SMTC Traders®(Only for Education)

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Top Strikes By Volume and Value

The market is not showing a strong overnight directional edge. The highest-probability approach is to let price confirm above 24050 or below 23920 before initiating option buying. Inside that range, disciplined option selling with strict risk management has the statistical advantage on weekly expiry.

Overall Bias Opening Bias: Neutral Intraday Bias: Range with breakout potential Institutional Bias: Sell volatility unless price escapes 23920-24050.

Risk Management Do not trade the first 5-minute candle. Wait for confirmation after 9:20-9:25 AM. Avoid buying options while Nifty stays between 23920 and 24050. That zone is likely to destroy option premiums through time decay, a weekly ritual in which option buyers generously donate money to option sellers.

| Level | Importance | | ----- | ---------------- | | 24200 | Major Resistance | | 24100 | Resistance | | 24050 | Bullish Trigger | | 24000 | Pivot | | 23920 | Bearish Trigger | | 23850 | Support | | 23750 | Strong Support |

Bullish Observed Breakout Level - above 24050 On Closing Basis 24090/140/200 Breakout Failure Level - 23990 Bearish Observed Breakdown Level - 23920 23870/820/750 Breakdown Failure Level -23970

Bhavcopy Analysis Maximum CE Open Interest 24200 CE ≈ 14.74 Million contracts Major resistance. Maximum PE Open Interest 24000 PE ≈ 14.06 Million contracts Strong long-term support. This shows institutions still have massive downside protection while keeping substantial call writing above current price. Immediate resistance will therefore come from the nearer strikes around 24000-24200.

Overnight Global View Based on the overnight backdrop: 🌏 Gift Nifty is flat, indicating no strong overnight directional cue. 🛢 Crude Oil remains a risk factor but there is no overnight shock large enough to change today's opening bias. 💵 USDINR remains stable. No panic risk from currency. 🟡 Gold holding firm suggests some defensive positioning globally, but not outright risk-off. 🌍 No major overnight geopolitical escalation capable of materially changing Indian market sentiment. MSCI/global flows remain the primary institutional driver. Without a fresh global trigger, today's move is more likely to be driven by expiry positioning than macro news. FII / DII View FIIs continue to be active in index derivatives. Weekly expiry means aggressive intraday position adjustments are expected. Expect volatility after 11 AM and especially between 1 PM and 3 PM.

Linear Model - Bullish Non Linear and Data Model - Bearish

Good Morning Super Traders Have a Great Profitable Expiry

Out of station will be back on Tuesday

Trading Psychology Because expiry is on 28 July, avoid averaging losing option-buying positions. Gamma can make premiums double quickly, but it can also erase them just as fast. Institutions often wait for confirmation after the opening imbalance instead of chasing the first green candle. Boring discipline continues to outperform exciting regret.

Institutional Trading Plan 9:15-9:30 No trade. 9:30-10:00 Watch whether buyers defend the gap. Above 23960 Bullish. Below 23820 Bearish. Between 23840-23950 Avoid directional trades. Likely premium decay.

Observed Breakout Level 23960 - Closing Basis, - 24010/24060/24100 Failure Level 23920 Observed Breakdown Level Wait. Only if

23820 breaks with strong volume. Then 23770/720/680 Failure Level 23860

Institutional Market Structure Resistance Zone 23930-23960 Very important. If this breaks with volume: Target becomes 23990 24040 24100 Support Zone 23820-23840 Below this, 23770 23720 become possible.

Global Market Assessment (26 Jul Overnight) Positive Factors ✅ Gift Nifty indicates a strong positive opening. No major weekend geopolitical escalation sufficient to create panic selling. Stable USDINR is supportive for FII sentiment. Oil is not indicating a fresh inflation shock. Gold is not showing aggressive risk-off buying. Neutral MSCI flows remain stock-specific rather than broad index-negative. US markets ended without major risk-off damage. Overall Bias Morning Bias: BULLISH But... A 170-point gap-up creates a high probability of: Gap & Go (30%) Gap Fill (40%) Gap Up then Range (30%) Institutional traders usually wait for the first 15-30 minutes instead of chasing the open.