Coin Post – Money, Investments, Bitcoin

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's bull-score indicator jumped from 30 to 80 in a week, signaling the start of a new bull market phase. Waiting on it... 🔥

🤖 By 2033, global electricity demand driven by AI advancements will reach a record level of ~315 gigawatts – an increase of +1,100% compared to 2025. Even without such rapid AI growth, the world still needs data centers for everything we currently have and will have in the future. Keeping an eye on energy companies... 💡

🏭 The global economy is undergoing a fundamental structural shift. The last 30 years (from 1990 to 2020) were defined by disinflationary trends, but we are now entering an era of high inflation, increased price volatility, and long-term interest rate hikes. I came across an interesting interview with Lacy Hunt – one of the most distinguished living macroeconomists and a former Fed economist. Here are the key takeaways you need to know:

1️⃣ Why are store prices continuing to rise and won't come back down? For the past 30 years, we lived in a uniquely cheap world thanks to China's integration into global trade. Corporations built factories where labor cost pennies, driving down the cost of everything from T-shirts to smartphones. That era is officially over. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the world is fragmenting into opposing blocs. Manufacturing is being rushed back to expensive Western countries, and instead of relying on efficient "just-in-time" logistics, companies are forced to stockpile inventory "just in case." Expensive labor and severed supply chains will serve as a powerful engine for inflation for decades to come.

2️⃣ What about Artificial Intelligence? Won't technology make everything cheaper? Many hope that AI will replace workers, boost productivity, and make goods dirt cheap. That is a dangerous illusion. Right now, the AI revolution requires colossal physical resources: energy, chips, new data centers, and tons of copper. AI is burning through massive amounts of real capital today, driving up raw material and energy prices, while any hypothetical economic payoff is still a long way off.

3️⃣ What is happening to our savings, and why are the rich getting richer? The government is spending massive amounts of money it doesn't have – the US budget deficit has reached a staggering $2.1 trillion in peacetime. To finance this spending, the Fed is essentially running covert money printing. This creates a K-shaped economy: the wealthy, who own stocks and real estate, get richer as asset markets inflate. � Everyday people get poorer. Inflation acts as the ultimate hidden tax, eroding real incomes and purchasing power.

� The main takeaway: persistent market growth, inflation, and severe market swings are our new normal. By understanding the new rules of the game, you can profit across various assets—stocks, crypto – since they are bound to rise as fiat currency continues to devalue. The world has changed, and the old rules of saving no longer work ⌛

In June, Trump made over 1,000 trades: his main purchases were Visa, Berkshire Hathaway, Mastercard, and Cintas 🧚‍♀️

Historically, members of Congress are the most successful traders, and Trump has become the most active and successful president in the stock market.

You can track the trades of the American elite via: 🔵 White House Disclosures Archives: Shows annual disclosures and Periodic Transaction Reports (PTRs) for the president, vice president, and high-ranking officials. 🔵 U.S. House Office of the Clerk: Lets you search financial disclosure reports on trades made by House members and their families in compliance with the STOCK Act. 🔵 U.S. Senate Financial Disclosure: Discloses senators' transactions involving stocks, bonds, and other financial instruments. 🔵 SEC EDGAR Company Search: Tracks direct insider trades if a politician owns a substantial stake in a public company. Reports are published the fastest here, within 2 business days.

The resources above are official platforms where all data is stored in clunky PDFs, though any AI can quickly parse these reports for you. Alternatively, you can use private third-party services that parse these inconvenient PDFs automatically, but charge a paid subscription for it.

2024–2025: Everything played out with surgical precision. 2026–2027: We are following the exact same script. ⚡ The start of the new cycle in October 2026 Looks like we are going according to plan ☝️ Here is where the crypto market stands today: – The largest green candles since we entered the downtrend in 2025 – Increased trading volume (this is critical) – A strong breakout to the upside from the sideways range we have been stuck in since the start of summer 🕑 Over the past few weeks, market sentiment felt as if another drop was imminent. Twitter was flooded with dozens of videos highlighting chart patterns pointing down. In fairness, there was logic to it: we were locked in a prolonged downtrend, our local highs kept getting lower, and there was zero genuine bull demand.

Where are we now? It looks very much like we have broken the downtrend that started in 2025. A pump and buying pressure of this scale isn't just a move to liquidate the bears.

🧪 This rally is being linked to the US Treasury’s plans to buy back long-term Treasury bonds. It is somewhat surprising, given that crypto historically reacts after the fact – liquidity takes time to trickle down to our market. So what happens once that liquidity actually starts flowing in? The timeline and exact scale of the program remain unclear for now; they should provide clarity on this by autumn. However, connecting the dots – Trump's Fed appointee, strong PMI numbers, US midterm elections, dozens of other small yet critical factors, and the overall necessity for QE – points toward one clear outcome: surging liquidity, leading to the full-blown bull run we have all been waiting for.

Shocking stats for entrepreneurs: US companies currently spend around $10,000 per employee each year on software. At the same time, roughly 44% of licenses (accounts) go completely unused. In a 1,000-person company, unused software alone can drain over $3M annually. Optimize this, and profits will climb immediately 😇🤝

Share this with someone who thinks they're spending too much on software each year.

Breaking down BlackRock's latest report, "Re-Underwriting Bitcoin", here are the key takeaways 👇

▶️ Reasons behind BTC's dump to $60k. The price drop isn't a fundamental flaw of Bitcoin itself, but rather a market flush. The drivers: deleveraging and capital rotation into the AI sector. ▶️ The dual nature of the asset. BTC often correlates with risk-on assets, yet during severe crises, it acts as a reliable safe haven. ▶️ Inflation hedge. Against the backdrop of surging national debt and fiat currency debasement, Bitcoin remains a viable long-term global alternative.

✅ BlackRock’s recommendation. Adding a 1–2% BTC allocation to a traditional conservative portfolio has historically boosted overall returns.

Notably, BlackRock is adding Bitcoin ETF shares to its own conservative funds. Currently, BlackRock entities hold over 14 million IBIT shares (~$538M). Wall Street giants are also holding BTC ETFs (Q2 data): 🟢 Morgan Stanley boosted its position by 23% (to 16.5M shares) 🟢 JPMorgan increased its stake by 25% (to 10.4M shares)

💬 BlackRock isn't just recommending holding an allocation in BTC, the financial giant is actively practicing what it preaches. While retail panics over the threat of another dip, Wall Street is quietly accumulating and holding Bitcoin for the long haul.

BTC closed above the 200-day MA for the first time since November 2025. A similar breakout confirmed the return of the bull market back in January 2023 🤑

Most of BTC’s gains were driven by a short squeeze following the US Treasury's announcement to double the buyback volume of long-term Treasuries. Notably, 30-year yields have already retraced half of yesterday’s drop, and the promised additional liquidity won't start flowing until September.

Why hasn't BTC given back at least 50% of its gains, as has happened so many times after pumps like this? Because the market is looking ahead, and right now, we are seeing a clear push from Washington to weaken USD. ▶️ Middle East escalation strengthens the USD; Trump puts the war on pause ▶️ The yen plunges against the greenback; the US and Japan conduct a joint currency intervention ▶️ The Fed is in no rush to cut rates; the Treasury steps in to lower Treasury yields itself

The US is doing everything it can to weaken the dollar. Since Bitcoin is priced in USD, it directly benefits from the softening American currency.

💬 You can't call the end of the crypto bear market based on a single 200 DMA ($69k) signal, a bull trap remains on the table. But you can follow the macro trend of a weakening dollar, which plays directly into the hands of Bitcoin and gold in the long run. P.S. The video is just satisfying to watch, share it with your friends so they can see $3 billion in shorts go up in flames overnight 😄

🧪 Moving higher: BTC broke through $71k, and short liquidations reached $3B in the last 24 hours. Whales have set up sell orders at $72k, $73k, with the main cluster sitting at $74k. If you're in short-term longs, stay cautious – the bears might try to fight back 😏

ChatGPT has rolled out a new Work mode. Designed for complex, multi-step tasks, it takes AI usability to the next level by delivering finished results instead of just advice. For instance, instead of prompting "how to make a presentation," you can directly task it with researching the topic and generating a ready-to-use presentation file. Or, instead of asking "how do I build a website," just provide a reference and get a fully functional site back. Where to find it: The Chat/Work toggle at the top of the web interface. Use cases:

📊 Custom Dashboard. Spotted a great chart or dataset? Turn it into a fully customized dashboard to track trends and present to clients. Upload a reference image along with your raw metrics. The AI writes the code and builds an interactive dashboard with dynamic, auto-updating charts. Result: Instead of a static image, you get an interactive webpage where charts dynamically re-render as data updates, complete with hover tooltips showing exact values.

🖥 A presentation in 5 minutes. Need a report on a complex topic by tomorrow? Hand the heavy lifting over to AI. Set the topic and timeframe. In this mode, the model scans significantly more sources than standard web search. The data is gathered and instantly structured into a slide deck complete with charts and key takeaways. Result: A ready-to-open presentation file that you can download and edit as needed.

🗂 Reports with dynamic formulas. If you regularly merge separate reports into one master document, you can easily automate the process. Work mode can process large volumes of data that regular chat cannot handle. Simply task it with generating a final Excel spreadsheet with embedded formulas. Result: A clean spreadsheet with transparent calculations that automatically recalculates whenever you tweak an input value.

The mode is available on free tier accounts, though complex tasks can hit rate limits fairly quickly.

ChatGPT can now remember your PC activity history and offer assistance 😉 The new Computer History feature is available for macOS desktop app users with a PRO subscription or higher. ChatGPT tracks user activity, allowing you to: – Summarize what you’ve been working on – Ask it to finish your task, with the AI instantly understanding the full context – Let the AI track repetitive actions and automatically suggest ways to automate them For anyone planning to test Computer History: there is a privacy setting that lets you exclude specific apps and websites from tracking. Do we actually trust this setting? 😄

Today, I’ve picked an anti-example for you: Nike, which has dropped by 77% since 2021. Usually, when a company drops 50% from its peaks, it makes sense to buy the dip, provided, of course, that it maintains solid financial health. Just yesterday, I posted a list of such financially healthy companies, but it didn't get many likes 🥲 What’s the situation with Nike? – Stagnant revenue, with sharp declines in key regions – Declining free cash flow – Historically declining margins (which invariably leads to business stagnation) – A rising forward P/E ratio – And so on... The company does NOT look healthy 🚫 Plus, Nike itself operates in the fairly specific apparel secto, it’s not like the semiconductor trend that will be with us for decades. That said, I know other apparel companies that are still managing to grow their numbers.

💸 The average BTC bear market lasts 365 days; assuming history repeats itself, the crypto winter will last another 50 days, and the market bottom will form in early October. It won’t be long now 🕯 BTC has climbed back above $64k ahead of Trump’s meeting with crypto industry representatives at the White House this Wednesday, and on Thursday, the CFTC will hold a meeting on cryptocurrency regulation. If these meetings aren’t just for show, we could see BTC reach the upper boundary of the trading range — $65k 💥 Today marks the end of the 60-day truce between Iran and the U.S. Trump is ready to extend the negotiations indefinitely and is prepared to bomb Oman if necessary. Meanwhile, Iran is demanding that the U.S. lift the naval blockade and is threatening to break through it by military force. 🔽 Japan is in its worst situation in decades—what if a global recession starts in Asia: - Japan’s Q2 GDP came in at just 1.1%, compared to a forecast of 2% - The yield on 2-year bonds is 1.7%—a 30-year high - The yen continues to plummet; the effect of joint U.S.-Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market has weakened by 50% over the past week

1 000-Day Strategy to 10x Your ETH 💵 The trend is tied to the Bitcoin halving, which has a similar strategy: buying 500 days before the event and selling 500 days after it.

Ethereum doesn't have its own halvings, but it’s one of the few altcoins that hits new all-time highs during every BTC bull market. According to this setup, you should buy in December 2026 and sell in August 2029.

For the next cycle, Ethereum is projected to reach the long-awaited $10k, and it’s not just about BTC cycles: 🟢 Ethereum accounts for 54% of all DeFi TVL – $41 billion 🟢 A record amount of ETH is currently staked – $165 billion 🟢 On-chain transactions are at an all-time high during the crypto winter – 2,6 million per day How bullish are you on ETH? 🔥 – Buying now, holding for $10k 🐳 – Will buy during the bull run 🕊 – Total scam, sold and forgot about it

US corporate profits are growing at a record pace. From here, US stocks are only going up 🧪 Look at the year 2000 and the dot-com bubble – back then, profits were falling, so it was only natural for the bubble to burst ⌛

If you invested $100 a month in the S&P 500 starting in 1957, your total capital today would be $3.4M with a total investment of just $83k 💵

The key factor in successful investing isn't the size of your starting capital, but your time horizon. The earlier your money starts working, the more powerful the compound interest effect becomes.

Let's compare two strategies (retiring at age 65): ▶️ Investor A: started at age 25 and invested regularly for just 10 years. Total invested: $24k. At age 35, they stopped contributing completely but left the accumulated capital working in the market. ▶️ Investor B: started at age 35 and contributed continuously for 30 years until retirement. Total invested: $72k.

The result: by age 65, Investor A will have accumulated a larger portfolio while investing 3 times less of their own money. This is because over the long run, the primary driver of portfolio growth isn't personal contributions, but reinvested returns (interest on interest). Investor A's capital enjoyed 40 years of uninterrupted compound growth. Investor B, despite their discipline and larger contributions, simply couldn't make up for that lost decade.

Simple math: 🟢 $100 invested for 10 years at a 5% annual yield brings $63 in net profit 🔴 $1,000 invested for 1 year at the same 5% annual yield brings only $50 💬 Don't wait until you have "large sums" to get started. In investing, time always beats volume: putting $100 to work today is more effective than trying to invest $1,000 in 10 years. Does this approach work in the crypto market? Yes, if you invest long-term and pick reliable assets (BTC).

It's trickier with altcoins, only a select few tokens can be considered actual investments. The other 99% are purely speculative: they might look more profitable in the moment, but if you don't exit at the peak, all that's left to do is count your losses.

Michael Burry is furious about the AI stock rally, he’s increased his short positions on Nebius, Micron, Oracle, and the Semiconductor ETF. Meanwhile, Nebius spiked +34% yesterday 😡 👇 Take a closer look at Nebius. While Michael Burry is shorting it (he shorts pretty much everything, to be fair), I’m actually accumulating this stock.

Nebius is essentially a European AI infrastructure play born out of the Yandex split. Following a complete business split and the sale of all its Russian assets in 2024, the company rebranded, renamed itself, and emerged as an independent Western AI firm.

Nebius falls under the high-risk, high-reward category, so expect heavy volatility, it’s best bought on dips. Why is it considered a high-risk play? High Capital Expenditures (Capex). The company is currently in an aggressive scaling phase, requiring massive investments in hardware purchases, which is temporarily weighing on its free cash flow. Still, there’s definitely a strong smell of big profits ahead ✊

US inflation continues to decline (3.4% in July), despite the closed Strait of Hormuz and total uncertainty as to when this will end 🇺🇸

The stock market is reacting positively in anticipation of an extended Fed rate hike pause at the September 16 meeting. Especially given that the three previous S&P 500 pullbacks since summer 2023 were completely bought up, yielding an average return of 19%. 30-year statistics show that the S&P 500 hit a new high after passing the peak in 13 out of 17 cases over the following 6 months. CFRA analysts have already raised their 12-month target for the index to 8,650 (+11%).

💸 This is happening because the AI sector, as the main driver of stock growth, continues to deliver strong earnings reports. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz situation is having less and less impact on global markets; the only remaining risk factor in the Middle East right now is a full-scale regional war.

We previously discussed the lack of liquidity in the markets, which is restraining stock growth and completely preventing Bitcoin from turning around. A potential future rise in the S&P 500 will support BTC, but it won't trigger a full bull market on its own. For that, we need either a major positive catalyst, like real and lasting peace in Iran, the passage of the Clarity Act, a new major buyer like Saylor, or perhaps all of the above.

Without these factors, the crypto market is left waiting for an influx of liquidity, which could nevertheless begin before the end of the year. Therefore, the current situation for BTC looks as follows: 🔴 We cannot confirm that the bottom is in 🔴 We cannot promise an imminent "to the moon" 🟢 We cannot advise staying out of the market, as the current price is definitely a good entry point for building spot positions for growth in 2027–2029

The best indicator for Bitcoin's bottom right now is the crossover of Realized Losses and Realized Profits 💸 The video shows that the indicator worked perfectly in previous cycles and hasn't yet given a signal that the bottom has been reached.

Analytics platforms hide Realized Losses and Realized Profits behind a paid subscription, so for you, we created a new similar indicator for TradingView (see screenshot), which you can add in 5 minutes and use completely free 🏀

How to add the indicator: 1. Log into your TradingView account, open the BTC/USD candlestick chart, select the 1W timeframe, and switch to a logarithmic scale. 2. In the bottom right corner, open the menu (the circle icon with dots) and select "Pine Editor". 3. A code window will open; clear the default template and paste the code below:

//@version=5 indicator("BTC Realized P/L Exact Video [Final]", shorttitle="RPL Video Final", overlay=true) // ========================================== // 1. DEFAULT SETTINGS // ========================================== ema_len = input.int(59, "EMA Smoothing Length (weeks)", minval=1) spread_mult = input.float(44.0, "Line Spread (Separate yellow/blue)", minval=1.0) level_shift = input.float(0.18, "Line Level Below Price (18% of BTC)", minval=0.05, maxval=0.5) // ========================================== // 2. DATA AND EMA SMOOTHING // ========================================== sopr_raw = request.security("GLASSNODE:BTC_SOPR", "W", close) sopr_smooth = ta.ema(sopr_raw, ema_len) // Baseline below candles (18% of BTC price) base_line = ta.sma(close, 80) * level_shift // ========================================== // 3. LINE SPREAD CALCULATION // ========================================== dev = (sopr_smooth - 1.0) * spread_mult profit_line = base_line * math.exp(dev) loss_line = base_line * math.exp(-dev) // ========================================== // 4. LINE PLOTTING // ========================================== p_prof = plot(profit_line, "Realized Profit (Yellow)", color=#FFC107, linewidth=2) p_loss = plot(loss_line, "Realized Loss (Blue)", color=#2196F3, linewidth=2) // ========================================== // 5. CAPITULATION ZONES AND BUY SIGNAL // ========================================== is_capitulation = loss_line > profit_line // Red background and fill between lines bgcolor(is_capitulation ? color.new(#FF5252, 85) : na, title="Bottom Zone") fill(p_loss, p_prof, color = is_capitulation ? color.new(#FF5252, 60) : na, title="Gap Fill") // Buy signal triangle below candles at the crossover moment signal_buy = ta.crossover(loss_line, profit_line) plotshape(signal_buy, title="Buy Signal", style=shape.triangleup, location=location.belowbar, color=#FF5252, size=size.normal)

4. Click "Save" and "Add to chart" at the top of the editor. No indicator provides a 100% guarantee, but this one has worked flawlessly through all previous cycles. Save this indicator for yourself and share it with your friends 👍

Over the past 30 years, the S&P 500 has continued to rise after reaching an ATH (All-Time High) in 13 out of 17 cases – gaining an average of +6.3% over the following six months. That is precisely what Wall Street bankers are pricing into their forecasts: between 7,900 and 8,100 points by the end of the year 🔼

The story about the AI bubble being a major risk factor doesn't look convincing, as U.S. pre-tax corporate profits as a percentage of GDP have hit a record 14%. The numbers behind company stock growth may look bubble-like, but unlike in 2000, there is a solid underlying foundation in the form of hundreds of billions in investments and revenue. PrimeXBT.

However, the S&P 500's path to 8,000 won't necessarily be a straight line. Here is what could go wrong:

▶️ U.S. autumn congressional midterm/special elections, which traditionally trigger a market correction ▶️ Escalation in the Middle East if the war spreads across the entire region. Today, Yemeni Houthis struck Saudi Arabia again ▶️ A revaluation of the AI sector, despite strong revenues, Big Tech has issued $200 billion in debt bonds since the start of the year (double the amount for the whole of 2025)

Where does BTC go in that scenario? If triggered, any of these factors could easily push the crypto market to a bottom below $55k. The subsequent resolution of these issues, however, could be the very positive catalyst that puts an end to the crypto winter 🤑