Macro Trader

Docent: 11월 북아시아 주식시장의 강세에 대한 도슨트입니다. 이번 달 대만 주식시장에 외국인이 6개월 만에 유입, 금액 또한 58억달러로 15년래 최고치를 기록했고, 한국 시장 또한 2개월 연속 20억 달러 이상의 순매수를 기록할 것으로 보입니다. 홍콩 주식시장은 11월 약 20% 상승하며 아시아 및 전세계 다른 지수보다 우월한 성과를 거뒀습니다. 중국에 대한 높은 의존도로 비참한 한 해를 보냈던 홍콩, 한국, 대만과 독립적 소비와 원자재 중심국인 인도네시아와 인도의 질주가 익숙했던 투자자들에게 예상 밖의 움직임이 아닐 수 없습니다. 남아시아에서 북아시아로의 급격한 자금이동은 중국의 바이러스 억제 정책의 점진적 완화에 따른 경제 재개 기대감, 부실 우려에 놓인 부동산에 대한 정책 지원, 그리고 중국과 미국 간 갈등 완화에 따른 반도체 제조업 긴장 완화에 기인합니다. 다수의 투자은행들이 내년은 남아시아 비중을 축소하고 북아시아 비중을 높일 것을 권고하고 있습니다. The nascent revival in North Asian equities is being touted as the start of a potential bull run as bets for China’s gradual reopening as well as the bottoming out of the chip industry intensify. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect Asia’s equity leadership to shift from Southeast Asia and India to markets like China and Korea next year, while Societe Generale SA says Taiwan’s tech-heavy market is also at an inflection point. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. has echoed similar views. Stocks listed in Hong Kong as well as Korea and Taiwan have languished for most of the year owing to their heavy reliance on China’s economy, which has been crimped by stringent Covid controls and a property crisis. Meanwhile, domestic-demand driven southern markets of Indonesia and India boasted resilience. The tables have turned this month after a slew of positive policy moves by Beijing. “Of concern to us is that Southeast Asia is beginning to underperform in the last few weeks, as investors rotate back into North Asia,” said Alexander Redman, chief equity strategist at CLSA. “Indonesia, as a defensive, domestically-orientated commodity exporter, was a logical refuge to ride out the equity storm,” he said, adding that the market will be “less favored as investors reengage some deep value cyclical exposure in North Asia.”. Key equity gauges in Hong Kong have rallied about 20% in November, easily topping the rest of Asia and major global peers, as China urged more targeted Covid restrictions and boosted policy support for the real estate sector. Foreigners have piled $5.8 billion into Taiwan stocks this month, on track for the first inflows in six months and the biggest in 15 years. Net purchases of Korean shares are set to exceed $2 billion for a second straight month. In contrast, Indonesia’s market -- once investors’ favorite as an inflation hedge -- is flat in November, and poised to see monthly flows turn negative for the first time since July. Investors are also more wary about valuations in India, where benchmarks recently hit record highs, with Goldman Sachs expecting the market to relatively underperform in 2023. “Any positive catalysts such as a potential China re-opening and policy support, lowering of geopolitical tensions or tech cycle bottoming is likely to drive a sharp rerating” of North Asian markets, Jefferies strategists led by Desh Peramunetilleke wrote in a note. The brokerage is overweight Hong Kong, China, Korea and Taiwan, neutral on Indonesia and underweight India.

Jean Jullien. 🫥

TGIF! 👋

Bottom-line: 블룸버그 인터뷰를 통해 한국은행 총재는 2%대의 인플레이션으로 통제가 되고 있다는 강력한 신호를 보기 전에 통화정책 선회를 언급하는 것은 시기상조라 함. 목요일 금리인상을 통해 현재 3.5%로 예상되는 최종금리까지 25bp 밑으로 다가왔고, 7명의 의사결정자 중 최소 4명이 3.5% 혹은 그 이하를 현재 인상주기의 끝으로 보고 있기 때문에 물가안정이 최우선 목표임을 다시 한 번 강조함. 총재 본인이 생각하는 최종금리를 밝히진 않고, 다른 의사결정자들의 생각을 존중하지만, 그들이 최종금리에 대한 생각을 바꾸게 되도 놀랍진 않을 것이라 답함. The Bank of Korea needs to see “strong” signs that inflation is under control before discussing any prospect of a pivot away from policy tightening, Governor Rhee Chang-yong said Friday. The BOK came closer to the end of its tightening hike cycle when it raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percentage-point to 3.25% on Thursday. At least four of the seven-member board favor the rate peaking at 3.5% or less. A variety of factors will help determine the course of policy, including Federal Reserve decisions, Covid policies in China and credit-market conditions in Korea, Rhee said in an interview with Bloomberg TV’s Kathleen Hays. Rhee added that he wouldn’t be surprised if some board members changed their mind over the terminal rate. He declined to provide his own forecast, adding that he respected the board’s view. It’s “premature” to discuss any rate cuts and the BOK will need strong evidence of inflation slowing to its mid-term target of a 2% range before the board can discuss the potential for easing policy, he said. The BOK has delivered a total of 2.75 percentage points of rate hikes since August 2021, including two half-point moves. The tightening helped Korea position itself earlier than most nations in the fight against asset bubbles and inflationary pressures. However, the central bank’s faster-than-usual tightening in recent months has fueled credit risks triggered by the default of a local government-backed developer.

대중이 지나치게 붐비는 투자를 피해야 하는 이유에 대한 차트를 아래와 같이 첨부합니다. 아래는 거래가 가장 활황인 주식만 계속 매수했을 경우의 수익률입니다.

사담. 지난 클래스에서 투자자들이 열광하고 붐비는 투자를 피하는데 대한 이야기가 잠시 있었습니다.

Bottom-line: 지난 25년 간 연 평균 25%의 수익률을 거둔 드러켄밀러는 2018년 인터뷰를 통해 주식시장만큼 훌륭한 경제학자는 없다며 경기를 예측하기 좋은 주식시장 지표 및 다른 몇가지 지표를 언급함. 이에 따르면 중기적으로 여전한 침체 위험이 있지만, 단기적으론 침체 위험을 피해 있는 것으로 보임. 하나씩 소개 하자면, i) 주택, 자동차, 소매판매와 같은 경기민감주가 전체 지수보다 상대성과 우위를 기록 중이며, ii) 장단기 금리 차이가 역전 후 다시 가팔라질 때 발생하는 침체 징후를 포착하는데 유용한 초과유동성 또한 계속 하락 중임. 초과 유동성은 장단기 금리차이와 일치하는 방향으로 선행함. iii) 끝으로 금액기준 미국 물류의 65%를 차지하는 트럭 운송의 활황을 짐작해볼 수 있는 트럭 판매는 승용차 판매와 함께 다시 상승함. The risk of a near-term recession is easing, according to an indicator based on the thinking of renowned investor Stanley Druckenmiller. That reduces the immediate threat to equities, but any respite will be temporary as the risk of a recession by the middle half of next year remains very high. Stan Druckenmiller has an enviable record, achieving average annual returns of 30% for 25 consecutive years. “The inside of the stock market is the best economist I know,” said Druckenmiller in a 2018 interview. The behavior of highly cyclical sectors, such as housing, autos and retail, versus the market gauge how likely the economy is to tip into recession. This methodology helped him correctly predict the last four recessions before 2020. Near-term recession risk is likely to be low while such highly cyclical sectors are managing to outperform in aggregate – especially given these sectors are among the most interest-rate sensitive. The curve (2s10s) in the US continues to invert to levels not seen since the early 1980s, suggesting a recession is indeed on the cards. A more imminent sign is when the yield curve begins to steepen. And of that there is little sign. One of the few indicators to lead the yield curve itself is US excess liquidity (the difference between real money growth and economic growth). It has yet to turn up, anticipating no significant re-steepening of the curve in the near future. Similarly, truck sales - an excellent leading gauge of economic activity, with 65% of the dollar value of North American freight moved by trucks - had been falling. Combined with auto sales, they had hit levels that had previously always preceded a recession. But truck and auto sales have definitively bounced and are now growing at 25% a year.

Bottom-line: 타이거 글로벌 자산운용에서 투자했던 비상장 사모 투자자산에 대한 가치평가를 1/4 가까이 상각한 것으로 알려짐. 일부 투자의 경우 상장을 한 뒤 그 가치를 대부분 상실한 곳도 있음. 투자자들은 주식시장이 큰 폭 하락함에 따라 이와 유사한 기업에 대한 가치평가 할인이 뒤따를 것으로 예상함. 이런 회사의 움직임은 높은 성장률만으로 가치를 증명하고 자본 투자를 유입케 하려했던 기업들에게 비관적 소식임. Tiger Global Management marked down the value of its private funds by almost a quarter this year, contributing to a $42 billion decline in assets, one of the industry’s biggest ever. In addition, some of the previously private but now-public companies held by Tiger Global’s venture unit lost value, according to people familiar with the matter. A representative for Chase Coleman’s New York-based firm declined to comment. The unit oversaw about $43 billion as of Sept. 30, down from $65 billion at year-end, after accounting for fundraising and redistributions to investors. The division marked down the value of its private investments by 24%. Assets in Tiger Global’s public investment arm shriveled to $15 billion from $35 billion, the people said. As equity markets have tumbled this year, investors have been waiting to see when the valuations of closely held firms will follow. Tiger Global’s markdowns shed light on what some of the once high-flying private companies may be worth, particularly as many of them have struggled to access capital.

China signaled more monetary policy stimulus is on the table, including a cut to the reserve requirement ratio, as authorities look to boost lending and ramp up support for the economy. 

그가 신호를 주면, 곧 일어났다 합니다.

Bottom-line: S&P 500 지수가 저점에서 15% 가까이 상승하는 동안 중앙은행 인사들은 인플레이션과 지속적인 싸움을 이어갈 것이라 함. 가격과 발언 간 괴리는 향후 점점 완화 될 인플레이션이 통화정책에 제동을 걸 것이란 기대로 설명이 됨. 이런 낙관적 기대에 의한 상승이 어딜 향해 달려가는지 주목할 지점에 왔는데, 지난 3월과 8월에 상승을 반락시킨 지점에 곧 도달하기 때문임. 이는 200일 이동평균선 저항과 저점 대비 70.7%의 피보나치 되돌림 지점인 4,082.94포인트임. The S&P 500’s rebound, which has seen the benchmark notch up gains of nearly 15% since its October lows, has brought a key area of resistance back in vogue. The equity bounce has chugged along despite many Fed officials reiterating that the fight against inflation will continue. However, that divergence can be explained by increasing investor expectations of upcoming inflation data coming in soft, helping the central bank tone down the pace of rate hikes heading into 2023. That’s so far proven to be a shot in the arm for equity bulls. Notwithstanding the optimism, the ongoing advance will run into a hurdle area where a falling trendline from the record peak meets the closely watched 200-day simple moving average and the 70.7% Fibonacci retracement level which previously reversed the two bear-market rallies that peaked out in March and August.