Paradigm Edge

Paradigm Session Recap – July 1 Spot is up, with BTC at $59,700 and ETH at $1,600 as of this writing. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the inflation outlook has improved since the FOMC met a few weeks ago, while reiterating the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation back down. Fronts eased a notch. Flows featured the 17 Jul 56k put lifted at 48v, while ETH calls were bought across a couple strikes.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 30 Spot is down, with BTC at $58,500 and ETH at $1,600 as of this writing. U.S. indexes closed the quarter on a strong note, with the Nasdaq up 21% and the S&P 500 up 15% in Q2, the biggest quarterly gains since Q2 2020. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs are on track for the largest month of outflows since launch. Fronts are up a notch while skew was largely unchanged. Flows featured the September 50k put lifted at 48v and the September 86 SOL call lifted at 69v.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 29 Spot is up, with BTC at $60,200 and ETH at $1,600 as of this writing. This week features a Kevin Warsh speech on Wednesday and June non-farm payrolls on Thursday. U.S. markets will be closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday. Fronts and put skew eased. Flows featured the December 60k straddle sold at 44v, alongside a relative-value trade selling December wings, buying June 2027 wings.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 25 Spot is down, with BTC at $59,800 and ETH at $1,600 as of this writing. May PCE rose 4.1% YoY, while core PCE increased 3.4%. Tomorrow, $9.3B in BTC options are set to expire with a max pain price of 71k, alongside $1.5B in ETH options with a max pain price of 2k. BTC skew eased while ETH skew climbed. Fronts spiked during the U.S. session as BTC broke lost 59k but later retraced as spot climbed back. Flows featured the 10 Jul 56k put lifted at 53v. In ETH, Sep 1.2k/2.3k risk reversals also traded.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 24 Spot is down, with BTC at $60,800 and ETH at $1,600 as of this writing. Micron Technology rallied after hours as investors welcomed guidance indicating the chip shortage could persist beyond 2027. Fronts and mids widened a couple vols after spiking when the 60k level was lost. Basis flipped negative through 28 Jun. Flows featured the 3 Jul 58k put lifted at 52v and a 3 Jul 64k/66k/68k/70k condor.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 23 Spot is down, with BTC at $62,600 and ETH at $1,700 as of this writing. AI and semiconductor names weighed heavily on equities. The selloff began in Asia, with Samsung down 12%, and carried through to U.S. markets, where the Nasdaq fell 2.2% and the S&P 500 lost 1.4%. Strategy shares closed at their lowest level in two years. ATMs were largely unchanged while put skew increased slightly. Flows were mixed, with Jul and Aug call spreads bought and sold. A 3 Jul 62k straddle also traded at 38v.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 22 Spot is up, with BTC at $64,000 and ETH at $1,700 as of this writing. This week features Micron Technology earnings on Wednesday and May PCE data on Thursday. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw $227M in net outflows last week, extending the negative flow streak to six consecutive weeks. Fronts eased while put skew remains. Flows were muted, with the December 58k put lifted at 45v. A December risk reversal also traded, with the 40k put bought at 57v and the 100k call sold at 42v.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 18 Spot is down, with BTC at $62,800 and ETH at $1,700 as of this writing. Stocks rebounded, reversing yesterday’s slide following the hawkish Fed meeting. Fed Funds Futures now price a 70% probability of a rate hike by September, up from 30% just one week ago. Mids are up a couple vols while put skew widened. Flows featured puts lifted across the board in June and July, spanning ATM to OTM strikes.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 17 Spot is down, with BTC at $64,000 and ETH at $1,700 as of this writing. The Fed held its benchmark rate steady at 3.5%–3.75%. The Summary of Economic Projections was notably hawkish, with 9 of 18 officials penciling in at least one rate hike this year, up from none in March. Fronts rebounded and put skew followed spot. Flows featured the 21 Jun 62k put lifted at 45v.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 16 Spot is flat, with BTC at $65,800 and ETH at $1,800 as of this writing. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1%, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since 1995. Attention now turns to tomorrow’s Fed decision, alongside rate decisions from the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank on Thursday, both expected to hold. Fronts eased a couple vols. BTC flows featured the 25 Sep 50k put lifted at 48v. In smaller size there were also 20 Jun and 26 Jun puts lifted.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 15 Spot is up, with BTC at $66,200 and ETH at $1,800 as of this writing. SpaceX shares rose nearly 20% on Monday, bringing the rocket company near Amazon’s market cap. This week features the first Federal Reserve rate decision under Chairman Kevin Warsh on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. U.S. markets will be closed Friday for the Juneteenth holiday. Fronts retraced, with BTC vols sitting in the high 30s and ETH vols in the low 50s. BTC flows featured 26 Jun put condors lifted.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 11 Spot is up, with BTC at $63,300 and ETH at $1,700 as of this writing. Stocks rallied and oil prices fell after Trump canceled planned strikes. SpaceX staged the largest IPO ever, selling $75B worth of shares. The stock is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, likely sometime Friday afternoon. Fronts retraced and put skew eased. Flows featured June and July call spreads alongside outright call buying.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 10 Spot is down, with BTC at $61,200 and ETH at $1,600 as of this writing. Stocks sold off and Treasury yields edged higher after May CPI showed year-over-year inflation accelerating to 4.2%, the highest level in three years. Core inflation rose 2.9% from a year earlier, in line with expectations. Fronts are up slightly while put skew followed spot. Flows featured the 26 Jun 57k put bought at 53v and the 19 Jun 66k call trading at 43v.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 9 Spot is down, with BTC at $61,700 and ETH at $1,700 as of this writing. Tech stocks continued to weigh on indexes. The weakness has been attributed to a mix of factors, including profit-taking after the recent run-up, rising rate concerns, and the upcoming SpaceX IPO. Vols were largely unchanged. BTC December basis is trading around 3.7% annualized. Flows featured 1dte calls and puts lifted.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 8 Spot is flat, with BTC at $63,100 and ETH at $1,700 as of this writing. OpenAI confidentially filed IPO paperwork with the SEC, potentially setting the stage for a public listing this fall, though the company said the timing remains undecided. This week features May CPI on Wednesday and the long-awaited SpaceX IPO on Friday. Fronts retraced while put skew remains. Flows featured a 10 Jun / 11 Jun put calendar. A December risk reversal also traded, with the 85k call sold at 43v and the 45k put bought at 52v.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 4 Spot is down, with BTC at $63,500 and ETH at $1,800 as of this writing. Broadcom shares fell 13% after guidance on AI demand failed to meet inflated expectations, weighing on the broader semiconductor and AI complex. Fronts retraced during the session, and put skew eased slightly. Flows featured the 26 Jun 68k/74k call spread and the 26 Jun 65k/60k put spread.