Crypto Narratives

90% chance that Strategy has bought BTC last week according to Polymarket...

I'm open to a doomsday scenario but what's the actual plan to take Saylor out? Are we expecting BTC to go to $15k and remain there for 3 years?

Let's say BTC goes to $30k, and Saylor increases the STRC dividend rate to 14% Then his annual dividend burden would be around $2bn per year, and his BTC stack would be worth $25bn He can deplete his BTC treasury by 8% over one year to pay the divs, if BTC stays flat at $30k

Best announcement Saylor could do on Monday is that they sold $5bn of BTC for cash this week The problem is that I think it's quite likely they didn't sell any bitcoin

Fullporting the strongest coin is great until it takes a -60% nosedive in a day Be very careful with reckless risk management, even if CT romanticizes these trades You want to be a cockroach in this market, not a hero (In the very short-term, ZEC could very well keep punishing late shorts though, both sides have a case)

I get the "the single largest buyer in the market is going from $2bn buy pressure a month to $200M sell pressure a month" shock, but once this gets priced in, we're not supposed to price that in each month There's no liquidation level for Saylor like there was for 3AC

There's often one coin that completely refuses to go down even when the market is collapsing It seems to be $WLD this time (??) On the November dump it was $ZEC and $STRK, and on the February dump it was $HYPE

Current PA reminds me of the late Jan - early Feb move Just down only with zero bounce

What is most likely going to happen with $STRC: - It's going to keep dumping with BTC until BTC finds a bottom, at which point it's going to bottom too. Maybe around $90, maybe here if BTC doesn't move further down (hmm) - Once BTC bounces again, STRC will bounce too as people will play the "repeg trade". - The dividend rate is likely to be increased, because the 30-day VWAP will probably be below $99. - STRC might take some time to get back to par, but once BTC finds a bottom and people realize the dividend will get paid, it should have a magnet towards $100. - If the mNAV remains below 1.22x, Strategy will have to sell either $MSTR shares or $BTC to fund the monthly dividend payments. They would sell BTC only if mNAV is below 1.22x. They have been selling MSTR shares every month since STRC inception to pay the dividends, so that's really nothing new (!) - The current dividend burden is $1.7bn annually, corresponding to less than $150M a month. Let's say this goes to $200M a month in case they raise the dividend rate a lot. So this means that in the worst case scenario, we would have $200M sell pressure a month on BTC... which is a drop in the bucket. The market is freaking out about a sub $200M monthly sell pressure, this looks like a wild overreaction to me. As a reference, the German government sold around $3bn worth of BTC in less than a month during the summer of 2024... (That being said, the pronounced relative weakness of BTC relative to stocks is more concerning and makes the dip buying much less straightforward here)

Top blasting AI stocks feels much more comfortable than top blasting altcoins because their drawdown is vastly smaller Worst case scenario they have a small correction or they consolidate Whereas an alt can just go down -80% in 3 months if you buy a local top ("things you read at the top of the multi-year AI bubble" huh yeah this kind of reasoning can sound scary, but I'm pretty sure the AI bubble is far from over here, so I’ll keep playing…)

Aaaand it's a wrap $LAB

$LAB is now trading at $22bn FDV and -21500% annualized funding rate …

$STRC closer to $90 feels safer for marking a local bottom on BTC Actually you could really use $STRC as a way to gauge how close to max fear the market locally is

The market clearly seems to want to put Saylor in discomfort at least, meaning mNAV below 1.2x and the next dividend payment should be fully paid with BTC sales + probably depegged STRC for a while (there's appetite to test STRC downside again)

My basket of AI stocks: MU SNDK ARM NBIS MRVL INTC CRWV Just a copium hedge for my crypto portfolio, and I guess over time I'm going to increase the equities portion of my portfolio...

It's crazy that some alts are basically flat while $BTC is taking a nosedive

People are trying to sell their locked tokens at $1-$1.5 while $LAB is currently trading at $19 They can't hedge their locked tokens because there's a risk that they will be bleeding on very highly negative funding rate for days And no one wants to buy $LAB even at $1.5 because everyone knows that when they pull the rug, the coin can collapse back down to $0.5 in just a few days