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频道帖子
Re: Resetting Xbox
At some point, the games industry decided it wanted to be interactive Hollywood, and the consequences are entirely predictable. Meanwhile, Nintendo just quietly shipped 3.8 million units of Tomodachi Life in two weeks, and 4 million of Pokopia in five. They're making actual games. Sony's obsession with prestige cinematic bloat, like Xbox, has also put them in a slow-motion death spiral that's going to become painfully obvious in a few years.
speak_plainly, 8 hours ago
| 2 | Re: Road to Elm 1.0
I think of Elm more as an incredibly influential research language these days.
It's very focused, there's no public roadmap or official support and the leadership (which is far as I can tell is just Evan) is uninterested in most (any?) community building or core team building.
But MAN is it nice to work in. This has resulted in several forks/spin-offs. At the recent Gleam conference, Louis Pilfold joked that every Elm user maintains their own compiler :). There are at least 6 of them (two more got announced in the last month, even as the community keeps shrinking).
So I'm glad Evan is now working towards 1.0. Maybe folks can call Elm "finished" and one of the successors can do the hard work of unifying some of the forks and growing the community.
Personally, the next time I'm looking for an Elm-like thing, I'm going to check out Gleam + Lustre. Seems to have a nice mix of maintainers that care about community and design. And it works on frontend + backend!
bbkane, 8 hours ago | 133 |
| 3 | Re: Resetting Xbox
150M at 5B revenue is not great: that's 3% margin!
The bigger issue is that console manufacturer revenue is highly cyclical. This is hard to see in e.g. Xbox and Sony since they are both part of a larger conglomerate, but really obvious for nintendo.
You generally have a cycle of
- "Launch": high marketing costs, low/negative HW margins
- "Mid-cycle": lowering manufacturing costs, large game sales, high margin DLCs
- "end-of-cycle": falling HW sales, fewer exclusives (-> preparation for next gen), fewer consumers (-> waiting for next gen). Here you usually have maximum profits since you don't subsidize HW and marketing is minimal (platforms are already locked in)
Generally you have to establish a big userbase during the mid-cycle such that you can levarage it during the late-cycle to be able to afford next-gen. Xbox has the big issue that their mid-cycle was catastrophic, which means they now don't have the console base to get into the next generation:
If they have 3% margin _right now_ in the end-of-cycle where marketing and development costs are at their lowest, this does not bode well for the overall health of the business.
mattalex, 3 hours ago | 127 |
| 4 | Re: Should DayQuil Be Legal?
The article kinda glossed over it, but one fact under-appreciated by the general public is just how dangerous acetaminophen overdoses can be.
Scientists often talk about the "therapeutic index" or "safety ratio" of a drug. It's the LD50 (dose at which 50% of recipients die) divided by the effective dose. Common hard drugs like heroin or methamphetamine have a safety ratio of about 6-10 [1]. "Soft" drugs like marijuana or LSD often have safety ratios of about 1000.
The safety ratio of acetaminophen is under 4. A typical dosing schedule for an adult is 4-6 500mg tablets within a 24 hour period [2], for a total of no more than 3g. 7g of acetaminophen can kill you, and 12g is likely to [3]. Acetaminophen is the leading cause of liver failure in the U.S, causing 50% of cases and 20% of transplants.
When they tell you "don't exceed 6 doses daily", they really mean it, and it's across all acetaminophen-containing products. The margin for error is narrower than heroin.
[1] http://politicsofsin.50megs.com/risk/Toxicity.Comparison_Add...
[2] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3585765/
[3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK441917/
nostrademons, 4 hours ago | 121 |
| 5 | Re: Resetting Xbox
It was pretty rich seeing armchair video game industry analysts act like the new CEO was gonna usher in a new age for Microsoft's gaming division because she got to announce the updated logo and some games that would have obviously been in development long before she became CEO.
Microsoft is never going to figure out gaming. It's more art than engineering and they can barely manage the engineering with all the intervention from marketing and HR in their products.
To me it's mostly unfortunate that this has left PlayStation with no direct competition because they've noticed and leaned into the not-giving-a-shit attitude after they had such a great console generation with the PS4. It's kinda crazy that we're already almost due for a new console generation and there's very little appetite for new consoles after this generation where it feels like it barely got started. And between graphics almost certainly at the point of diminishing returns, and hardware prices like they are right now, I can't imagine there's a market to sell something more capable than current gen consoles. The industry is in a very strange state.
hbn, 5 hours ago | 290 |
| 6 | Re: Anthropic's Method to Losing Goodwill in a Few Easy Steps
They're subsidizing their tokens as long as you use their software. That's a fair exchange, I never understood why people took issue with it.
If you don't want to get locked in to Claude Code, you can pay more. Just like you can pay more for an unlocked non-carrier subsidized phone. (Which I personally do.)
internet2000, 6 hours ago | 368 |
| 7 | Re: Resetting Xbox
It is neither possible nor desirable to own every great independent studio. We have also learned that we are not the best home for every type of studio
This is shockingly self-aware for microsoft
athorax, 5 hours ago | 391 |
| 8 | Re: What Emily Bender meant by "stochastic parrots"
> in part because Google fired two of the authors, Timnit Gebru
I remember being angry about this situation when I first saw it on social media, until I read the details: This person submitted a list of demands to her employer and said that if they weren’t met, she quit. Google wasn’t going to meet her demands so they considered it acceptance of her resignation. There has been a movement trying to debate whether it was a firing or resignation ever since.
The original paper they published gets recirculated every year or two as some landmark history of AI safety, but as other commenters have noted it wasn’t really a great paper nor was it groundbreaking at the time. If not for the controversy surrounding the resignation/firing (depending on your POV), I don’t think it would have been notable.
Aurornis, 3 hours ago | 408 |
| 9 | Re: Resetting Xbox
This is a total mess IMHO.
- The make around 5 billion in revenue per quarter
- The problem according to them is profit margin - around 150-160 million
So first of all, they are big! Secondly they are not at a loss. They just have a "thin, non-growing margin". So to fix all this they are trimming down, so they can "return to growth" (which I think is ridiculous).
Some points -
- They are huge business even now - 5 billion per quarter revenue is no joke
- They did not have to buy all those studios
- They looked at Netflix, and wanted the sweet monthly subscription cash stream
- Then they did not have to give away popular games day one on Game Pass
- And finally, they did not have to raise Game Pass prices to improve the profit margins. Of course, consumers pulled out.
- Once again, short term vision, crazy decisions, bad spending spree and a constant need to "make numbers go up" and who has to pay for all this?
rockyj, 3 hours ago | 391 |
| 10 | Re: How Kalshi Infects the News
The unprecedented era of gambling on literally everything everywhere is an absolute cancer on society, made completely legal by absolute greed and degeneracy at the highest levels of government. I don't know how we put this genie back in the bottle (amongst many detrimental genies).
baggachipz, 1 hour ago | 469 |
| 11 | Re: Nintendo announces new product revisions in Europe with replaceable batteries
"There is no difference in functionality between current products and revised products containing user-replaceable batteries."
So there was nothing "limiting" them from making it already with user-replaceable batteries, they just didn't care enough until EU forced them (like all the smartphone brands). Love EU.
mdrzn, 1 hour ago | 514 |
| 12 | Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
Who cares what Zuckerberg says about AI agents? He is a PHP developer from the early '00s who got lucky with Facebook. He's not an AI scientist or an AI researcher. What authority does he have to speak on the future of AI agents? Morale at his company is at an ATL, and that says more about his leadership skills he'd better off focusing on, otherwise the agents might replace him soon.
andreygrehov, 3 hours ago | 535 |
| 13 | Re: Has_not_been_viewed_much
I used to borrow the books which had "to be disposed if not lent in the next 3 months" slip in them. Never regretted reading them. The best one included a very odd short story by Flann OBrien about a carpenter who walls himself inside the oak panelling of a build he is working on, and a woman convinced Sago farming will cure Ireland's famine.
ggm, 12 hours ago | 545 |
| 14 | Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
The thing is: I could produce 2-3 times as much code as before _without_ an LLM, if I didn't care about my colleagues' ability to review my output properly.
Lines of code are a liability, not an asset. You want as few of them as you can get away with, without compromising the actual asset: the functionality.
A huge part of the job of Software Engineering is producing the right amount of code at the right time.
andrewaylett, 4 hours ago | 538 |
| 15 | Re: When AI Costs More Than the Engineer
Garbage. You can't include training by the companies that develop an llm in the comparison against companies that merely use the same llm. Apples and potatoes.
geon, 2 hours ago | 572 |
| 16 | Re: Building relationships with customers through support didn't turn out as hoped
I know this isn’t a very interesting comment, but just to provide some balance to the mostly negative comments I’m seeing:
It’s interesting that you did the experiment, and I appreciate you sharing your results. It all seems reasonable, even if a bit depressing.
ikawe, 6 hours ago | 578 |
| 17 | Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
Zuckerberg is proof you only need to get really lucky once. He's basically flailed at leading facebook ever since, going all in on monumentally dumb bets and erratically making headcount and project decisions, and still he somehow keeps getting richer.
SwellJoe, 3 hours ago | 613 |
| 18 | Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex
I'm working in large US corporation.
And I see that I already have access to 5.6-Sol Ultra on my corporate account.
I haven't really used it yet.
2 months ago management was showing us scoreboards, praising leaders who used most tokens.
Last few weeks, we're getting weekly emails, telling us that whenever we can - we should use cheaper models, and that we should watch the page which shows our tokens usage.
throw394042, 7 hours ago | 606 |
| 19 | Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
The gap between "useful chatbot" and "useful agent" is way bigger than people realize. A chatbot can be wrong 10% of the time and still help you. An agent that's wrong 10% of the time is sending bad emails and making wrong API calls with no one checking.
vishalkundar, 14 hours ago | 596 |
| 20 | Re: The future of Flipper Zero development
It’s definitely a meme if nothing else that the cybersecurity community has a distribution of furries that would not reflect the general population’s.
dimbletimbers, 6 hours ago | 667 |
