DWF Labs Broadcast

We've just launched our Substack. Every week we publish our perspectives on the markets (and more) through the lens of a market-tested liquidity provider, investor and incubator. → Eyes on the Market, our weekly market briefing → Research from DWF Ventures → Data stories and commentary Subscribe to be the first to read whenever new pieces drop: https://dwflabs.substack.com

Eyes on the Market, Vol. 27: At Cost Basis BTC broke below $80K on Saturday, under Glassnode’s estimated $80.2K average cost basis for ETF and treasury-company holders. Brent closed Friday at $116.72, its highest close since April 29, as Gulf attacks reached Saudi energy infrastructure. Key observations: 1) BTC ETFs took in $301.2M, but IBIT did all the work. It drew $565.7M while every other fund combined lost $264.5M. 2) Liquidations hit both sides. Shorts lost $498.1M as BTC rallied into Wednesday, then longs lost $1.23B from Thursday to Saturday. 3) ETH ETFs posted a fourth straight outflow week, erasing 75% of the year’s inflows. 4) Polymarket prices a 95% hold for Wednesday’s FOMC. BTC is sitting on the level we’re watching, about $79.6K. Once it closes 7% below its 20-day high, ETF flows have historically flipped from net buying to net selling within a week. Saturday’s low went through that line intraday, but no daily close has crossed it yet. Full issue: https://dwflabs.substack.com/publish/home

Eyes on the Market, Vol. 27: At Cost Basis BTC broke below $80K on Saturday, under Glassnode’s estimated $80.2K average cost basis for ETF and treasury-company holders. Brent closed Friday at $116.72, its highest close since April 29, as Gulf attacks reached Saudi energy infrastructure. Key observations: BTC ETFs took in $301.2M, but IBIT did all the work. It drew $565.7M while every other fund combined lost $264.5M. Liquidations hit both sides. Shorts lost $498.1M as BTC rallied into Wednesday, then longs lost $1.23B from Thursday to Saturday. ETH ETFs posted a fourth straight outflow week, erasing 75% of the year’s inflows. Polymarket prices a 95% hold for Wednesday’s FOMC. BTC is sitting on the level we’re watching, about $79.6K. Once it closes 7% below its 20-day high, ETF flows have historically flipped from net buying to net selling within a week. Saturday’s low went through that line intraday, but no daily close has crossed it yet. Full issue: [link]

Incoming: Hot Desk Wednesdays. Come build (and work) with us. Free desk, good people, connection guaranteed. October 28 → https://luma.com/th1tt2tg November 4 → https://luma.com/qt4iagy8 November 11 → https://luma.com/mivnxe1i Spots limited, registration recommended.

Do ETF flows predict where Bitcoin goes next? Not really. The common view since the spot ETFs launched: TradFi money buys Bitcoin’s dips, sells its tops, and has made sell-offs easier to survive. We tested that against nearly three years of data. 1) ETF investors sell the falls and buy the rallies. Outflows came in 7 of 8 sell-offs, and inflows in all 9 rallies. The last two sell-offs saw the heaviest selling of the ETF era: −$6.9B and −$8.2B. 2) Flows follow price; they don’t lead it. They correlate 0.54 with BTC’s prior five days and 0.03 with the next five. 3) Selling starts at about −7%. A 7% fall from the 20-day high flips flows from +$74m a day to −$72m. 4) Sell-offs are smoother, not shallower. They fall as far as before (median −21%), but more slowly, and crash days dropped from about 6 a year to 2. 5) IBIT carries no extra signal. 6) Big outflows on quiet days are a warning, not a signal. They preceded sharp falls in two sell-offs and rallies in four other cases. Full report here.

Building and collaboration IRL. At this week’s HotDesk Wednesday, we brought our Dubai community together for a chance to connect, work, and learn. Grahame from HypeWRKS hosted a workshop on how GenAI is reshaping video production and how teams can collaborate at scale. To join next week’s HotDesk event, register here: https://luma.com/th1tt2tg

Catch our team in Dubai 🇦🇪 Andrei Grachev and Alessia Baumgartner will be speaking at Blockchain Life on 1-2 December 2026. See you there.

Catch Lingling Jiang, Partner, at the Digital Assets Forum in New York City on 13 November 2026. Register to see her on stage: https://eblockchainconvention.com/digital-assets-forum-new-york/#tickets

Eyes on the Market Vol. 26: Inflation Running Hot BTC fell 2.47% from Monday’s open to Friday’s close. The Nasdaq fell 4.43% on an AI selloff. BTC lost a little over half as much as tech. What moved markets this week: → Core CPI beat. Headline rose 0.6% m/m as expected, but core rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected and 2.6% y/y against 2.5%. Annual core had hit its lowest level since March 2021 a month ago. That low has now reversed. → PPI rose 1.3%, its largest monthly gain since March 2022. Goods prices rose 2.6%, a record for the series. Crude oil inputs jumped 28.3%, costs businesses have not yet passed on. → October hike odds on Polymarket jumped from 22% to 48% on CPI, then fell to 13% after Warsh declined to signal the October 27–28 decision. → MSCI adopted its non-operating company screen. Strategy and Metaplanet are on the provisional deletion list, effective November 30. → ETFs lost $548.5M. Full issue here.

Tokenized equities grew 483% this year, from $654M to $3.8B. Usage grew even faster. Transfer volume rose 41.8x and spot DEX volume rose 55x, against 5.8x for market cap. DeFi active TVL reached $313M, about 20x where it started the year. Issuer concentration is thinning too. Ondo still leads at $1B, but its share fell from 56% to 26% as Binance’s bStocks, launched in June, grew to 24% of the market. At $3.8B, tokenized equities are just 0.005% of the US equity market. Lots more room to go. The full breakdown is in The Bright Side, Vol. 2: https://x.com/DWFLabs/status/2111064912235835646?s=20

The CEOs of Nasdaq and Franklin Templeton were at TOKEN2049 this year, and the conversations shifted with them. Less about the theoretical potential of crypto, more about how the technology tangibly improves finance. Everything we expected crypto to do for finance over the past five years is finally playing out. Slowly, but accelerating fast. With 6 stages, 250+ speakers, 600 side events and ~25,000 attendees, plenty was easy to miss. Here’s what we believe mattered most: 1) Tokenization 2) Institutions and DeFi 3) Institutional flows 4) AI x crypto 5) Security 6) Regulation 7) Exchanges and neobanks Full recap: https://x.com/DWFLabs/status/2109947549264368033?s=20

Join us for HotDesk Wednesday at our Dubai office 🤝 Register to work alongside our team and enjoy access to our premium workspace: https://luma.com/6ouwmemk The office address will be shared upon approval.

Day 1 of TOKEN2049 ✅ We had a great day connecting with you all. See you tomorrow. #DWFLabsxTOKEN2049

Notes from Managing Partner Andrei Grachev's TOKEN2049 keynote "The Power of Vision". Change is constant. Each year comes with unique challenges and factors - from politics, regulatory and technological shifts, the macro economy, and good/bad actors. There's a conflict between old and new: - New generation teams are lean and adapt quickly. They make bigger moves. - Older teams are bloated and struggle to keep up, trying to continue with old habits and safe moves. In established markets, for example the CEX landscape, it’s extremely difficult to compete. Teams that find ways to capture blue ocean markets are ones with large upside such as Tether for stablecoins in the early days, Hyperliquid for perp DEXs. Areas of potential growth: - TradFi perps in the next 12-24 months - Payments - AI x Crypto The markets flows between quantity and quality, freedom and regulation. #DWFLabsxTOKEN2049

In 30 minutes: Andrei Grachev, Managing Partner, will be taking the stage for his keynote "The Power of Vision" at TOKEN2049. Directions to the stage 👆 #DWFLabsxTOKEN2049

Meet our team today at TOKEN2049 🔥 Find us at Level 5, Booth MB5-6.

Meet our team today at TOKEN2049 🔥

We and the Falcon Finance team are getting ready to welcome our guests at DWF Labs Haus. Make sure to try your luck to win a prize at our gachapon machine 🕹️

Catch Andrei Grachev at Gamma Prime's Investing Summit today at 4:20PM GMT+8 on the panel "Old Money, New Bets". See him onstage: https://gammaprime.com/investing-summits/gammaprime-investing-summit-2026-singapore

Happening tomorrow at TOKEN2049: Andrei Grachev, Managing Partner, will be taking the stage for his keynote "The Power of Vision". 📍 Bit Digital Stage, Level 5 🗓 7 October 2026, 12PM GMT+8 Here's where to find him 👆 #DWFLabsxTOKEN2049