Paradigm Edge
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منشورات القناة
Paradigm Session Recap - August 26th
• BTC closed up 0.67% to $79,062; DVOL down 3p to 40
• ETH closed up 2.81% to $2,508; DVOL down 2p to 56
IV is contracting as Bitcoin's price hovers around $78k, even with increasing fear ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday following a slightly hot PCE print. A positive signal, considering how volatility generally behaves during market declines or fear
The term structure is nearly back to contango, except for the August 29 expiry, the day after the FED chair's speech
Another large ETH put purchase today: 15,000 contracts at the $2150 strike for September 25, in one block. It followed a pattern similar to last Friday’s purchase of 27,000 contracts
Puts are still cheap relative to calls as the skew is still negative in most tenors, but it started bouncing today, especially in longer-dated tenors
Nvidia beat earnings, providing relief for traditional markets.
| 2 |  Paradigm Session Recap - August 25th
• BTC closed down 0.64% to $78,441; DVOL is down 1p to 43p
• ETH closed down 1.57% to $2,444; DVOL is flat at 58.19p
Bitcoin hit an intraday high of $81,249, touching its 50W SMA for the first time since losing it on November 10th, 2025. Which is normal for an HTF resistance not to give in on the first attempt
BTC and ETH had >4-sigma moves last week, an event that last occurred after Trump won the election in November 2024
Options positioning continues bullish, with BTC and ETH 25-delta and 10-delta skews still negative in all tenors
Paradigm's BTC traders keep posting bullish bets as today's net delta exposure sits at 862.83 coins or $68.78M, nearly 48% of the gross delta traded in the day
Trad markets finally caught a breather with the Nasdaq closing its first positive day since August 13th while the SPX recorded its second green session in the period.
Tradfi events to keep an eye on for tomorrow (26)
• PCE at 8:30am ET / 8:30pm SGT
• Nvidia earnings around 4:30pm ET / 4:30am SGT +1 | 189 |
| 3 |  Paradigm Session Recap - August 24th
• BTC closed up 1.89% to $79,159; DVOL is flat at 44p
• ETH closed slightly up 0.79% to $2,481; DVOL is down ~2p to 58.48p
Paradigm traded $1.18B in volume today, with BTC's top trades mainly being bullish positions with a net long delta of 718 BTC. ETH experienced a quiet day, accounting for less than 1% of Paradigm's total volume and ranking as the third most traded asset after BTC and XRP.
XRP traders sold 5M $1.5 25-Sep-26 straddles as the 1M IV has risen by 37 points over the last four days. | 226 |
| 4 |  Paradigm's Week In Review (August 17 - August 23)
The crypto majors put massive weekly candles as this week saw the largest short liquidation event in history on Wednesday the 19th
• BTC closed the week up 24% to $77,644
• ETH closed the week up 31.77% to $2,463
Volatility started expanding after the aggressive up move in the market
• BTC DVOL is up 8 points from 35v to 43v
• ETH DVOL is up 13 points from 47.5v to 60.3v
The majority of Paradigm's largest trades this week were bullish positions, but the most interesting position was the 27k ETH puts bought on Friday (21) as the 25-delta skew, and RR reached extremely cheap levels for puts during the week | 297 |
| 5 |  لا يوجد نص... | 313 |
| 6 |  Paradigm Session Recap - August 20th
Another big day for Paradigm with $1.6B in options volume traded.
The crypto market continued its rally after yesterday's big short squeeze, with another billion dollars in short liquidations.
BTC closed up another 5.5% to $73k while ETH added 3.36% to $2.32k.
BTC and ETH DVOL calmed down after yesterday's big move at 39.78v and 53v, respectively.
Bitcoin closed for the second consecutive day above its key daily SMAs and the short-term holders' cost basis, indicating the beginning of a trend shift.
Today's tape showed a different outlook than the last two weeks, with most ETH positions net long delta and vega, while BTC positioning was split between traders buying and selling upside vol.
The 25-delta skew is the most call-skewed it has been in the last 6M, with tenors between 1D and 1M all negative.
The skew has been near the bottom percentile across all tenors over the last six months. | 295 |
| 7 |  Paradigm Session Recap - August 19th
Big day for Paradigm with over $800M traded
BTC touched $70k for the first time since June 2nd and ETH is up ~20% on the day to $2285
Volatility is expanding again with BTC DVOL up 6 points to 41%, and ETH DVOL is up over 10 points to 56.89%
Options activity picked up today, with mostly bullish positions opened for BTC and ETH between our top trades
Highlight to the ETH market as it was pretty quiet over the last 10 days except for last Friday, the 14th
The largest short liquidation in crypto's history happened today, surpassing last year's "10/10" with more than $2.6B in shorts liquidated
The move was driven by the announcement that the US Treasury will at least double its purchases of the long-end bonds from $2B to $4B per operation, followed by the huge shorts’ liquidation
Today was the largest options volume day since June 21
• Nasdaq is up 0.16% to 26,331.09
• S&P is flat 0.21% to 7,707.98
Both indices are effectively flat while crypto continues to show relative strength | 288 |
| 8 |  Paradigm Session Recap - August 18th
• BTC closed flat at $64,765; DVOL also flat at 34.9p
• ETH closed flat at $1,917; DVOL is also flat at 46.1p
Traders continue to capitalize on historically low IV levels. The two biggest trades of the day involved long end strangle buys for Q1 and H1 expirations in 2027.
Similar to yesterday, the ETH market saw little activity compared to usual.
BTC dealer gamma turned positive territory above $63.5k, after closing above it yesterday.
Stocks declined today, with crypto showing relative strength for the first time since the Situational Awareness deleveraging.
• Nasdaq is down 1.33% to 26,289.71
• S&P is down 0.69% to 7,691.76
The SEC released a crypto-asset regulatory proposal with two specific exemptions under the Securities Act:
• Startup exemption: Offerings of up to $5 million over four years.
• Fundraising exemption: Offerings of up to $75 million every 12 months, with additional requirements such as financial statements and ongoing reporting.
Despite crypto’s relative strength against TradFi, the market’s reaction to this SEC news highlights how apathetic the crypto market is right now. | 263 |
| 9 |  Paradigm Session Recap - August 17th
• BTC closed up 2.67% to $64,500; DVOL sits at 34.8p
• ETH closed up 1.92% to $1,912; DVOL sits at 46
BTC crossed its 20d, 50d, and 200w SMAs with today's pump, trying to regain momentum while the S&P is around ATHs
Crypto majors' IV continues to drift lower, while the IV/RV ratio keeps expanding as the options market prices in a larger move than what's currently happening. BTC 30d VRP is at 12.08p, while ETH 30d VRP is at 15.86p
Vol sellers are still getting paid, but it’s unclear how long they can keep doing so before a major market move occurs | 284 |
| 10 |  Paradigm's Week In Review (August 10 - August 15)
BTC and ETH traders' behavior was opposite this week, as BTC traders were net long delta and vega while ETH traders were net short the same greeks, despite ETH/BTC being up 2.6% since Monday
• BTC - traders took advantage of 'cheap' vol to mostly buy calls, with the bulk of the volume at the $70k strike
• ETH - traders' positioning was mostly bearish and short vol even though IV is in the yearly-low region
This divergence is interesting because both assets are moving similarly on price and volatility, trading in a tight range with realized volatility compressing faster than IV.
Both assets' VRP are in high percentiles YTD, with BTC at the 92nd percentile and ETH at the 87th percentile | 315 |
| 11 |  Paradigm Session Recap - August 12th
Traders took advantage of cheap vol at yesterday's session to build bullish positions as the market wasn't pricing a high risk of a hot CPI print
Despite CPI data coming in line with expectations, both BTC and ETH gave back early-day gains and closed slightly down, at $63,392 and $1,877, respectively. DVOL is flat | 333 |
| 12 |  Paradigm Session Recap - August 11th
• BTC closed down 0.55% to $63,473; DVOL is up to 37
• ETH closed up 0.6% to $1,882; DVOL is flat at 48.9
Yesterday's session was quieter as the July CPI release is approaching. The market is not anticipating a bad print per the vol and skew data
ATM vol is still in the lows range while the term structure is in contango. The 25-delta skew hasn't changed much, with most tenors sitting between 10 and 14 pp | 334 |
| 13 |  Paradigm Session Recap - August 10th
• BTC closed down 1.33% to $63,973; DVOL is up to 36.09
• ETH closed down 2.19% to $1,871; DVOL is up to 49.65
Volatility sits at historically low numbers, the only period worse was 2023, where BTC and ETH's vol were trending down for the best part of a year
The top Paradigm trades in today's session are looking to take advantage of cheap premiums to bet on BTC's breakout of the current range to $70k in the next 45 days | 330 |
| 14 |  Paradigm Session Recap - August 6th
• BTC is flat at $64,256; DVOL is also flat at 34.98
• ETH is flat $1,901; DVOL is also flat at 47.90
As vol keeps trending down, today was a very calm day for the crypto market with only two trades over 100 BTC notional and no large trade for ETH
IV is still at the bottom rank and percentile of the year, but BTC's VRP still carries 6pp while ETH carries 8pp
*VRP calculated using DVOL vs. the last 30d realized volatility | 447 |
| 15 |  Paradigm Session Recap - August 5th
• BTC closed up 0.66% to $64,551; DVOL is flat at 34.65
• ETH closed up 2.14% to $1,906.8; DVOL is flat at 48.07
IV now sits at the bottom 0.5 percentile for BTC and ETH. IV rank for both assets sit at the bottom 2 percentile. The current vol trend is similar to 2023, where IV was making historical lows but still contained a fat risk premium compared to realized vol.
Contrary to yesterday, the vast majority of ETH's top positions were long positions: 12.2k long calls opened today, mostly 4-5 DTE.
• Nasdaq is down 0.83% to 26,363.44
• S&P is flat at 7,723.55 | 418 |
| 16 |  Paradigm Session Recap - August 4th
• BTC is up 1.23% to $64,239; DVOL is slightly down to 34.06
• ETH is up 0.87% to $1,875; DVOL is down to 47.89
Both IV and realized volatility keep trending down on crypto majors while equity indexes bounce to new ATHs
ETH flows featured mostly bear risk reversals for September and December's quarterly expiries, totaling 16.5k contracts
• Spot Brent fell another 6% to $78.48, closing below $80 for the first time since July 10th
• Nasdaq is up 2.59% at 26,584.99
• S&P is up 1.79% to a new all-time high of 7,736.52 | 349 |
| 17 |  Paradigm Session Recap - August 3rd
• BTC closed the day flat at $63,435; DVOL is slightly down to 34.81
• ETH is down 1.37% to $1,859; DVOL is slightly down to 49.23
The IV Rank & Percentile for both majors keep trending lower, BTC sits at IV Rank 3.4 and IV Percentile 3, while
ETH sits at IV Rank 4.7 and IV Percentile 3.8
The $70k call strike saw 3.3k new contracts opened today, the biggest change by any strike, with the bulk of it for the quarterly expiry on September 25th
The 2026 window is closing for the Clarity Act's approval as the US Senate leaves for recess on August 11th, and there is still a deadlock over ethics. The prediction markets' odds of approval in 2026 sit at 27%.
• Spot Brent closed down 5.67% at $83.10
• Nasdaq is up 2.13% at 25,913.90
• S&P is up 1.48% at 7,600.50 | 326 |
| 18 |  Paradigm Session Recap - July 30
• BTC is up 1.27% at $64,754; DVOL is down 2pp at 35.52
• ETH is up 1.36% at $1,933; DVOL is down 1.5pp at 50.9
The frontend of the curve got crushed by as much as 10v after the FOMC, with tomorrow's July 31 expiry falling 10.1v for BTC and 13.2v for ETH. The curve is now in contango from the Aug 7 expiry.
Tomorrow's expiry is a big one, $11.99B of BTC OI and $1.66B of ETH OI, 33.4% and 29% of the respective totals. Roughly 91% of BTC and 81% of ETH's OI are OTM and will probably expire worthless. 78.1% of BTC's OI is at least 5% OTM while 64.9% of ETH's is 5% or more OTM.
The IV Rank % Percentile for both majors are in extremely low values:
• BTC sits at IV Rank 4.4 and IV Percentile 5.2
• ETH sits at IV Rank 7 and IV Percentile 5.5
ETH's tape had interesting positioning today as the two biggest positions are a $35.7M put bought for August's monthly expiry and a $13.5M bull call spread for August 7.
There was some relief on the market after the news of Citadel acquiring Leopold's Situational Awareness public equities book.
The VIX is down over 4 points today after the relief in AI-related stocks and the fear of the FED hiking passed
• Spot Brent is flat at $87.01
• Nasdaq is up 2.78% at 25,122.18
• S&P is up 1.66% at 7,473.63 | 365 |
| 19 | لا يوجد نص... | 1 |
| 20 |  Paradigm Session Recap - July 29
• BTC is flat at $63,881; DVOL is also flat at 37.48
• ETH is flat at $1,903; DVOL is also flat at 52.61
The FED kept rates unchanged on a 9-3 vote. It was the first time since since 2016 that were three dissents in the same direction
The bond market didn't like Warsh's press conference as the 30Y yields went up 0.061 points during the interview, now at 5.212%, the highest since 2007. The 10y is up 0.073 points in the day, nearing its 1-year highs at 4.687%
Meta tumbles 9% in the afterhours after missing earnings forecast
• EPS $6.18 vs. $7.14 y/y - 13% below expectations
• Revenue $60.80B, est. $60.24B
The KOSPI closed -5.98% day, now 40% off the highs as the country's broad deleverage continues
• Spot Brent is up 4.25% to $87.91
• Nasdaq is down 1.744% at 24,442.94
• S&P is down 1.52% at 7,316.15
Despite everything that is happening in the traditional markets, major crypto asstes' volatility have been non-existent while memory stocks such as Micron and Sandisk are trading on over 100% realized vol
It is still not clear if crypto's recent lack of volatility and outperformance against Trad markets is relative strengh or just a lag before following it downward | 339 |
