Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 미국 경제가 성장하는데 기여가 가장 큰 서비스업 경기가 지속 둔화되고 있으며, 서비스업은 주거 부문을 제외 한 물가지표가 하락하기 9개월 전부터 둔화됐고, 이는 시장 참여자들이 금리에 반영하고 있는 통화정책경로가 중앙은행의 그것보다 나음을 암시함. 생각보다 이르게 올 수 있는 긴축정책의 끝은 채권과 위험자산에 반가운 신호임. Growth in the service sector turned lower long before inflation began to decline. Service sector growth as measured by the ISM began to dip some 9-months before inflation as measured by CPI minus rent and shelter started falling. The drop in services, the largest contributor to US economic growth suggests markets pricing of the path of interest rates is more accurate than the Fed’s. A welcome sign for bond bulls and eventually risk assets in general as the Fed moves away from QT sooner than later.

Bottom-line: 단기에 금리가 상승하면서 기업들이 가능한 최대로 대출을 통해 자금을 조달하는 것을 피하고 있음. 자금조달 시장은 지난 1분기 4,930억 달러로 전년 대비 -43% 감소한 실적을 냈고, 이는 2010년 이후 최저 수준의 신디케이트론 실적임. 특히 다수 은행의 부실 이후 은행도 대출 태도가 급격하게 악화되었고, 최근 악화 된 경제환경에 따라 기업이 자금을 차입하는 동인 중 하나인 인수합병 거래도 큰 폭으로 감소했음. 전문가는 2분기 이후 조달 시장이 활력을 찾길 기대하지만 이 또한 경제 상황과 투자자들의 심리에 달려있음. Faced with soaring interest rates and market whiplash, companies are turning away from the loan market in a way that hasn’t been seen this decade. Companies are delaying borrowing if they can, given how quickly rates have climbed in recent months, analysts say. Global sales of syndicated loans fell 43% in the first quarter to $493 billion, the lowest since 2010. “The new issue loan market was previously a Scoobie Doo ghost town, especially after the bank failures,” said Scott Macklin, director of leveraged loans at AllianceBernstein. “Now loan buyers are returning in droves, though there are few new loans available". What’s more, several banks organizing corporate financing withdrew plans to bring loans to market last month and M&A activity, a big driver of loan sales, has slowed dramatically. It’s not clear how long the trend will last. Loan deals could pick up in the second quarter, as market risk-on sentiment returns as worries surrounding the bank sector fade. The US leveraged loan market has multiple deals with commitments due this week, three of them that emerged on Monday. “M&A may be a use of built-up corporate cash balances, we believe, though a souring economic outlook could temper appetite for deals,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Neil Sipes and Alison Williams wrote in a note on Monday.

Bottom-line: 크리스찬 디올의 가을 패션쇼가 지난 3월 30일 인도 뭄바이에서 열렸고, 당일 지배회사인 LVMH의 주가가 새로운 고점을 갱신함. 디올의 패션쇼에 인도를 추가하는 결정을 내린데는 부상하는 국가의 부와 그에 따른 소비여력이 충분한 소비자에 있다고 볼 수 있는데, 조사에 따르면 인도는 119명의 억만장자가 있고, 2018년부터 2022년 사이 매일 70명의 백만장자가 탄생했다고 함. 인구 14억에 이르는 이 국가는 부와 소비를 위한 충분한 성장 잠재력을 가지고 있음에도 불구하고 개척되지 않은 시장이라는 점을 주목하고 있음. Christian Dior Couture showcased its Fall 2023 collection in Mumbai on March 30, becoming the first fashion house to unveil the latest lines in India as luxury brands tap new markets in a hunt for their next billions. Everything from sari-inspired skirts to boleros to vibrantly colored outfits in silks, including those in an Indian pink, were on display, with the Gateway of India as the backdrop in the show led by Dior’s first female creative director, Maria Grazia Chiuri. Parent group LVMH’s shares rose as much as 1% to 838.7 euros ($913), touching a record high during market hours on Friday. Dior, the second-biggest brand of billionaire Bernard Arnault’s French luxury behemoth LVMH, and the decision to add India to its seasonal schedule shows a rising interest to tap the nation’s rising wealth. India currently has 119 billionaires, according to Oxfam, with the country estimated to produce 70 new millionaires every day between 2018 and 2022. It also points to Dior’s ability to bring entry-level buyers into the LVMH realm — a rising group of spenders, especially in the country of 1.4 billion people, through its cosmetics to perfumes to bags offerings. “It’s a hugely untapped market with middle class on the rise and lots more and lots more, by the year, millionaires,” says Deborah Aitken, senior analyst for luxury goods at Bloomberg Intelligence. “It’s vibrant, it’s new design, new color, new technologies into the luxury space, which is hugely needed“.

Bottom-line: 주식 시장은 회의론자, 불신자로 가득 차 있으며, 이것이 주가가 계속 상승하는 이유가 될 수 있음. 투자자들의 주식에 대한 배분은 18년래 최저치를 기록하고, 닷컴 거품 이후 가장 오랜 기간인 15개월 연속 5% 이상의 현금을 보유하고 있으며, 경기침체를 감안한 거래를 이어가고 있음. 하지만 모두가 한 방향을 이야기할 때면 반대 방향으로의 큰 변동이 발생하기 쉬운 법이며, S&P 500 지수가 그것을 보여줬는데, 올해 1분기도 +7% 상승 마감하면서 14번의 약세장 중 단 두 번 있었던(1938년과 1981년) 일을 40년만에 재현했음. 이처럼 주식시장의 상승은 시가총액을 4조 달러 가까이 증가시켰지만 여전히 비관론자들이 많은 상태임. 하지만 주식시장의 상승 기간이 길어지면서, 과연 약세장의 반등 정도에 그치는게 맞는지에 대한 의문이 커지고 있음. 주식시장이 놀라울 정도로 강한 힘을 보여주고 있는데 반해 투자자들의 주식 보유 규모는 턱없이 가벼운 상태에 있고, 투자자들이 움직이기 시작한다면, 그 변화는 매우 빠르게 나타날 수 있을 것임. Skeptics, cranks, disbelievers. The stock market is overrun with them. It may be one of the reasons equities keep rising. Rarely has the consensus been more uniformly bearish than it is now. Investors are sitting with the lowest allocation to US stocks in almost two decades, have kept cash holdings high for the longest stretch since the dot-com crash and are embracing recession trades more than any time since 2020. But when everyone’s leaning one way, big swings are apt to break out in the other, as the consensus is strained and people give in. Small gains can snowball when the worry is missing out on the next big rally. Lately the concern has been warranted. The S&P 500 just finished the first three months of the year up 7%, rounding out back-to-back quarterly gains. That hasn’t happened during any bear market in the past four decades. Pessimists abound, even after a rally that has added $4 trillion in equity values over nearly six months. The duration of equity strength is getting hard to ignore and calls into question the claim that this rally is nothing but a bear market bounce, a view shared by top-ranked strategists such as Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic. Of the 14 previous bear markets, only two saw the S&P 500 experience back-to-back quarterly gains, in 1981 and 1938. Put another way, history is not on the side of bears when stock momentum is as strong as it has been. “Equities are remarkably resilient. Positioning remains very light,” Reiner wrote in a note. “We all need to ask, is sentiment shifting around the edges? If so, investors need to start making their bets. Real fast.”

Bottom-line: 주식 시장은 회의론자, 불신자로 가득 차 있으며, 이것이 주가가 계속 상승하는 이유가 될 수 있음. 투자자들의 주식에 대한 배분은 18년래 최저치를 기록하고, 닷컴 거품 이후 가장 오랜 기간인 15개월 연속 5% 이상의 현금을 보유하고 있으며, 경기침체를 감안한 거래를 이어가고 있음. 하지만 모두가 한 방향을 이야기할 때면 반대 방향으로의 큰 변동이 발생하기 쉬운 법이며, S&P 500 지수가 그것을 보여줬는데, 올해 1분기도 +7% 상승 마감하면서 14번의 약세장 중 단 두 번 있었던(1938년과 1981년) 일을 재현했음. 이처럼 주식시장의 상승은 시가총애그 4조 달러 가까이 증가시켰지만 여전히 비관론자들이 많은 상태임. 하지만 주식시장의 상승 기간이 길어지면, 과연 약세장의 반등 정도에 그치는게 맞는지에 대한 의문이 커지고 있음. 주식시장의 놀라울 정도로 강한 힘을 보여주고 있는데 반해 투자자들의 주식 보유 규모는 턱없이 가벼운 상태에 있음. 그리고 투자자들이 움직이기 시작한다면, 그 변화는 매우 빠르게 나타날 수 있을 것임. Skeptics, cranks, disbelievers. The stock market is overrun with them. It may be one of the reasons equities keep rising. Rarely has the consensus been more uniformly bearish than it is now. Investors are sitting with the lowest allocation to US stocks in almost two decades, have kept cash holdings high for the longest stretch since the dot-com crash and are embracing recession trades more than any time since 2020. But when everyone’s leaning one way, big swings are apt to break out in the other, as the consensus is strained and people give in. Small gains can snowball when the worry is missing out on the next big rally. Lately the concern has been warranted. The S&P 500 just finished the first three months of the year up 7%, rounding out back-to-back quarterly gains. That hasn’t happened during any bear market in the past four decades. Pessimists abound, even after a rally that has added $4 trillion in equity values over nearly six months. The duration of equity strength is getting hard to ignore and calls into question the claim that this rally is nothing but a bear market bounce, a view shared by top-ranked strategists such as Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic. Of the 14 previous bear markets, only two saw the S&P 500 experience back-to-back quarterly gains, in 1981 and 1938. Put another way, history is not on the side of bears when stock momentum is as strong as it has been. “Equities are remarkably resilient. Positioning remains very light,” Reiner wrote in a note. “We all need to ask, is sentiment shifting around the edges? If so, investors need to start making their bets. Real fast.”

Bottom-line: 물가가 예상보다 낮아지고 소비도 안정되면서 근래 가장 공격적인 금리인상이 막바지에 왔음을 알리는 신호로 작용함. A key gauge of US inflation stepped down last month by more than expected and consumer spending stabilized, suggesting the Federal Reserve may be close to ending its most aggressive cycle of interest-rate hikes in decades.

이렇게 보내 본 분이 있다면, 당신의 시간은 어땠습니까. 개인적으로는 모든게 좋았습니다. 💪