Paradigm Edge

Paradigm Session Recap – June 11 Spot is up, with BTC at $63,300 and ETH at $1,700 as of this writing. Stocks rallied and oil prices fell after Trump canceled planned strikes. SpaceX staged the largest IPO ever, selling $75B worth of shares. The stock is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, likely sometime Friday afternoon. Fronts retraced and put skew eased. Flows featured June and July call spreads alongside outright call buying.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 10 Spot is down, with BTC at $61,200 and ETH at $1,600 as of this writing. Stocks sold off and Treasury yields edged higher after May CPI showed year-over-year inflation accelerating to 4.2%, the highest level in three years. Core inflation rose 2.9% from a year earlier, in line with expectations. Fronts are up slightly while put skew followed spot. Flows featured the 26 Jun 57k put bought at 53v and the 19 Jun 66k call trading at 43v.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 9 Spot is down, with BTC at $61,700 and ETH at $1,700 as of this writing. Tech stocks continued to weigh on indexes. The weakness has been attributed to a mix of factors, including profit-taking after the recent run-up, rising rate concerns, and the upcoming SpaceX IPO. Vols were largely unchanged. BTC December basis is trading around 3.7% annualized. Flows featured 1dte calls and puts lifted.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 8 Spot is flat, with BTC at $63,100 and ETH at $1,700 as of this writing. OpenAI confidentially filed IPO paperwork with the SEC, potentially setting the stage for a public listing this fall, though the company said the timing remains undecided. This week features May CPI on Wednesday and the long-awaited SpaceX IPO on Friday. Fronts retraced while put skew remains. Flows featured a 10 Jun / 11 Jun put calendar. A December risk reversal also traded, with the 85k call sold at 43v and the 45k put bought at 52v.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 4 Spot is down, with BTC at $63,500 and ETH at $1,800 as of this writing. Broadcom shares fell 13% after guidance on AI demand failed to meet inflated expectations, weighing on the broader semiconductor and AI complex. Fronts retraced during the session, and put skew eased slightly. Flows featured the 26 Jun 68k/74k call spread and the 26 Jun 65k/60k put spread.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 3 Spot is down, with BTC at $64,200 and ETH at $1,800 as of this writing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Senate to support the Clarity Act and said he wants legislation passed this summer. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that rate hikes may be needed later this year to contain inflation. Fronts and mids climbed while backs were largely unchanged. BTC put skew widened while ETH skew retraced. ETH flows were noteworthy, with the 12 Jun 1.9k/2k and 26 Jun 2k calls lifted. There was also OTM BTC action with the 26 Jun 55k put bought at 58v and the 45k put bought at 81v.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 2 Spot is down, with BTC at $66,700 and ETH at $1,900 as of this writing. The streak of spot ETF outflows has now reached 11 consecutive sessions, totaling $3.4B. SpaceX is reportedly targeting a $1.75T valuation in its IPO planned for next week (June 12). Fronts are up ~10 vols and put skew widened following spot weakness. Basis is negative through 6 Jun. Flows featured the 5 Jun 70k put sold, while the 12 Jun 67k put and the 19 Jun 65k/60k put spread were bought.

Paradigm Session Recap – June 1 Spot is down, with BTC at $71,100 and ETH at $2,000 as of this writing. Anthropic has confidentially filed for an IPO expected this fall. Strategy sold 32 BTC last week, its first bitcoin sale since late 2022. This week features several Fed speakers and May nonfarm payrolls on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. BTC fronts are up a couple vols while ETH fronts are down. Both majors remain put skew. Flows featured the 26 Jun 85k call sold at 36v and the 12 Jun 70k put lifted at 37v.

Paradigm Session Recap – May 28 Spot is down, with BTC at $73,400 and ETH at $2,000 as of this writing. Anthropic raised a $65B Series H at a $965B post-money valuation. Stocks climbed, with all three major indexes closing at record highs. April PCE inflation came in slightly below forecasts. Fronts retraced a couple vols while skew was largely unchanged. Flows featured a 1 Jun BTC call condor and the 5 Jun 2k put sold at 41v.

Paradigm Session Recap – May 27 Spot is down, with BTC at $74,400 and ETH at $2,000 as of this writing. The streak of spot ETF outflows continues. On Friday, $6.3B in BTC options are set to expire with a max pain price of 75k, alongside $1.3B in ETH options with a max pain price of 2.2k. Fronts and mids climbed slightly, with BTC's now in the mid 30s and ETH's in the high 40s. Flows featured the 26 Jun 70k put lifted at 38v and a 31 Jul 1.6k/2.7k risk reversal.

Paradigm Session Recap – May 26 Spot is down, with BTC at $75,800 and ETH at $2,100 as of this writing. Stocks closed higher after the long weekend, with Micron Technology surpassing a $1T market cap. ETH and SOL treasury companies Sharplink and Forward Industries are set to join the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes in June. Fronts bounced back a couple vols. Both majors remain put skew. BTC flows featured a put condor sold alongside OTM calls lifted (25 Sep 160k at 50v).

Paradigm Session Recap – May 25 Spot is flat, with BTC at $77,200 and ETH at $2,100 as of this writing. US markets were closed today for Memorial Day, while Hong Kong and the UK also observed market holidays. This week features retailer earnings and April PCE inflation on Thursday. Consensus expects headline inflation to tick higher on energy, though without signs of broader pressure. Fronts are down slightly and put skew eased. Flows featured a custom 29 May spread, with the 76k put bought at 30v, the 74k put sold at 36v, and the 72k put sold at 43v. ETH flows were muted.

Paradigm Session Recap – May 21 Spot is flat, with BTC at $77,500 and ETH at $2,100 as of this writing. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.2B in outflows over the last five sessions as macro risks build and basis remains suppressed. Tomorrow, $1.5B in BTC options are set to expire with a max pain price of 78.5k, alongside $275M in ETH options with a max pain price of 2.2k. Fronts and mids eased a couple vols while backs were largely unchanged. Both majors remain put skew. BTC flows featured a 25 May 77k/75k/73k/71k put condor, while ETH saw a 25 May 2.15k put trade.

Paradigm Session Recap – May 20 Spot is up, with BTC at $77,600 and ETH at $2,100 as of this writing. Nvidia reported record-high sales and earnings while also raising guidance for the current quarter. Shares initially rallied before retracing in after-hours trading. BTC fronts eased into the low 30s while backs held in the mid 40s. Flows featured calls rolled from May into June. ETH flows were muted.

Paradigm Session Recap – May 20 Spot is up, with BTC at $77,600 and ETH at $2,100 as of this writing. Nvidia reported record-high sales and earnings while also raising guidance for the current quarter. Shares initially rallied before retracing in after-hours trading. BTC fronts eased into the low 30s while backs held in the mid 40s. Flows featured calls rolled from May into June. ETH flows were muted.

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