SMTC Traders®(Only for Education)

Global Market Assessment (26 Jul Overnight) Positive Factors ✅ Gift Nifty indicates a strong positive opening. No major weekend geopolitical escalation sufficient to create panic selling. Stable USDINR is supportive for FII sentiment. Oil is not indicating a fresh inflation shock. Gold is not showing aggressive risk-off buying. Neutral MSCI flows remain stock-specific rather than broad index-negative. US markets ended without major risk-off damage. Overall Bias Morning Bias: BULLISH But... A 170-point gap-up creates a high probability of: Gap & Go (30%) Gap Fill (40%) Gap Up then Range (30%) Institutional traders usually wait for the first 15-30 minutes instead of chasing the open.

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Linear and Data Model - Bullish Non Linear Model - Berish

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I said in this video. 24K in breaks means... check the video at 3:50

Negative 200 Points, its already finished

Given the nearly 180-point negative Gift Nifty indication, patience is likely to be rewarded more than trying to catch the very first move. Institutions often use gap openings to trap impatient buyers and sellers before revealing the day's real direction.

Between 10–11 AM Watch whether: 23800 is reclaimed or 23650 breaks This will likely decide the trend for the day.

Institutional Game Plan Before 10 AM High volatility expected. Avoid chasing the first candle.

Bullish Only above 23820 Close ==> 23920/24020/24100 Breakout Failure Level 23745 BEARISH Only Below 23650 Close ==> 23580/23500/23420 Breakdown Failure 23720

Institutional View Since Gift Nifty is already below this support, there is a good chance of PE writers getting trapped Initial panic selling Then either short covering bounce continuation if 23600 breaks decisively

Major PE Writers (Support) Observation Fresh Put writing shifted higher 23600 → 23800 → 23900 Institutional support appears around

23800-23900

Major CE Writers (Resistance) Observation Fresh writing is visible near 24500 25000 Strong resistance remains above market.

🌍 Overnight Global Summary Gift Nifty Previous Close: 23869.60 Gift Nifty: 23690 Gap indication:

Around -180 points

This indicates a weak opening. Macro Factors Negative Gift Nifty trading sharply lower. Profit booking after previous session. Risk-off sentiment globally. USD strength mildly negative for emerging markets. Neutral Oil prices are stable. Gold slightly firm (risk-off). INR expected to weaken slightly if gap-down persists. Overall Global Bias:

Mild Bearish to Neutral

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