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Crypto Narratives
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📊 مؤشرات الجمهور والحراك
منذ تأسيسه في невідомо، حقق المشروع نمواً سريعاً وجمع 21 707 مشتركاً.
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- حالة التحقق: غير موثّقة
- معدل التفاعل (ER): يبلغ متوسط تفاعل الجمهور 23.04%. وخلال أول 24 ساعة من النشر يحصد المحتوى عادةً 14.29% من ردود الفعل نسبةً إلى إجمالي المشتركين.
- وصول المنشورات: يحصل كل منشور على متوسط 4 999 مشاهدة. وخلال اليوم الأول يجمع عادةً 3 100 مشاهدة.
- التفاعلات والاستجابة: يتفاعل الجمهور بانتظام؛ متوسط التفاعلات لكل منشور يبلغ 34.
- الاهتمامات الموضوعية: يركز المحتوى على مواضيع رئيسية مثل mstr, hype, chart, axs, eth.
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“Link to my "Crypto Narratives" newsletter : https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/
Link to my Twitter profile : https://twitter.com/thedefivillain
Link to the TG degen channel : https://t.me/shitcoinsandgems”
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| التاريخ | نمو المشتركين | الإشارات | القنوات | |
| 01 يوليو | +14 |
منشورات القناة
One no-brainer improvement for $STRC and $SATA (but it obviously won't be very useful in the near-term) is to let it float above $100, maybe to $110
STRC is trying to defy the laws of physics by having both a stable price and a quasi-stable yield (in the sense that the yield moves extremely slowly) while being backed by a very volatile asset
This is something that can't work, and it results in increased volatility to the downside once BTC dumps, because the 'forced' ATM at $100 leads to the absorption of 'too much demand' at $100, and an inorganic increase of the market cap that happens too fast to get digested properly.
The other problem with guaranteeing the ATM at $100 is that it offers a zero-downside short trade (except yield+funding but these are very low on a short timeframe), while at the same time capping the upside for holders (they only get the volatility to the downside). It's sub-optimal on a lot of levels except on getting levered quickly at the expense of future price instability.
| 2 | Robinhood and $DYDX both have an announcement to make today so I expect them to be related...
DYDX is up almost 2x in a week.
We will most likely sell the news after the announcement but the question is whether the token first pumps hard (like ZRO in February) or not. | 1 599 |
| 3 | BTC is repeatedly trying to break the $59k support and make new bear market lows but the TL seems to be super chill and is basically not caring | 1 810 |
| 4 | There is no incentive for Saylor to buyback STRC at this level
The SEC filing is all about signaling
I strongly doubt he's going to repurchase STRC above $70, I don't even think he would do it above $50.
If he's selling BTC to buy STRC, then the chart that should matter is STRC/BTC. I don't expect this chart to collapse so I don't think it would be interesting for him to buyback STRC
STRC is now basically a STRF-like pref that is floating, bringing it back to $100 is not that important anymore (*as the issuer that is focusing on limiting damage and not issuing more in the short-term*) because no one believes it must trade at $100 anymore
He will probably keep the dividend rate at 12%, which is a clean 1% for month, easy to remember. Everybody kind of agrees that it would be useless to try to increase it enough for the asset to trade back at par anyway, so there's no incentive to increase it either. | 3 048 |
| 5 |  Some people are holding millions of $ worth of locked
$LAB tokens and the 1st unlocks are approaching so they try to hedge their positions by shorting but they are getting completely smoked with a -10000% annualized funding rate
They won't let you get away with that money, dawg | 3 409 |
| 6 |  The only trade I took so far on $SYN is shorting the squeeze to $0.65, it was a scalp that I close in a few hours
My criteria for shorting was a hourly candle with $150M+ volume, and this is the only candle that came close to it, it was a very obvious short on LTF
But what's more important is that by respecting this "volume saturation" rule before shorting, you are preventing yourself from taking shorts with much less certainty of being a win.
Right now I'm once again waiting for another high-volume squeeze that will almost certainly be a winning short.
Could I have just longed a dip? Yeah sure, but I don't have the conviction required to do that, so I'm not trying to force trades that I don't like. Taking less trades with more conviction is basically always a good idea. | 3 258 |
| 7 |  I guess that makes it 6 attempts? | 3 610 |
| 8 |  Cavalry has arrived | 3 600 |
| 9 |  Buying the dip on $MU
MU is the new NVDA | 3 625 |
| 10 | One of the key messages from this SEC filing is 'I won't be as free to make some stupid decisions like using the USD reserve to buyback converts anymore' | 3 444 |
| 11 |  Most bullish reaction from the SEC filing is on STRC which makes sense because it was the most irrationally sold off | 3 409 |
| 12 | Summary:
- USD Reserve policy: they are now committing to having at least 1y worth of dividends in it. They are also promising that it won't be used for anything other than div payments.
- STRC dividend: basically there is no clear guidance anymore, they are not guaranteeing a dividend increase even if it trades below par.
- STRC + other prefs buyback program: they are announcing that they might do it, but haven't done anything yet => Signal that they could buy these back if their price goes low enough
- MSTR buyback program: they are announcing that they might do it, but haven't don't anything yet. => Signal that MSTR mNAV *could* be defended below some threshold
- They remind everyone that they could be selling BTC for all sort of purposes, but still only sold MSTR and not BTC last week even at depressed mNAV
- They sold $1.1bn worth of MSTR shares to replenish the USD reserve, which now covers almost 1.5 year worth of dividends
https://x.com/saylor/status/2071565162377568377 | 6 479 |
| 13 |  Is there any reason for $MON not to go sub $1bn FDV in the coming months?
Now that it failed repeatedly at being in an uptrend, there's no reason to hold it anymore and it's a $2bn FDV alt L1 with 0 volume
(The anti-bearish case is ‘it’s a $2bn FDV coin with 0 volume, so it’s cornered enough not to die?’) | 3 333 |
| 14 |  +1The gold and silver blowoff tops marking a multi-month (year?) top looks incredibly likely just based on their chart but calling it at the time when everyone was bulled up didn't feel comfortable at all | 3 694 |
| 15 |  Buying a scam coin after a huge retrace, *if* price action stabilizes, can be a good r/r trade
$VELVET | 3 830 |
| 16 |  That was 4 opportunities to break below $60k in three days for bears
Even if it eventually breaks, we should get some short-term relief? | 4 145 |
| 17 | Several days at $1bn+ volume on the Binance perp contract means we're very close to a local top on a large cap
TAO TON XLM NEAR WLD are the 5 most recent examples of that volume saturation
HYPE and ZEC are in a different league because their baseline volume is already very high, so the criteria doesn't work on them | 4 146 |
| 18 | The list hasn't really changed today, and a few of these coins are up >10% from yesterday prices | 3 989 |
| 19 |  +1I outlined the worst-case scenario for STRC in my article: back then the USD reserve was still worth 2 years+ which was definitely much better than the current 10 months, but the overall picture doesn't change.
In a distressed scenario, I imagined a 40% discount (ie $STRC at $60) with a 15% dividend rate, making the effective yield 25%.
This is obviously a ballpark estimate that entirely depends on BTC price, but that's precisely my point: STRC price is a function of BTC, and if you expect BTC to go really low, it will obviously impact STRC+MSTR. But up until the past few weeks, most people didn't have BTC bottom price expectations that were low enough to justify being as bearish as they were on the MSTR complex.
You can't have your own rational estimate of STRC price if you don't take your expected BTC price trajectory as an input.
If you think BTC is trending to zero long-term, then yeah the fair price of STRC is probably extremely low ($10-$20?)
If you think BTC is entering a dramatic bear market that will tremendously hurt MSTR, then the fair price of STRC might be something like $30-$50?
If you think BTC will chop for like 2 years, just enough to negatively impact the bitcoin per share of Strategy and make it a significantly less important actor in the next bull market, then the fair price of STRC might be like $50 - $70?
If you think BTC is close to a bottom, then the fair price of STRC is probably quite close to $100. | 4 392 |
| 20 |  +2At the same time, XLM WLD NEAR INJ are looking cooked among the coins that pumped recently
They are obviously not the only ones, as you can see on the screenshots below, most coins are very ugly (HBAR, ADA, PUMP, etc) | 4 012 |
