Yurta Capital

I forgot to mention that there's a reason Venezuela was targeted first. It's not huge oil supply, but it's steady and growing heavy oil supply that US refineries need. It's also part of the greater LatAm Plan to bring the hemisphere into America's orbit.

As I've mentioned on Twitter a week ago, I find it entertaining that people think there will still be a peace deal, especially as war is heating back up. The US benefits from Hormuz being closed. The rest of the world suffers. Now a thought exercise: What if... 1) Hormuz remains shut indefinitely and ~10mbd disappears from global markets 2) Global shortages ensue and sure you probably get protests, forced rationing etc 3) The kicker could be what Trump really wants...to hollow out the rest of the EU manufacturing base and force factories in Southeast Asia to relocate to US as nearly the entire continent is short of energy and bam! America reindustrializes. 4) In the process countries sell treasuries to buy commodities and support currencies. This weakens the USD, exactly as Trump wants. 5) At some point YCC is implemented and the USD falls further, ensuring US exports are competitive. It's at least not outside the realm of possibility with where we are and where we will likely be in a year. And it's a lot more likely than Hormuz opening over summer. Time will tell. Stay nimble.

For anyone looking to get some Venezuela exposure, Apertura Energy on the LSE is an interesting play. GBP 21 mil market cap, Jonathan Hufford is a significant shareholder and David Williams, Founder of Marwyn Capital owns ~35%. They are looking to do a transaction in the Venezuelan energy complex. If successful, it would likely be the cleanest way to get Venezuela exposure. 🚨 Disclaimer: I have no position in the name. Just watching as it reminds me of the ways to get Myanmar exposure 15 years ago as the country opened up. Do your own due diligence.

We've now reached that part of the war where fake news loses it's effect on oil prices. And it's finally time for all eyes on the bab el mandeb strait! Summer is going to get spicy 🌶

The Yurta model portfolio hit a new ATH during May at $206,463.51, up 13.18% YTD and 106.4% since inception in January 2023, while retaining $59,358.8 cash. The portfolio's total return is 19.03% p/a since inception. One trade was made during the month, a 5% allocation to the Uzbekistan National Investment Fund listed in London. I look at this simply a safe way to deploy some cash to an undervalued Uzbek vehicle that should grind higher over time, though there are definitely better ways to get Uzbek exposure via local listed equities.

When reality hits it is going to get interesting, and devastating for many. We remain positioned in some oil and gas names and ample cash. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/oil-inventory-exxon-strait-hormuz-iran-war.html

When your Mongolian stock broker is writing you to participate in the SpaceX offering, you know what part of the cycle we are in.

An observation: The Brent oil price was $109 24-hrs ago, got taken to the woodshed down to just under $104 and is now ripping higher, back to $109! Yesterday someone took out yet another put position on crude and then we have more peace talk, on the back of the US EIA reporting a 17.8 million barrel crude draw, the largest in the country's history. We've lost 120 million barrels globally in the last 2 weeks. I highlight this not because it's news anymore, but because every time there has been a "source" talking peace potential and oil has tanked, each time the price rebounds faster and faster. Now we are at 24hrs recovery time. At some point as we keep drawing global inventory either price will respond and things will get ugly (in everyday life and the bond and equity markets) or we just fall into the latter with no price response. As I mentioned, I've a small position in WTI and Brent call options, but today I wouldn't put a new position on. Cash otherwise continues to feel like a comfortable place to be. Patience.

To my point on this, listening to an interview with Jeff Currie, he put my argument for owning pounds in the ground rather than operating assets eloquently "Almost all commodities are nothing other than dirt and diesel. So, if you're out of diesel you've got a problem...with everything".

Recently I was asked why I'm bullish commodity companies with quality projects and good resource in the ground, especially relative to NPV, when I see the obvious tidal wave of global shortages coming, sulphuric acid among others? For exactly the reason I want resource in the ground and not production. I don't exposure to the chaos that is already rearing its head in global supply chains and where active miners will see cost blowouts. Craig Tindale wrote a great piece on the knock-on effects of acid shortages (link below). Owning high quality projects which can be exploited when the world normalizes (likely not for many, many months) feels the safer bet. These projects will benefit from adjusted cost curves in metals where structurally higher prices are likely, on the back of the current emerging inflationary impulse. I plan to be primarily adding companies with base and critical metals assets (tin, tungsten, copper, iron ore, etc.), especially if we get a very rough risk off as the world wakes up to the shortages which are coming. This will make market caps to NPV more attractive. For the time being its largely a process of keeping cash and sitting tight, building my shopping list and waiting to benefit from the likely coming asymmetric setups in these areas. https://ctindale.substack.com/p/the-global-reagent-squeeze-supply

https://youtu.be/32w6chUNnqM?is=ooUO1ebD7p17RY9e I had a catch up yesterday with my friend, John Polomny who I've known since my Mongolia days from 2012. We talked the New Fertile Crescent region and Uzbekistan more specifically.

The cannabis story has been all about positioning for the "Unlock". Interstate commerce and exports. Based on Glass House Brands call we are looking at this hopefully happening late Q3 into Q4. Hemp being produced at ~$110/lb and sold north of $500 (to be conservative) you do the math. Multi baggers take patience. Still a few more years but the "unlock" is near. The 10% share price move this morning is a small piece of what is hopefully to come.

The cannabis story has all about positioning for the "Unlock". Interstate commerce and exports. Based on Glass House Brands call we are looking at this hopefully happening late Q3 into Q4. Hemp being produced at ~$110/lb and sold north of $500 (to be conservative) you do the math. Multi baggers take patience. Still a few more years but the "unlock" is near. The 10% share price move this morning is a small piece of what is hopefully to come.

As the Strait of Hormuz remains shut and the world continues losing ~10mbd of oil supply to production heaven, the second order effects are growing in scale. It's obvious that food production will be heavily affected due to rising input costs, and the bottom 40%? 50%? 60%? of the world's population will face some type of calorie deficit later in the year. This study by North Dakota State University does a good job of laying out how this crisis could be far worse than 2022 even if nominal fertilizer prices don't spike to the same levels. We also have a sulfuric acid shortage which compounds the dire situation. https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/04/strait-of-hormuz-disruption-scenarios-and-fertilizer-purchasing-risks-for-u-s-crop-producers.html

Uzbekistan is set to IPO a state-owned enterprise holding company, with 13 companies in it, on the London and Tashkent Stock exchanges later this month. It will effectively have everything but mining in it (so no gold, copper, uranium unfortunately) and is therefore a relatively good proxy for a decent part of the economy (the AFC Uzbekistan Fund is better IMHO, but I'm biased as its CIO), both of which are largely uncorrelated with the rest of the world. The offering is occurring at a 30% discount to NAV. Once it starts trading, if it doesn't move too far too fast, I may consider an allocation to the model portfolio as I predict the NAV to grind higher 15%-20% per year in the initial few years with relative ease. 🚨None of the above is to be taken as investment advice. I am extremely biased on this specifically. Please do your own due diligence. https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/state-fund-ipo-opens-door-to-buy-into-uzbekistans-growth-story

So, oil is the proverbial beach ball that can't be held underwater. News again of a potential conclusion to the Iran war smashed down prices $10 at one point today, only to be in the process of rebounding. How dumb an algo or investor has to be to think a news snippet from Axios with minimal substance justifies a 500 point rally in the market and "risk back on" is beyond me. But as I've said, with all the manipulation in the market, now is a good time to go to the beach as the screens continue to show delusion in the market. The strait still isn't opened and that's all that matters. So, again on the puke I took the liberty of buying some Brent crude Dec 2026 $100 call options as a hedge. It's a few basis points of my book, not the model portfolio and that's not investment advice! High cash levels and being patient as most of the markets low hanging fruit is gone, is key to being able to take advantage of the situaton when the market returns to a point of asymmetry aplenty.

The Yurta model portfolio hit a new ATH during April, even as the large cash buffer raised in March remained untouched. With 34% cash ($69,533.80), total portfolio value is now USD 204,552.33, up 104.5% since inception in January 2023. The portfolio's total return is 18.89% p/a since inception. Something on my mind of late is the potential for the USA to enact a partial petroleum export ban as the energy crisis worsens. It would devastate Europe and Asia, but just as happened with the Ukraine conflict as Europe's manufacturing base hallowed out and relocated to USA where cheap energy is, this would be an accelerant. Few are talking about the odds and a few friends and I have been bouncing around the idea and how to position. Then, yesterday a friend sent me the below article which puts some more puzzle pieces together. Food for thought as the most still are complacent to the energy crisis we are in. https://richardmedhurst.substack.com/p/how-the-us-pulled-off-an-armed-robbery

I caught up with my mate Ladislas of the Wandering Investor last week mid hike in Montenegro. As I've said, stepping away from the screens and waiting for the market to catch up to reality is a sound strategy. There really hasn't been a lot to do here and I remain convinced that for the foreseeable future a high cash buffer position is the optionalitiy you want, for the market is still priced as if there was no war, oil shortages, and no likely coming food shortages. Hence the crickets on this channel as of late. Sitting on one's hands is hard work!

And so we progress https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxd0xxp0jko