Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 보고서를 통해 현재 성장주를 투자한다면 기업 이익률이 보장되는 성장주를 보유하고, 이익을 내지 못하는 성장주를 피하라고 권고함. 작년 12월 30일부터 2월 1일까지 실질금리가 -44bp 하락하고, 그 이후 3월 8일부터 3월 24일까지 -50bp 추가로 실질금리가 하락했지만, 그 양상은 달랐다는 것임. 특히 현재 주식시장에서는 경제를 자신하고, 채권시장에서는 경제를 비관하고 있기 때문에 이 둘 중 어떤 경우라도 이익률이 좋은 성장주를 보유함이 우세한 전략이란 것임. i) 경제가 좋아서 실질금리가 다시 상승할 경우 수익이 없는 성장주가 가치 할인되어 거래 될 것이며, ii) 경제가 좋지 않을 경우 전통적으로 투자자들은 질적으로 높은 가치를 가지는 주식을 선호했기 때문임. 다만, 이 전략의 가장 큰 위험은 경제가 좋지 않은 가운데 중앙은행이 온건한 통화정책 기조를 유지하는 것임. The decline in bond yields has supported growth stocks YTD but with wide variation. Looking ahead, we recommend investors own high-margin growth stocks and avoid low-margin growth stocks, given the current resilient economic growth pricing within equity markets but pessimistic pricing in rates markets. If the economy avoids recession, real yields are likely to rise and low-margin growth stock valuations are more sensitive to higher yields. If the economy enters recession, equity market pricing of growth will likely deteriorate and history suggests investors will reward "quality" attributes, including high-margin stocks. The key risk to this trade is that current equity market pricing of a contained economic slowdown but a dovish Fed persists.

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Bottom-line: 신용부도스왑이 현물 주식의 가격을 움직이게 할 뿐 아니라 불안 속에 예금이 유출되도록 하는데 수백만 달러 밖에 들지 않는다는 사실을 감안하면, 전세계 금융 관련 규제 기관에서 이를 면밀히 검토해야 한다는 목소리에 동의할 수 밖에 없음. 금융안정위원회는 그동안 금융 시스템에 대해 규제와 개혁, 다양한 노력을 기울인 것을 헛되게 만들고, 투자자들을 불안에 떨게 만든 사태의 중심에 있는 신용부도스왑을 개선하려고 하고 있음. 이들은 이 상품을 매우 불투명하고, 매우 얕으며, 유동성 또한 부족함에도 불구하고 그 파급력이 너무 크다고 평가하고 있음. 이를 개선시키기 위해 거래를 금지하거나 새로운 규칙을 만드는 최후의 수단보다는 예를 들어, 장외거래가 아닌 중앙 거래소를 통해 결제와 청산이 이루어지도록 하는 등의 방법을 검토 중이라 밝힘. Global financial regulators should take a closer look at credit default swaps after relatively small transactions in the market amplified last week’s banking turmoil, according to the European Central Bank’s top oversight official. The Financial Stability Board, which brings together authorities from around the world, could review “how these markets really work,” said Andrea Enria, who leads the ECB’s Supervisory Board. The collapse of several US banks and rescue of Credit Suisse Group AG earlier this month has investors on edge as they question whether other lenders could suffer from rising rates or other pressures. European regulators have sought to underline that they have a close watch on risks and that their banks are on a sounder footing. “Notwithstanding all the efforts we have made with regulatory reform, we see that there are markets like the single name CDS market which are very opaque, very shallow, very illiquid,” said Enria. “With a few millions, you can move the CDS spreads” of a major bank “and contaminate also stock prices and possibly also deposit outflows,” he said, without naming any banks. Speaking at a conference hosted by German newspaper Handelsblatt, Enria suggested that improving the degree of information on the CDS market may be a better course of action for authorities than prohibitions or new rules. “It’s always the last resort for a supervisor to intervene,” he said. “If you had good transparency, for example having these markets all centrally cleared rather than have OTC (over the counter) opaque transactions where you don’t know who is trading, I think that would be already great progress.”

First Citizens Bank & Trust agreed to buy all deposits and loans of SVB Financial Group’s Silicon Valley Bank after it was seized by regulators following a run on the lender.

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Docent: 불확실성과 변동성이 클 때, 투자자들은 그 속에 진실을 찾고 기회를 얻으려 끊임없는 시도를 함. 이것이 과연 옳은 일인가에 대한 도슨트임. 최근 투자자산 시장의 다양한 일들이 시장 참여자들을 자극하며 무언가 행동하게 만들었지만, 대부분의 결과는 실수로 이어졌을 것임. 은행의 위기 속에서도 S&P 500 지수는 2주 연속 상승했고, 국채 또한 경기침체에서부터 50bp의 금리인상, 다시 금융시스템 위기까지 40년래 가장 높은 변동을 무시했다면 상당한 수익을 거둘 수 있었음. 불확실성이 클 때 귀를 닫고 할 수 있는 공부에 최선을 다하고 성급하게 큰 기회를 잡으려 뛰어들지 말라는 조언이 있음. 제이피모건이 자료에서 블라디미르 레닌을 인용하며 “수십년 간 아무일도 일어나지 않을 수도, 단 몇 주 사이 수십년 간의 일이 일어날 수도 있다.“고 표현한 것처럼, 현재 시장은 엄청난 불협화음 속에 있음. 의견이 엇갈리는 현상이 이 시장의 기본적 특성이지만, 분석가들의 S&P 500 지수의 연말 목표치는 47%의 괴리를 보이며 20년래 최대치를 보이고 있음. 국채 시장 또한 중앙은행의 확고한 발언과 반대로 연말까지 100bp 가량의 금리인하에 돈을 걸고 있음. 이런 잡음 사이에서 최근 11영업일 간 국채 가격은 강세론자와 약세론자 모두에게 피해를 줬음. 현금을 많이 보유한 대형 기술주를 필두로 올해의 자산으로 두각을 드러내고 있는 나스닥 100 지수도 연 초 이후 +17% 가까이 상승했지만, 중요한 점은 최고의 5일을 놓쳤다면 이 수익률은 +1%, 최악의 5일을 피했다면 +28%가 되어 있었을 것임. 우리는 지금, 일어나는 모든 일을 알고 통제하며 그 판에 뛰어들어야 할까? The plot twists in markets have lately been riveting. The urge to react has been intense. Doing so has mostly been a mistake. The S&P 500 just capped its second straight up week, and while Treasuries have dealt body blows to short sellers, holding on through the worst volatility in four decades would’ve reaped sizable profits. Closing your ears to cacophony is standard investment advice that is often borne out. “Panicking never pays,” says April LaRusse, head of investment specialists at Insight Investments. “The smartest thing to do when you have a lot of uncertainty is to sit back and gather information and do your analysis and not jump trying to make big changes". “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen,” Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., wrote in a note, alluding to a quotation by Vladimir Lenin. While split opinions are a constant feature in investing, the extent of the divergence has rarely been this broad. In the equity market, the gap between the highest and lowest year-end target for the S&P 500 is 47%, the widest at this time of year in two decades, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Conflict is also on display in fixed income. Even as Powell insisted Wednesday that rate cuts are not his “base case,” bond traders stuck to bets that the central bank will reverse course this year. Swap rates linked to policy meeting dates now show cuts totaling about one percentage point by year-end. Ever-changing views of the economy and Fed have underpinned an almost unprecedented stretch of turbulence in government bonds. For an 11th session through Thursday, two-year Treasury yields moved more than 10 basis points, a run of wild swings not seen since 1981. Among these sessions, seven were up and four down, exerting pain for bulls and bears alike. Amid all the confusion and volatility, the Nasdaq 100 has stood out as one of the best-performing assets this year, thanks to the dominance of cash-rich tech megacaps. While the index is up almost 17%, getting there has been stomach-churning. Bad timing can be punishing: missing the best five days would have left investors with a gain of only 1%. Excluding the worst five days, the Nasdaq 100 would be up 28% this year to date.

Bottom-line: 재무부장관 옐런은 은행의 예금 보호와 관련하여 하루 전과 달라진 발언을 했음. 그녀가 준비한 발표문에서는 필요할 경우 예금을 보호하기 위한 추가 수단을 준비할 수도 있다함. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told US lawmakers on Thursday that regulators would be prepared for further steps to protect deposits if warranted, in new language that differs from her prepared remarks to the Senate a day earlier. Reading prepared remarks that were almost identical to Wednesday’s, Yellen repeated her comment that the government’s recent actions were “taken to ensure that Americans’ deposits are safe". She followed that with a new line: “Certainly, we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted.”

Bottom-line: 파월 의장의 발언 동안 가격의 움직임이 고르지 않을 수 있다는 사실에 투자자들은 익숙하지만, 핵심 인물 둘이 동시간대에 발언을 하고, 그 해석도 상반된다면 그 변동을 감내하기엔 무리가 있음. 파월은 금융환경이 열악해질 경우 예금자 보호를 확대할 가능성을 열어뒀지만, 옐런은 그 희망을 문을 닫아버리며 장 중 상승분을 모두 반납함. Traders are accustomed to a bumpy ride whenever Jerome Powell speaks. But when Powell speaks at the same time Janet Yellen is talking to Congress about the health of the banking sector, the turbulence can get overwhelming. It’s rare that two people of such stature speak at the same time, worse when they project messages that traders interpreted as in opposition. A little while after hearing what they thought was Powell tipping broader protection to depositors should financial stress spread, Yellen came on the feed to knock the hope down. The S&P 500 erased an earlier gain of 0.9%, marking the sixth time this year that an intraday rally of that size was reversed.

Bottom-line: Powell Sets Up Clash With Traders Again. Jerome Powell says Fed officials don’t expect rate cuts this year. That’s not -- at all -- what funds futures or swaps are pricing in. Just as a reminder, the last time the market played chicken with the Fed, Powell won. Traders were forced to swerve when the January jobs data came out. Stocks have just about wiped out their gains.

Maintaining course. The Fed hiked by 25 bps and signaled it's not done despite the banking turmoil.

Bottom-line: 파월의 발언은 종전보다 덜 강경했음. 이를 계량하는 지표는 이제 중립적 위치에 있고, 5월 금리인상이 중단 될 가능성이 높다는 뜻임. Powell’s opening remarks from the post-meeting press conference were much more dovish than the recent trend, though still slightly hawkish. The indicator is quite close to neutral, suggesting the possibility of a pause has increased meaningfully at the May meeting compared with the recent past.

Market Reaction: 시장 참여자들은 중앙은행이 작금의 사태로 통화정책의 발목이 잡히지 않았고, 필요한 경우 지속 금리를 인상하겠단 태도에 실망, 위험자산들의 상승세를 되돌림. Stocks are giving back their earlier gains as Powell sticks with the idea the Fed will raise rates down the line if they have to. The S&P 500 is down 0.2% shortly after 3 p.m. in New York, and the Russell 2000 is down 1%. The Nasdaq 100 is now higher by 0.3% after being up more than 1% earlier. Maybe some traders didn’t like that comment about how the Fed’s hands aren’t tied and it will raise rates higher than expected if needed.

Q&A: 시장 참여자들이 예상하는 금리인하의 경우 경제가 중앙은행이 예측하는 범위에 있다면 그럴 이유가 없다고 함. Bloomberg’s Michael McKee asks about the market pricing in rate cuts later this year...is the market wrong? Powell says if the economy proceeds as policymakers expect, there won’t be a case for rate cuts.

Q&A: 금리인상을 중단해야 하는지를 고려한 사실이 있다고 답함. He’s asked how seriously a pause was considered for this meeting. Powell says they considered it.

Powell: 인플레이션 목표치로 도달하는 과정은 여전히 길 것이며 높은 인플레이션이 초래하는 위험이 크다고 평가함. The process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy. High inflation imposes significant hardship.

Powell: 은행의 문제를 해결하지 않을 수 없으며, 현재 대다수 은행들은 건강한 상태를 유지 중임. 중앙은행 또한 이 일로부터 배우려 함. Serious problems at a small number of banks have emerged. if left unaddressed can undermine confidence in healthy banks. Our banking system is sound and resilient, with strong capital and liquidity. The Fed is committed to learning lessons from this episode.