenue generation. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/11/01/tokenization-firm-tzero-plans-to-go-public-in-usd350-million-spac-deal

Oil up, bonds slightly up, USD DOWN, gold down. The next few weeks will be interesting. US mid-terms next Tuesday. Iran oil blockade not ending. Ukraine hitting Russian energy infrastructure again. It increasingly feels like 20% lower in the market and gold closer to $3,500 that we print, to save the system, into an inflationary shock. Ugly times.

First Tin is an LSE listed company I've owned for roughly a year and have been adding to this past week. They have a near surface, low strip tin asset in Australia waiting for its final permits to be issued imminently (with potential financial backing from the US gov't), as well as a tin and rare earth asset in Germany. In anticipation of the permit issuance, Metals X (ASX listed) which owns 30% of 1sn on 9th October made a proposal to buy the company for 15 pence a share (now trading at 13 pence). Metals X has until 6th November to announce it has a firm intention to make an offer to the company, or not. I value the company in the 25 to 40 pence range, and thus look at buying further shares down here as relatively low risk. Either MetalsX "steals" the company at a very low price (15.3% upside from here and an easy win for new investors) OR the offer is rejected, the final permits roll in from the Aussie's and 1sn re-rates higher. I'm intrigued by the set-up as it feels like a "no-lose situation". Of course, I would like to offer to be rejected as I think it's wildly undervalued. 🚨This is not investment advice. Please do your own DD if you're interested in the company. https://www.londonstockexchange.com/en/quote/equity/1SN/first-tin-plc

Martin, the author of The Frontier Viking Substack is probably the best writer on global frontier markets I've come across. We got connected a few months ago via a Yurta follower (thank you Oliver) and had the chance to meet in Tashkent in September. Thereafter, we had a conversation about Uzbekistan and broader frontier markets. If you don't yet follow his work, I highly suggest you do. https://frontierviking.substack.com/p/where-interactive-brokers-doesnt

Picture a market that has a Socialist president. Equity prices have started to tick up due to expectations for a right winger to win in the elections, and he gets displaced by a Supreme Court extension for voting hours at the last minute. The Socialist incumbent wins. Equity prices fall 20%-40%. 4 more years of Lula. Welcome to 🇧🇷. Is this a buy? Probably. Gaps needed to be filled anyways and most charts have gaps from when Bolsonaro was the preliminary. PBR/a, BOLSY are the interesting ones. BOLSY only if it gets cheap enough. PBR/a continues to discover new basins, is expanding abroad, and is growing production in a world of peaking output due to underinvestment. The open today will be interesting to say the least.

Uranium has been a rough trade since 2022 as it became part of the AI trade and therefore a trading/momentum sardine. Further, most uranium companies became wildly overvalued and had production issues as they ramped. We nailed it back in 2018/2019 and bought aggressively into covid. Miners were trading at fractions of NAV. Today the trade isn't as asymmetric but it has gotten attractive again as the AI bros are puking the stocks. Meanwhile long term prices are above spot, at $96.50. URNJ is down 33% YTD and 59% from its January high of $40.81. The risk/reward is getting attractive for a mean reversion play. Further, as investors increasingly wake up to our global energy shortage, we will be lightening up on oil exposure to rotate into unloved areas of energy, like uranium.

As I said before summer, gold is going lower. If we get into the $3,800-3,250 buy zone it will be a gift for the money printing that will follow. Bullion and decently well run depressed juniors with projects trading at steep discounts to NAV will be my play.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/10/08/will-bonds-blow-up The Economist cover is appropriate timing as global yields go crazy. Nothing goes up in a straight line and it feels like we are getting closer to wanting to buy interest rate sensitive securities.

The Yurta model portfolio had a slight dip in September, reaching USD 211,358.8 (including USD 49,357 in cash), up 111.3% since inception in 2023. That's a 15.13% total return per annum. During September we added a small sum to Keo Capital and otherwise remained quiet. The market is facing a headwind of higher yields, a stronger USD, and uncertainty around the Fed (I don't imagine many more, if any rate hikes). Breadth remains terrible and tech/AI continues to force the market higher. It continues to feel like much is broken. While I've said that for months now, the goal is to have the cash buffer to benefit when things fall precipitously, rather than always being fully invested. Boring it is, but it's part of the job! Once the market realizes the Fed is done (and set to lower rates) I think there will be a big opportunity in rate sensitive plays, specifically housing (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and some niche mortgage service companies).

Brazil was impressive with the move to the right with this weekends election. And the strong double digit moves in Brazilian equities yesterday. Now we wait for the runoff on 25th October. Regarding names I'd buy on a pullback and add to the model portfolio are: The Brazilian Stock Exchange (BOLSY) and the MSCI Brazil small caps ETF (EWZS) Keep it simple. Small caps will perform after a decade and a half downtrend and the exchange will benefit from more volume and foreign capital inflows.

Gold is breaking down. The USD remains strong. Oil may be getting through Hormuz but Saudi energy infrastructure keeps getting hit and Trump doesn't know how to back down..post mid terms will be interesting...so food and enegy importers will keep selling assets to get USD to buy food and energy. How long this lasts I have no clue, but something will have to be done to bring bond yields in check (even though they are going much higher longer term). I will put out the Yurta portfolio update in a day or two, but it just feels like there are so many cross currents, nothing is particularly cheap and sitting in wait is the beat strategy. Commodities companies are still attractive and I like Brazil as previously stated. But we have elections this weekend and then likely a runoff as it's unlikely anyone wins majority vote. South America is interesting because it produces food. And I'm seeing increasing stress in fertilizer and grain markets. Everyone is giddy enegy and metals. Very few are talking food..I think this is the next inflation wave spark. Will revolutions come with it?

For anyone travelling through Central Asia Kyrgyzstan is a useful visit to see a baseline economy. There are some things happening here which could make it an interesting financial services hub for private business.

As I've said since the Iran war started, it's not getting resolved soon. That made me lighten up and discuss in some interviews that gold was going lower. I remember 2008 well where oversold meant nothing. We had a nice gold bounce the past few months as the reality of a rate hike set in. Now we have energy restrictions re emerging. Gold will be sold by developing markets for hard currency to buy food and energy. It will be a,gift to buy it from them sub 3k as I've stated previously. In the meantime, the fertilizer and broader ag complex remains interesting as higher energy prices mean higher food prices.

The oil market bottlenecks in the Gulf aren't going to be resolved soon. Diesel prices are at ATH which means refined product importing countries will get hurt badly..diesel and ferts are life, more or less. This was my thesis when the war started. Now it's coming home to roost after SPRs have been drained and excess inventory mopped up. As this reality comes into focus over the coming weeks and months my increasing focus is once the world finally panics on this matter, when gets hurt the most which then becomes attractive to move into, where valuations get extremely depressed? Bonds? Real estate? Consumer manufacturing companies with exposure to Frontier and emerging markets? (Uzbekistan should be just fine amid all this courtesy of decades of import substitution, so long as Russia doesn't blanket ban refined product exports..they have localized fertilizer production and God's given gift of an abundance of gold to buy what they need). I'm keeping a general eye out but if anyone has specific ideas, feel free to reach out @Adventureinvestor

It will be interesting to see how hard oil rips into the US mid terms. Iran has a big incentive after 6m of forcing US to draw barrels from the SPR. Meanwhile we remain long Ecopetrol and Petrobras, as well as Keo Capital which we may add to. See the South American bias away from the increasing middle east intensity. For those here a while, I said years ago we were in a new world of balkanization, away from globalization. This has happened in parallel with what I hate to say is a new WW. If one thinks Ukraine and Iran and now Yemen are different wars, they are wrong. This is all connected and will unfortunately likely only intensify, accelerating balkanization and driving inefficiency in global supply chains. That means rising demand for real assets - exactly how the model portfolio is positioned.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the mortgage housing giants in USA which were nationalized as a result of government imprudence in 2008, approving garbage bonds that led to the financial meltdown. The companies were put into conservstorship and have been rebuilding their capital bases since the GFC. Things have been getting interesting as Trump over the years has hinted at releasing them from conservstorship and raising fresh capital. Bill Pulte is the head of the FHFA and is tasked with overseeing the future of these entities and is likely in place to re-privatize them. These are amazing businesses and screaming cheap, but the government has warrants to purchase 79.9% of FNMA at effectively zero cost. This is the overhang...dilution risk. What's interesting to me is if they are released from conservstorship, they could be a $30-$50 stocks. Currently trading at FNMA: $5.74 FMCC $5.11. The upside is obvious and the downside is aggressive government dilution and a capital raise but I think today's share prices reflects only moderate downside. So you're looking at a rough floor in todays prices and potential 6-10x upside on American housing and the companies are growing double digits while trading at single digit P/Es with strong ROE. 🚨 I own shares in both companies at a 2.5% weight. There's dilution risk, but that's variable if it happens at all, depending on whether the government takes full benefit of its warrants, and the upside is significant. The only issue is time, but that's the case with many investments I have. Patience is required for multi-bagger returns.

The Yurta model portfolio had a nice rebound in August $212,050.99 (including USD 54,358.8 in cash), up 112.% since inception in 2023. That's a 15.63% total return per annum. During August I did nothing portfolio wise. But on August 3rd added Keo Capital to the portfolio with a weight of 2.5%. Their Venezuela energy spinoff didn't happen because the valuation of the asset increased as Keo's stake is set to increase to 49%, tenure extended 20 years to 2056, and associated gas will be included, which Keo thinks could be worth more than the oil as it's liquids rich. Venezuela is opening and there are few ways to play it.