DWF Labs Broadcast

Key takeaways from our latest Eyes on the Market: 1) BTC had its best week since March 2023. BTC rose 23.6% to $77.7K and ETH 31.31% to $2.46K, while the S&P 500 fell 1.49% and the Nasdaq 2.26%. 2) The Treasury doubled long-end buybacks and markets read it as yield curve control. Operations go from $2B to at least $4B, effective September 9. 3) Volatility broke out. BTC DVOL went from a 12-month low of 33.91 on August 17 to 43.57, moving from the 6.8th percentile to the 57th. August 19 was the eighth-largest liquidation event on record at $2.99B. 4) Open interest grew but little leverage growth. Aggregate OI rose 16.5% to $137.5B on flat coin-denominated OI. The froth is in the narrative coins. 5) ETFs saw $2.6B of inflows, their best combined week since October 2025. BTC took $1.9B and ETH $692.6M, both on five straight inflow days. BTC ETFs are still net negative $2.8B for 2026. Full post here: https://x.com/DWFLabs/status/2091873796416520582?s=20

Tokenized collectibles have become one of onchain crypto's largest revenue categories, with a combined $260M+ in cumulative net revenue across Collector Crypt and Courtyard. However, sustainability is an aspect to take into consideration. Collectibles existed even back in the 19th century in the form of antiques, but the major surge in real-world popularity of TCGs like Pokemon has only happened in recent years. Gamblers seek a positive expected value and speculative crypto-native traders and farmers look for exposure to a volatile asset class, but the acquisition of collectibles is more about an underlying narrative and cultural demand. The bull case depends on onboarding real collectors and building infrastructure that survives when speculative interest falls. DWF Ventures on structural vs. cyclical growth for onchain collectibles: https://x.com/DWFVentures/status/2088249290862760130

Compute became an asset class this year. 2026 hyperscaler capex guidance sums to roughly $700B. NVIDIA has now organized platforms designed to mobilize over $500B of third-party capital with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR. What's missing is an open and accessible market. Compute credit today sits in private vehicles. It cannot be transferred, priced, or pledged. There is no exit and no observable price, so participating means holding to maturity. That market should serve institutions, corporates, startups, and smaller allocators alike. Falcon Finance is building the rails for it. The framework is designed so a tokenized GPU forward can be tradable on secondary markets, posted as collateral onchain and accessed by anyone. Read more here.

Key takeaways from our latest Eyes on the Market: 1) Equities hit record highs and crypto lagged. The S&P rose 0.44% to 7,785.76, a third straight weekly gain, and the Russell 2000 added 3.15%. BTC fell 3.08% to $62.8K and total market cap fell 2.22% to $2.160T. 2) CPI landed exactly on consensus. Headline 3.4% y/y, core 2.5%. Polymarket now prices 75% hold against 25% hike, versus 56% and 41% on August 10. 3) Regulation Crypto proposal vote delayed. No replacement date for the back up proposal for CLARITY. CLARITY sits at 20% on Polymarket, down from 25%. Both the legislative and regulatory paths are now stalled. 4) Q2 13Fs show banks growing ETH exposure three times faster than BTC. Morgan Stanley added 18.6% to ETH against 3.7% to BTC in coin terms; JPMorgan added 67.3% to ETH against 12.2% to BTC. 5) BTC ETFs saw $385.2M in net outflows. ETH ETFs lost $3.0M. ETH continues to hold up better than BTC. Read the full piece: https://x.com/DWFLabs/status/2089337076684640304?s=20

Gacha-style collectible platforms are some of crypto's largest revenue generators. $266m in cumulative net revenue between Collector Crypt and Courtyard. Collector Crypt did just under $16m in June, up 75% month over month. Courtyard cleared $20m+ in June and again in July. The upward trend reflects growing product-market fit. But how much of this growth is durable, and how much is cyclical? DWF Ventures explores the topic in their latest piece: https://x.com/DWFVentures/status/2088249290862760130?s=20

Gacha-style collectible platforms are some of crypto's largest revenue generators. $266m in cumulative net revenue between Collector Crypt and Courtyard. Collector Crypt did just under $16m in June, up 75% month over month. Courtyard cleared $20m+ in June and again in July. The upward trend reflects growing product-market fit. But how much of this growth is durable, and how much is cyclical? DWF Ventures explores the topic in their latest piece: https://x.com/DWFVentures/status/2088249290862760130?s=20

BTC and ETH ETFs saw $1.1B of net inflows the past week. Their best week in ~4 months. Yet, crypto market cap only moved 0.32%. Over the same window the S&P 500 gained 3.31% and the Nasdaq 4.53%. ETH and BTC stayed relatively flat. That is one of five topics covered in Vol 18 of Eyes on the Market: 1) CLARITY missed its August 7 deadline. Passage odds hit 13% before recovering to 25%, with a first Senate vote now waiting on September 14. 2) Payrolls fell 23,000 against +80,000 expected, taking September hike odds from 63% to 41% 3) Strategy sold over $100M worth of BTC for a second straight week, at a 14.8% realised loss, to hold STRC near par. 4) Crypto volatility drops close to the lowest it's been in the past year. Futures Open Interest grows 3.6% while funding rates on Binance fall 63%. 5) Crypto ETFs see $1.1B of net weekly inflows. On a relative basis, ETH ETF flows have now beaten BTC's since June. Read the full article here: https://x.com/DWFLabs/status/2087162623154323620?s=20

Prediction markets have been around as a concept for a long time. 1503: betting on the next Pope 1916: Americans betting on the presidential race 1988: Iowa Electronic Markets, the first modern prediction market infrastructure built, gained traction 2018: Augur peaked at 265 users and failed due to poor UX and prohibitive gas fees. In 2024, prediction markets broke out during the U.S. presidential election. Today, volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket have crossed $58B. Read more about the history of prediction markets and what has led to their recent explosive growth in our article here.

Six months ago, RWA perps didn't exist as a market. Today they represent 37% of onchain daily perp volume at peak, which is a 100% growth in four months. Commodities and stocks currently see the most traction, and equities specifically have been accelerating. Traders are seeking access to regional markets that traditional brokerages block based on jurisdiction, and being onchain removes that friction entirely. CEXs are catching on, with Binance partnering with traditional brokerage infrastructure and Coinbase launching pre-IPO perps. But onchain venues still lead on factors such as velocity. DWF Ventures discusses where the edge for the market moving forward lies.

Prediction markets crossed $58B in monthly volume in July. Up 11x from the election peak. They've gone from a niche product to having their odds quoted across media outlets, their data on Bloomberg Terminals, and their markets integrated into large brokerages. Our latest piece covers the history of prediction markets, how they finally broke through, and where they go next. Read the full article here: https://x.com/DWFLabs/status/2085359186557485170?s=20

Prediction markets crossed $58B in monthly volume in July. Up 11x from the election peak. They've gone from a niche product to having their odds quoted across media outlets, their data on Bloomberg Terminals, and their markets integrated into large brokerages. Our latest piece covers the history of prediction markets, how they finally broke through, and where they go next. Read the full article here: https://x.com/DWFLabs/status/2085359186557485170?s=20

6 key takeaways from our latest Eyes on the Market: 1) Crypto underperformed equities this week. S&P 500 +0.73%, Nasdaq +1.80%, while BTC fell 2.78% to $63,556 and ETH fell 3.57% to $1,884.60. 2) FOMC held for a fifth straight meeting at 3.50%-3.75%, but the vote flipped from unanimous in June to 9-3, with three dissents pushing for a hike. Polymarket puts September hike odds at 59%, up from 31% a month ago. 3) BOJ held at 1.0% on an 8-1 vote and signaled a September hike is likely. 4) Japan intervened to defend the yen, buying back an estimated $59B on July 30. The US Treasury joined Friday funded by selling euros, its first direct yen support since 2011. Yen spikes 4% from the interventions. 5) BTC ETFs closed July at +$173M net, reversing back-to-back losing months in May and June. ETH ETFs closed July at +$347M. 6) BTC volatility sits near 52-week lows even as bond-market volatility (MOVE index) jumped 7.7%. Read the full piece here: https://x.com/DWFLabs/status/2084262912835891689?s=20

Catch up with us in our July recap 👇 1. Andrei Grachev, Managing Partner, was featured in Yahoo Finance and CCN discussing Strategy's Bitcoin sales and long-term effects, noting that markets are pricing clarity over volume. 2. Andrei was also quoted in CoinDesk on the Fed's interest rate decision, framing it as the Fed prioritizing its inflation mandate over growth concerns. 3. Artem Tolkachev, Chief RWA Officer at Falcon Finance, published an op-ed in CoinDesk arguing that collateral, not yield, will decide which stablecoins win. 4. Martin Lee, Content & Market Insights Lead, was quoted in CoinDesk on how weekend perps are reshaping oil markets. Weekend share has grown 25% since March. 5. We published Eyes on the Market Vol. 14 - "The Bid That Got Pulled", covering what happens when liquidity retreats faster than sentiment turns. 6. Eyes on the Market Vol. 15 discussed how and why market structure can shift even when the macro picture doesn't. 7. Eyes on the Market Vol. 16 - "Falling in Line" covered a red week across crypto and tech, investigating the size of BTC's drawdown relative to equities. 8. DWF Ventures published new research on prediction markets, examining the trade-off between commercial growth and forecasting accuracy. 9. DWF Ventures also published a deep dive on RWA perpetuals, covering the state of the market and where success lies in the future. 10. Falcon Finance launched the Falcon Card, extending collateral to USDf and into real-world spending. The stablecoin stack now has a payment rail. 11. We renewed our strategic partnership with the DMCC Crypto Centre, continuing support for projects in the UAE through fundraising, advisory, and ecosystem initiatives. 12. Andrei Grachev and Alessia Baumgartner will be at Blockchain Life 2026 in Dubai on December 1-2. 13. Lingling Jiang will be speaking at the Digital Asset Yield Summit during TOKEN2049. See you in August 🛠

Join us for HotDesk Wednesday at our Dubai office 🤝 Register to work alongside our team and enjoy access to our premium workspace: https://luma.com/g0xbbczh The office address will be shared upon approval.

On-chain RWA share of daily perp volume has 2x-ed over the last 4 months to 37%. Yet, the RWA perpetuals market is still 30–60x behind crypto perps and CME equity futures, with room to capture that flow. On-chain venues are seeing better retention compared to centralized counterparts. They drive innovation, liquidity and price discovery while CEXs and brokerages serve as distribution. 24/7 markets and pre-IPO price discovery have emerged as 2 proven use cases. As frontends proliferate, the real edge is in developments on the backend. The four categories that would determine which venue wins lies in: 1) Liquidity 2) New markets velocity 3) Pricing infrastructure 4) Licensing/regulatory positioning. DWF Ventures explores the state of RWA perps and where opportunities for builders lie: https://x.com/DWFVentures/status/2082451137945629132?s=20

On-chain RWA share of daily perp volume has 2x-ed over the last 4 months to 37%. Yet, the RWA perpetuals market is still 30–60x behind crypto perps and CME equity futures, with room to capture that flow. On-chain venues are seeing better retention compared to centralized counterparts. They drive innovation, liquidity and price discovery while CEXs and brokerages serve as distribution. 24/7 markets and pre-IPO price discovery have emerged as 2 proven use cases. As frontends proliferate, the real edge is in developments on the backend. The four categories that would determine which venue wins lies in: 1) Liquidity 2) New markets velocity 3) Pricing infrastructure 4) Licensing/regulatory positioning. DWF Ventures explores the state of RWA perps and where opportunities for builders lie: https://x.com/DWFVentures/status/2082451137945629132?s=20

Key takeaways from our latest issue of Eyes on the Market: 1) Crypto fell with tech: Total market cap -2.04%, BTC -2.28% (ending a 4-week green streak), ETH -0.65%. Nasdaq -2.26%, S&P -0.40%. 2) CLARITY Act odds fell back to the high-30s after senators opposed the merged ethics draft. August 7 is the hard deadline before Senate recess. 3) Polymarket's odds for a hold decision on the upcoming FOMC went down from 93% a week ago to 72% today. 4) Liquidations spiked 166% to $662M on 27 July (highest since June 25), long/short flipped to 51.46% short-tilted and Open Interest dropped by 3.44%. 5) BTC ETFs snapped a 7-day inflow streak: $477M in outflows July 23–27. ETH ETFs held up better, only 1 outflow day in the same window. 6) BTC's selloffs have historically been greater than equities during risk-off moves. This week, that gap compressed to roughly 1x. Dive into the full article: https://x.com/DWFLabs/status/2082088759852671189?s=20

We'll be at Blockchain Life in Dubai on December 1-2 2026 🤝 Andrei Grachev, Managing Partner, and Alessia Baumgartner, VP of Ecosystems, will be onstage across the main forum.

Tokenized equity holders cross 752K, up 92% in 30 days. Robinhood is driving most of it. Since launching on 1 July, they've raced to 328K holders, 44% market share. But the total value has lagged at $44M, far behind xStocks ($487M) and Ondo ($857M). At the other extreme: Securitize has just 50 holders holding $245M. Average value per holder across the 5 platforms: Securitize: $4.9M Figure: $1.03M Ondo: $5.9K xStocks: $1.9K Robinhood: $134 There's a clear split in holder base across issuers. Securitize and Figure lean institutional. Robinhood towards retail. xStocks and Ondo have a mix of both through strategic integrations and partnerships. Original tweet: https://x.com/DWFLabs/status/2081718556891431392?s=20