Finance with Viru Bhai 📈₹

Market View: Cautiously Constructive Brent Crude is now around $90 and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased. Surprisingly, markets are still holding up well. That itself shows underlying strength. However, this is a time to be slightly more cautious on macros while remaining constructive on equities. Negative Factors 1. Rising Crude & Middle East Tensions Brent moving towards $90 is definitely a concern. Higher crude impacts inflation, India's import bill and fiscal outlook. Geopolitical headlines can create short-term volatility. That said, 70-80% of these headlines end up being noise or political negotiations (especially involving Trump). Hence, avoid reacting emotionally to every news headline. 2. Mid & Small Caps Are Expensive Valuations are certainly on the higher side. But valuation alone has not been a reason for markets to correct over the last two years. If a company delivers strong earnings and guidance, quality stocks can continue to outperform despite expensive valuations. Therefore, I will continue to follow Earnings → Price Trend → Strict Trailing Stop Loss (TSL) rather than simply avoiding the entire space. Positive Factors 1. Anti-AI Trade / FII Positioning Initial signs of FII short covering are visible. Not yet enough to become aggressively bullish, but it is an encouraging development. More importantly, the intensity of FII selling has reduced significantly compared to earlier months. Trading Plan & Action At this stage, the objective is not to own more stocks, but to own better stocks. Focus only on high-conviction ideas. Increase allocation only where conviction is strong. Keep strict trailing stop losses. Exit positions where conviction is low or where the original investment thesis is no longer valid. Avoid HOS (Hope-based) trades and positions where information or visibility is incomplete. Keep the portfolio concentrated rather than spreading capital across too many names. Market Observation During April and May, many stocks rallied simply because of liquidity and institutional buying ("isne liya, usne liya" kind of market). Since June, that strategy has stopped working consistently. Going forward, earnings will become the biggest differentiator. Companies delivering: Strong quarterly numbers, Better-than-expected guidance, Healthy order books, Margin expansion, are likely to continue outperforming, while weaker businesses may struggle. Portfolio Positioning Current preference remains: Pharma – Maintain meaningful exposure. Private Banks – Especially ICICI Bank. Select NBFCs. Exposure to the broader market through quality businesses with strong earnings visibility. Final View Overall, I remain constructive on the market, but with higher respect for macro risks. This is not the phase to chase every breakout. The best strategy is: Manage risk aggressively. Hold fewer but higher-conviction positions. Allocate meaningful capital to your best ideas. Let winners run with strict trailing stop losses. Allow earnings not liquidity to drive portfolio returns.